March 8, 2019, 4:58 AM
Recession is coming to town! This is at least what everyone seems to believe right now. But are they right? The aim of this edition of the Market Overview is to answer this million-dollar question. We start from the official indicators used by the NBER (such as real income or industrial production) to authoritatively determine the beginnings and endings of the US recession. Then, we examine historically the two most reliable indicators of the American slumps: the unemployment rate and the yield curve. Last but not least, we analyze other important indicators, such as jobless claims, auto sales or consumer sentiment, to assess the state of the US economy and to draw important conclusions for the precious metals investors.
However, it’s not that the whole report is devoted to the recession and ways to predict it. We could not ignore the spike in the price of palladium – hence, the first part of our report is about the recent developments in the palladium (and platinum) markets, in particular in the context of the dynamic changes in the automotive industry and tense political situation in South Africa.
February 1, 2019, 6:21 AM
Old continent, the global hegemon, and the rising power. Europe, the United States, and China – where will the black swan land?
On the surface, the world is in an excellent shape. There is a slowdown in GDP growth, but the global economy is still expanding well. In most developed countries, inflation is stable, while unemployment rate is very low. However, investors feel that something is in the air. What will, and where, surprise the world tomorrow? Will it be Donald Trump’s tweet? Will Brexit finally happen? Will Eurozone go bankrupt? Will China fall into recession? Will there be a war over the South China Sea?
In this edition of the Market Overview, we answer some of these questions. The starting points of our analysis are two important anniversaries. We celebrate 20 years of the euro and 40 years of a market reform in China. We show that although the construction of the Eurozone is flawed, the rumors about the death of euro are exaggerated.
It’s unimaginable what great progress China made in the last forty years. The rise of such economic power triggered many fears (or hopes) about the future international order – but, as we present, the China’s threat is overblown. The slowdown in China’s economic growth is more probable however, which will not be meaningless for the gold market. Last but not least, we examine whether, as some analysts claim, 2019 will be similar to 2016, drawing important conclusions for the gold outlook for the upcoming months.
January 11, 2019, 6:19 AM
We always have mixed feelings when we write January editions of the Market Overview. On the one hand, we are always surprised how quickly a year has passed. Time runs so fast – only gold stays unmoved, shining for the eternity.
On the other hand, we like summaries as we always learn something new about the gold market – something we can share with our clients. And we also like writing fundamentals forecasts, as it forces us to reject accidental movements and all that informational noise. It pushes us to focus on what is really the most important for the gold market, and thus, our client’s profits.
In this edition of the Market Overview, we will summarize last year in the gold market from the perspective of its fundamentals. It was quite a fascinating period. The Fed hiked the federal funds rate four times. The ECB ended its quantitative easing. Populists won elections in Italy and clashed with the EU Commission over the fiscal policy. Democrats took over the control of the House. Angela Merkel announced her resignation from the leader of the CDU. Trump’s tax cuts became effective, widening the US fiscal deficit. Trade wars intensified. The stock market corrected. Inflation has peaked. The cryptocurrencies plunged. The bond yields surged.
What is important is that our summary is not merely backward-looking. On the contrary, the analysis should help investors better understand the gold market, and draw investment conclusions for the New Year.
We will also present our fundamental outlook for 2019, presenting our base scenario and its implications for the gold market. We will focus on the impact of the macroeconomic drivers, such as the interest rates, the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary policies, the US fiscal policy, etc.
Last but not least, we will analyze whether investors should expect recession in 2019 or 2020. We conclude that the warnings against the next crisis may be premature, drawing significant implications for the adequate position in the precious metals market.
December 7, 2018, 6:18 AM
There are plenty of myths about the gold market, in particular about the alleged factors which are supposed to prevent gold prices from declining. In this edition of the Market Overview, we refute five of them:
- Trade wars and lax fiscal policy are negative for the US dollar and positive for gold.
- Central banks’ purchases create a floor for gold prices.
- The price of gold cannot decline and stay below the gold production costs.
- There is a disconnection between paper and physical gold prices and the former has to catch up with the latter eventually.
- The extreme bearish CoT positioning necessarily implies the turning point in the gold market.
These statements are all false. Let’s read our monthly report and find out why they are wrong. When you understand it, you will be smarter than 90 percent of gold investors. And you will significantly boost your potential to gain. We do not offer a magic trick to take risk-free and enormous profits. But we provide you with knowledge and tools empowering you and enabling you to take advantage of each market situation and invest accordingly.
November 2, 2018, 9:18 AM
The mid-term elections are coming! Will they revolutionize American policy and affect the gold prices? Will Democrats take control of Congress and impeach Trump? Let’s read our monthly report and find out, as we devote one part of it to the analysis of possible links between the likely results of the elections and the gold market.
