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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • Gold: What Comes Up, Must Co...rrect

    November 15, 2019, 6:13 AM

    In yesterday's analysis, we wrote about the likely breakdown below the rising wedge pattern in the USD Index, the decline that was likely to follow, and the rally in gold and silver that was likely to emerge as a result. It all materialized in the above-mentioned way, but today's pre-market trading saw gold and silver moving lower, so you're probably wondering if the rally is already over.

    In our view, it's not likely. Not yet.

    First, let's take a look at the USD Index.

    Is the USD Index Done Declining?

    The breakdown below the very short-term rising wedge pattern resulted in a major decline. "Major" from the very short-term point of view as it's been the biggest daily decline that we saw this month. Apart from that, it was not very significant. The USDX closed right at its 50-day moving average without breaking below it, which is probably why the decline wasn't deeper. The 50-day MA has been providing support quite reliably in the previous months. It was not always strong support, but often meaningful enough to make it useful as a trading tool. It stopped the decline yesterday, but we continue to think that the index will still move lower, just as it did in two previous cases this year.

    The green and blue dashed lines represent declines that are similar to the October decline. The rallies that followed them were quite sharp, but they too had smaller pauses within them. Both: March-April, and July rallies consolidated after the USDX moved above its 50-day moving average.

    The short-term decline that we saw so far is too little compared to what we saw in early April and in mid-June. Consequently, the odds are that the USD Index will decline some more before soaring to new highs.

    This means that gold is likely to move higher before plunging.

    • If that's so, then why did gold decline in overnight trading?

    No market can move up or down in a straight line and it's true not only in case of the big, long- or medium-term moves, but also in case of the immediate-term price swings. Gold corrected to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level after a 2-day rally, then it bounced and went on to decline a bit more. That's relatively normal and nothing to be concerned about. The very short-term outlook remains bullish. If gold breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1457), the above might change, but that's not the case so far.

    Do you recall the early-November turnaround, and in particular, what clearly indicated it? It was the triple reversal based on the triangle-vertex-reversal approach. This useful technique is providing us with new indications for the next few weeks, and knowing them in advance provides a substantial edge over other investors. We will keep these timely details (as well as profit-take levels for the current profitable trading position in gold, silver, and miners) to our subscribers. Please note that you can still join them at less than tenth of its regular value - the details are just $9 bucks and a few minutes away. Thanks to the overnight correction, you just got an extra chance to enter the long trade at relatively low prices - don't waste it.

  • Riding the Bullish Wave in Gold and Silver

    November 14, 2019, 6:56 AM

    In yesterday's analysis, we emphasized that the short-term outlook for the precious metals sector became bullish, and we discussed the silver market in great detail. Both: gold and silver are now higher than they were when we posted yesterday's analysis, which means that taking profits off the table in case of the previous short position was likely a good idea. Since we provided a lot of silver details yesterday, in today's analysis, we'll put greater emphasis on what's happening in the rest of the precious metals sector. In particular, we'll look at the short-term developments in the mining stocks. But first, let's take a look at the very specific chart pattern that we have on the USD Index chart.

    Spotlight on the USD Index

    In yesterday's Alert, we commented on the USDX in the following way:

    Besides, it appears that the USD Index needs a breather as well.

    Why? Because it just formed a bearish shooting star candlestick - one of the common reversal patterns. The green and blue dashed lines represent declines that are similar to the October decline. The rallies that followed them were quite sharp, but they too had smaller pauses within them. Both: March-April, and July rallies consolidated after the USDX moved above its 50-day moving average. This happened recently and the reversal shooing star suggests that the time for the corrective downswing is here.

    At the same time, it seems that we are seeing a quick shift in the gold-USD dynamics. Gold recently managed to decline regardless of USD's daily show of strength or weakness, but this seems to be changing today. The USDX is up by less than 0.1%, which should theoretically make gold drop at least somewhat. Instead, gold is more than 0.5% higher so far today.

    Both: USD's possible short-term decline, and the temporary change in the gold-USD link point to higher gold prices in the near term (perhaps until the end of the month or so).

    The bullish implications of the gold-USD link clearly remain intact. Gold moved higher yesterday, even though the USDX ended the session slightly higher. Gold is clearly showing that it wants to move higher in the next few days.

    Since the USDX didn't decline after the shooting star reversal, didn't it just show strength? Not necessarily. You see, it didn't soar either. Instead, it continued to trade back and forth in an increasingly tight trading range, thus creating a rising wedge pattern. You can see it more clearly on the below 4-hour chart.

    If rising wedge patterns are broken to the downside, they are likely to result in quite sharp declines. This means that while we think the USD Index is going to rally to much higher levels in the following months, it seems that it could move sharply lower in the short run.

    Given gold's recent very short-term (and very short-term only) resilience, the above is likely to translate to a sizable short-term rally in the yellow metal.

