June 20, 2018, 7:50 AM
Gold declined yesterday and the rest of the precious metals sector followed. Silver stocks are even quite close to breaking to new 2018 lows and gold stocks just confirmed a critical move that happened last Friday, which has very important implications going forward. However, this week’s turning points are about to come into play – what’s likely to happen?
June 19, 2018, 8:14 AM
Practically nothing happened yesterday in gold, silver, mining stocks, USD Index, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY. Nothing happened in terms of the daily closing prices and we didn’t see much action intraday either. Yet, it doesn’t mean that there were no implications. Conversely, in case of one part of the precious metals market, the lack of action was very important. And it has impact on the short-term outlook.
June 18, 2018, 9:53 AM
The top in the precious metals market is in and there’s no doubt about it. Many daily gains were erased during just one session and those who were prepared profited significantly. You were. Still, let’s keep in mind that no trade is definitely good or bad until its completed. The question, therefore, is if we are close to a good exit price for this trade, are there no meaningful support levels nearby that could trigger a corrective upswing? In other words, the question is about gold’s near-term downside target. The even more important follow-up is what to do with this knowledge – should one prepare to exit the short position shortly, or should one see right through the correction?
June 15, 2018, 11:45 AM
June 15, 2018, 9:23 AM
Silver soared, while gold and mining stocks moved higher and reached new monthly highs. All that despite a move higher in the USD Index. It seems to be a clear bullish combination for the PMs. The moon appears to be at hand. Is it the last chance to jump into the precious metals market with both feet?
June 14, 2018, 10:00 AM
Yesterday’s session was quite volatile, just as one might have expected it to be.It was the interest rate decision day in the US and the first of this week’s monetary authorities’ comments. It was volatile, but it did not result in any meaningful changes in gold or mining stocks. The only thing that was really affected was – once again – silver. Its strength was clear and since we saw it for yet another day in a row, it’s obvious that it means something. Is silver on a verge of a massive rally?
June 13, 2018, 7:50 AM
Almost nothing happened on the precious metals market yesterday, or at least that may seem to be the case as the first sight. And that’s true if one doesn’t count the spike in GLD’s volume, but there was something else that actually should have caught one’s attention and it probably wasn’t the case for many gold traders. Silver stocks just broke to new monthly low. What does this tell us?
June 12, 2018, 8:21 AM
In our previous analyses we wrote about silver’s outperformance as something bearish and we saw the latter once again yesterday. The difference, however, was that this time, the white metal’s upswing was accompanied by higher mining stock prices. The latter sometimes indicates the beginning of a rally, so the above might be viewed as a bullish invalidation of silver’s previous signals. Did the outlook really change yesterday?
June 11, 2018, 8:02 AM
In the past several analyses, we emphasized the boring nature of the current situation in the precious metals market and its implications. Friday’s session took it to the extreme as virtually nothing happened during the session. At the first sight. Those, who look beyond the usually analyzed aspects, have noticed an important breakdown in one part of the precious metals market and they see that PMs are on a verge of making an even more profound breakthrough. Analogous breakthrough meant a critical and potentially lucrative move in the past… What are the PMs really telling us?
June 8, 2018, 8:28 AM
We just saw another specific divergence on the precious metals market. Part thereof – silver – visibly rallied once again (especially on an intraday basis), while both key proxies for mining stocks – another important part of the PM sector – HUI Index and GDX ETF, were down. Investors wanting to check what’s really going on are looking at gold for guidance. They aren’t getting any, as gold didn’t really change (which seems bearish compared to silver’s rally), but at the same time, it’s above the declining trend channel, which may appear bullish. What should one make of all this?
June 7, 2018, 7:15 AM
We just saw a specific divergence on the precious metals market. Part thereof – silver – visibly rallied, while the key proxy for gold stocks – another important part of the PM sector – HUI Index, was up by a mere 0.12%. Investors wanting to check what’s really going on are looking at gold for guidance. They aren’t getting any, as gold didn’t really change (which seems bearish compared to silver’s rally), but at the same time, it’s above the declining trend channel, which may appear bullish. What should one make of all this?
June 6, 2018, 7:36 AM
Gold, silver, and mining stocks moved higher once again yesterday and the former even managed to move above the declining trend channel. Breakouts are bullish and thus the outlook for gold improved significantly… Or did it? Gold’s price in terms of the euro and gold’s relative performance to silver and mining stocks make replying to the above question quite easy. Looking at the relative price moves on a day-to-date basis doesn’t provide any interesting implications, but who says that it’s the only way in which one can examine them?
June 5, 2018, 7:45 AM
In yesterday’s alert, we elaborated on how boring the situation in the precious metals market has been and what implications it has going forward, especially in tune with the True Seasonal tendencies. Yesterday’s performance in the precious metals market serves as a perfect confirmation of what we wrote yesterday, and the details of the session allows us to make even more specific prediction. There was a specific sign in the mining stocks that’s practically invisible to those, whose analysis of the sector doesn’t extend beyond looking at the GDX ETF.
June 4, 2018, 5:00 AM
Gold moved lower in May and it’s also down in June, but the price action is far from being spectacular. The overall volatility is still very low and the situation in the precious metals sector is simply extremely boring. But with May now being over and with a new month, new factors are likely to come into play and the odds are that this month will be anything but boring. Especially, if we see the continuation in the analogy that practically nobody seems to realize.
June 1, 2018, 8:50 AM
The USD Index moved a bit lower yesterday, and the precious metals sector reacted by… moving lower as well, which likely caught many gold investors by surprise. Not us. Gold and USD are doing exactly what seemed likely at this time and it has implications for the following days as well. In addition to discussing the above, today's alert includes an in-depth analysis of the little-known relationship between gold and the Japanese stock market. There's more than one signal coming from this analysis and all of them seem important at this time.
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