October 5, 2018, 9:50 AM
Quarter, year, and ten years. That’s what we are writing about in this edition of the. We start with the summary of the third quarter of 2018 and our outlook for the end of the year. Next, due to the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, we present lessons from that event for the gold investors. We also offer an update on the . The program started one year ago, in October 2017, so it is an excellent opportunity to come back to the issue. Last but not least, we analyze whether POTUS can reduce the Fed’s independence. The recent Trump’s remarks worried investors, so they require a comment. The weakening of the could alter its and the gold market – but is it possible? Let’s read our monthly report and find out!
September 6, 2018, 12:21 PM
The end is near! Thehikes and it never ends well! The yield curve is almost flat. Recession is just around the corner! This is what one can hear every day. But are these gloomy predictions justified?
In this edition of the, we will examine this million-dollar question. We let our imagination run wild and sketch the rosy picture. Then, comparing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, we will be able to provide our Readers with a data-based and realistic gold market overview.
In particular, we will thoroughly examine the previousto answer the question whether the next recession is likely to occur in the near future. Based on our historical analysis, we will draw some important investment conclusions for the gold investors. Last but not least, we will discuss the again. We have written about it in the last edition of the Market Overview, but the issue is so hot that it definitely needs more attention. We closely observe it for our Readers – and we will share our thoughts with them.
August 3, 2018, 9:41 AM
How quickly time passes! It has been nine years since theended. What does it imply for the economy and the gold market? Are we on the verge of another crisis?
In this edition of the, we will answer these questions. We will summarize the gold market in H1 2018 and provide tips on what to expect next. In particular, we will analyze the state of the current economic expansion, and whether or not it will end soon as many analysts believe.
Also, we will examine the two hottest issues in the past six months, or even the whole recovery. First of all,has come back. After years of being subdued and resulting in fears of , it has reached the Fed’s 2-percent target. Will that make gold shine – or not necessarily?
The second important theme we will discuss is the. It has become very flat – actually, we are only about 25-30 basis points from the inversion. As the inverted yield curve is believed to be a good predictor of the recession, we will dig into the topic and draw conclusions for the gold market.
July 3, 2018, 11:58 AM
In June, the Fed hiked thefor the seventh time in this tightening cycle. A lot of people worry that the Fed’s unwind of its combined with the higher and the stronger will bring the next catastrophe to the world. Italian yields have already spiked, while Argentina and Turkey face economic crises.
In this edition of the, we will dig into this topic. We will examine in detail the recent decisions undertaken by the and the , the two systematically important central banks. After the ECB decision to stop its bond-purchase program in December 2018, there will be no on both sides of the pond. We will analyze what it means for the gold market. Given the fears that the will cause the next crisis, we will examine this hypothesis in the context of the gold market, focusing on the emerging countries, which are especially sensitive to changes in the Fed’s stance.
Last but not least, we will go for another trip to Italy, to reflect on the possible implications of the Italian turmoil on theand the gold market. And we will try to establish whether the next crisis in the Eurozone is coming.
June 5, 2018, 8:25 AM
We live in turbulent times. Truism? Obviously. But see for yourself how much has changed since the last edition of the. The 2-year Treasury jumped above 2.5 percent. The broad index surged above 120, while the index against major currencies above 89. The declined below 1.175 against the . The price of gold dived under $1,300. Are there more declines in gold prices ahead of us?
In this edition of the, we will answer this key question. To achieve this ambitious goal, we will carefully examine the recent macroeconomic developments, such as the rising and rapidly appreciating U.S. dollar – and their likely effects on the gold market. Given the enormous global pile of debt, which is sensitive to changes in rates and greenback’s strength, we will analyze whether, or how strongly, the debt crisis threatens us.
Last but not least, we will go on a journey to sunny Italy to inspect the country’s not-so-sunny political and economic outlook. As it is one of the biggest economies in the world, we will investigate what could be the possible consequences of recent populist breakthrough in Italy for gold.
May 4, 2018, 10:07 AM
Earth is not round. Neither flat. It is an oblate spheroid, but we model it as if it was round. In economics and finance, we also use a lot of models. We need to simplify reality – abstracting from some accidental features enables us to focus on the essence of things. When we analyze the concept of a horse, we can ignore its particular color.
When we model gold prices, we also abstract from some factors. In modern complex economies, everything is interdependent. But we cannot fall into nihilism and say that everything affects everything, including the price of gold. There are some casual relationships – and some drivers are more important than others.
In this edition of the, we focus on the most significant drivers of gold prices. We distinguish three such factors – and we examine how they affect the price of gold. In general – and in the first four months of 2018 in particular. Knowing what really impacts the gold prices enables investors to make better decisions. They can skip the analyses which concentrate on the or the average production costs – and focus on the true factors.
Although we argue that there are only few key drivers of the gold prices, we show that it is extremely difficult to model the price of gold. We do not offer oversimplified solutions, as many analysts do. Instead, we take our time to explain how the gold drivers are really interconnected – and how to use this knowledge in the.
April 6, 2018, 4:57 AM
Roger Waters, once the leader of the legendary Pink Floyd, released a solo album entitled “” in the 1990s. Looking at some data, we would describe the 2010s rather as “Indebted to Death”. What does it mean for the gold market?
In the last edition of the Market Overview, we wrote about the debt cycles. In this edition of, we will continue this topic, analyzing the current dynamics in the U.S. debt. In particular, we will focus on the , which has just surpassed $21 trillion, and the margin debt, which has been recently rising as well.
Based on Damodaran’s classification of investments and his distinction between pricing game and value game, we will determine whether gold is an asset, a commodity, a currency or a collectible. When we establish once and for all the nature of gold, we will be able to formulate a proper philosophy for investing in gold. Adopting an appropriate stance will enable investors not to commit simple mistakes and to boost their gains.
March 2, 2018, 7:00 AM
February was hot. The stock market crashed. It partially rebounded, but where are we now – and where are we going? In this edition of, we will analyze what does the recent correction in the S&P 500 Index imply for the gold prices.
February 1, 2018, 12:40 PM
The first month of 2018 is behind us. It was exciting period for the gold market, as the shiny metal jumped again above $1,300. The two most important macroeconomic themes in January were the so-called Great Unwind of theand the weakening U.S. dollar.
In this edition of, we will focus on these key issues. First, we will examine what the Great Unwind implies for the and gold. In a response to the , the major central banks boosted their balance sheets. A decade later, there is a strong economic growth momentum, so we head into the Great Unwind. The tightening of monetary policy and higher could be negative for gold, but more hawkish and would mean narrower between the and other major central banks.
Second, we will expand our analysis on the future of the greenback. In particular, we will answer the question of why the American currency has been falling like a stone recently, despite the. We will also explore the historical and cycles in both the U.S. dollar and gold. As the yellow metal has a strong negative with the (and the usual relationship between the gold prices and broke down temporarily), the trend in this currency is likely to be the vital driver in the gold market in 2018.
January 3, 2018, 3:24 PM
This was another fascinating year. Perhaps it was not as eventful as 2016 (when the Brexit referendum and Trump’s triumph in the presidential election happened), but it was still very interesting. Trump officially became the President of the United States, while Emmanuel Macron won the French elections. Later this year, Trump almost unleashed nuclear war on the North Korea. And therallied at the end of 2017, drawing the attention of the world. The last year was also a time of changes within the – Powell was nominated as Yellen’s successor. But generally it was a rather politically calm and economically positive year, despite the natural disasters, which may explain the modest gains in the gold market. The conflict over North Korea did not explode, the U.S. stock market continued its upward move, and the Fed gradually tightened its . The global economic growth accelerated and became more synchronized.
In this edition of, we will summarize the last year in the gold market from the perspective of its fundamentals. This analysis should help investors better understand the gold market, and draw for the New Year. We will also present our gold outlook for 2018, presenting the base scenario and examining some or potential triggers for the . We will focus on the impact of the macroeconomic trends, the Fed’s monetary policy and the on the price of gold. Given that in the long run the gold trade is generally about the confidence in the greenback, the fate of this currency may be the biggest driver in the gold market next year.
December 1, 2017, 8:14 AM
In the last edition of the, we analyzed the candidates for the next Fed’s Chair. In line with our prediction, Trump nominated Jerome Powell for this position. Hence, in this issue next, we examine in detail what the Yellen’s replacement by Powell implies for the gold market. We will also discuss the Taylor Rule and its impact on the yellow metal in a more detailed way. There is still a long way to implement a more rule-based policy by the , but investors should be prepared, especially if John Taylor joins the . And as the U.S. central bank started unwinding its in October, we will analyze its hitherto and potential impact on the financial markets and the price of gold. Last but not least, we will, as usual, provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question of how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last quarter and what investors should expect in the last month of the year. In particular, we will address the recent flattening of the yield curve and whether it will support bullion prices.
November 2, 2017, 11:56 AM
In the special part of the current edition of the, which has been already released, we have analyzed who, among the five candidates, would be the best and the worst for the gold market as the next Fed Chair. In the rest of the report, we will focus on the “mystery of lacking inflation” and its implication for the gold market. We will also examine the potential effects of lowering the inflation target by the Fed or of adopting a more rule-based approach, in line with Taylor’s ideas. Last but not least, we will, as usual, provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question of how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last month and what investors should expect in the last two months of the year. In particular, we will analyze whether the December curse is likely to happen, i.e. whether the gold will bottom in the last month of the year, as it did in both 2015 and 2016.
October 23, 2017, 5:55 AM
President Trump is to announce the next chair of the Federal Reserve soon. We invite you to read our today’s article about the candidates for the Fed Chair and find out who will be the best (and who the worst) for the gold market.
October 3, 2017, 1:12 PM
In the last edition of the, we focused on the economic rebound in the Eurozone and from North Korea. In this issue of our report, we stay in Asia, as we will analyze the link between the Chinese and gold. We will also examine China’s role in the gold market, as well as the recent developments in the China’s economy. Last but not least, we will, as usual, provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question of how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last quarter and what investors should expect in the last three months of the year.
September 5, 2017, 7:01 AM
In the last edition of the, we noted that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world.” In this issue of our report, we will, as usual, provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question of how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last month and whether the sideways trend in the gold market will finally end, given the recent gold’s jump above $1,300. We will focus on the current developments in the Old Continent, examining in detail whether the Eurozone economy has really accelerated and, if yes, what it implies for the gold market. We will also study how the yellow metal has reacted historically to threats from North Korea – such an analysis should help investors to take appropriate positions in the gold market during the elevated tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.
August 1, 2017, 6:28 AM
In the last edition of the, we analyzed the investment potential of and palladium. We noted that the decline in diesel vehicles and the growth of electric cars could disrupt the demand for both these metals. In this issue of our report, we will dig into this topic, examining in detail how the looming changes in the automotive industry are likely to affect . Last but not least, we will also provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question of how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last month. In particular, we will focus on the recent hawkish shift among the major central banks in the world.
July 6, 2017, 2:15 PM
Investing inis generally associated with and . However, this group of chemical elements also includes the platinum-group metals, of which and palladium are the most widely traded. This is why in this edition of the Market Overview we will analyze the investment potential of these two precious metals. To achieve this goal, we will examine the demand and supply outlook for these white metals and the pros and cons of adding them to one’s .
We also provide investors with an update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last month. In particular, we will summarize the first half of 2017 in the gold market from the perspective of its fundamentals. This analysis should help investors drawfor the remainder of the year.
June 6, 2017, 11:20 AM
In the previous edition of the, we pointed out that “geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market.” However, the French presidential election was a turning point for the yellow metal, which started to decline after centrist Emmanuel Macron triumphed in the first round. Gold lost about 4.8 percent between April 21 and May 9, when the recent rally has begun. Does it mean more outlook for the gold market?
In this edition of the, we will provide an investors update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market, answering the question how the medium-term outlook for the gold market has changed over the last month. In particular, we will outline a macroeconomic outlook in the context of a ‘reflation debate’. Is reflation coming or was the recent uptick in inflation only temporary? We will also analyze and their possible implications for the , focusing on the impact of diminished on the yellow metal. We will also examine how the EUR/JPY exchange rate can affect the price of gold, as some analysts point out the negative correlation between this cross rate and gold price. And finally, we will find out whether gold mining production has peaked and whether it is important for gold investors at all.
May 3, 2017, 2:38 PM
In the first quarter of 2017 gold gained about 9 percent. In April, the yellow metal continued its rally due to the uncertainty about French elections and due to rising tensions about Syria and North Korea. Geopolitical risks clearly won with a hawkish Fed in a tug of war in the gold market. Does it mean moreoutlook for the gold market?
In this edition of the, we will provide investors update on recent fundamental drivers of the gold market. In particular, we will analyze the most important – such as presidential elections in France, the formal triggering of Brexit and changes in Trump’s stance – and their possible implications for the . We will also examine the macroeconomic front, focusing on the receding ‘Trump ’ and the Fed’s plans to shrink its . How has the medium-term outlook for the gold market changed over the last month?
April 5, 2017, 2:38 PM
Gold started well this year: it rallied about 9 percent in the first quarter of 2017 (and about 11 percent from the bottom at the end of December 2016). Has it entered a, or have we just witnessed a before the storm? On the one hand, fundamental factors remain rather negative for the yellow metal over the medium-term. However, gold prices have recently shown a remarkable resilience to hawkish comments and actions from the . What does it mean for the gold market and which way will gold go?
In this edition of the, we will dig into several important changes which have happened since our latest update. In particular, we will analyze the impact of the March meeting on the yellow metal. We will also examine the Trump’s recent actions, as well as geopolitical developments in Europe, and their potential implications for the price of gold. Last but not least, we will summarize the first quarter in the gold market from the perspective of its fundamentals. This analysis should help investors draw for the remaining part of the year.
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