    The Short-Term in PMs

    The most important thing about the above chart is that it shows that miners' strength didn't disappear. Conversely, even though they corrected some of their gains before the session ended, miners have moved much higher than either gold or silver did on a relative basis. By relative, we mean compared to the November decline. Gold and silver were barely up, but miners temporarily erased about half of the decline.

    Both metals are higher in today's pre-market trading (above yesterday's highs, meaning that everyone who got aboard with our long position is already profitable) which suggests that mining stocks will rally once again today.

    Gold and silver were rather reluctant to rally more profoundly yesterday because they just verified breakdowns below the previous support levels and the latter turned into resistance. And they would have likely managed to get back above these levels - if they received help from the USD Index. But they didn't - at least so far. Given the big number of news releases that we're going to get today and tomorrow, it's quite likely that one - or a combination of them - will serve as a trigger for the moves that technicals predicted beforehand.

    Our subscribers' profits are growing - this time thanks to a fresh new long position in gold, silver and mining stocks. Would you like to join them and quickly get all the profit-take levels (we aim to catch the easiest part of the move)? All it takes is 9 bucks and a less than a few minutes of your time - gold and silver are already up today - position yourself to profit before the move is over.

  • The Case for a Silver Rally

    November 13, 2019, 8:30 AM

    Yes, you read that right. Despite all the bearish developments that we described in the previous analyses, and despite myriads of bearish factors that remain in place for the following months, it seems that the white metal is about to rally. Gold, and mining stocks could move higher as well, and we'll move to that shortly. For now, let's talk silver.

    (click the above chart to enlarge it)

    In particular, we're going to discuss the SLV ETF. This ETF has one big advantage over silver futures chart that we feature regularly. It puts emphasis on price gaps and shows only that trading which took place when the U.S. market was open. This distinction can be helpful in determining support and resistance levels as price gaps tend to provide such. In fact, the late-September bottom formed once silver touched the upper border of its price gap.

    The SLV was attempting to break below the lower border of the gap and it has failed to do so three times. This serves as an indication that the white metal is not yet ready to break lower. The price gap on its own would not be strong enough to make the short-term silver outlook bullish all by itself, but that's not the only thing that's pointing to higher silver prices in the near term.

    The RSI indicator (upper part of the chart) is close to 30, and that's when silver's short-term rallies used to start.

    More interestingly, the Stochastic indicator just moved to levels that are low enough to indicate a short-term buying opportunity on their own. This simple technique worked very well in the previous 12 months. Almost exactly 1 year ago it confirmed a medium-term bottom, in early March it indicated a short-term buying opportunity, and in mid-May it was very close to pinpointing the exact bottom before the mid-year rally. We saw Stochastic close to the buy line also at the end of September, which doesn't really count as a true bullish signal, but silver moved higher nonetheless. So, we have three out of three efficiency with a little bonus confirmation from about 1.5 months ago. While this doesn't make a short-term rally inevitable, it does make it quite likely.

    And now for the final silver sign - the time. Silver tends to move in a very specific way. It moves very fast for a few days, only to act very calm in the next several days. Some might say that it's similar to how spiders move in terms of seconds. Personally, we find the silver view much more appealing... What does this have to do with the chance for a short-term upswing in silver? Quite a lot.

    Silver already lost its downward momentum as its been calm for a few days now. This characteristic pattern is what we saw also when silver completed a broad top (just as it did recently) earlier this year. In early March, the fourth day of the calm after the storm, was actually a local bottom that was followed by a rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Not a ground-breaking rally, but definitely something one would prefer to ride on the long side of the market rather than being short.

    Just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, one analogy to the previous decline isn't necessary meaningful. But that was not the only case. Silver declined in a very similar manner after the 2016 rally.

    (click on the chart to enlarge it)

    As you can see, silver losing its downward momentum after a volatile decline was how practically all bottoms of the late-2016 decline formed. We saw the same thing in case of the first two important bottoms of 2017.

    The silver seasonality also suggests that the short-term decline in the white metal might be over or close to being over as local bottoms tend to form close to the middle of November.

    What does it all come to? It means that - as far as the next week or two are concerned - the outlook for silver just became bullish. In fact, we just wrote to our subscribers that we're taking profits off the table in case of the short positions and in today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert, we clearly outlined the details of making money on the upcoming upswing. These details cover positions in gold, silver, UGLD, USLV, GDX, NUGT, and JNUG. And they can all be yours for just $9 as that's how little it takes to subscribe for the first 3 weeks. Subscribe and grab this opportunity while you can.

  • Gold Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally

    November 12, 2019, 6:54 AM

    Our summary of the current situation in the precious metals is not going to differ much from what we wrote yesterday, and the reason is simple. The decline in gold, silver, and miners is developing just as we've been expecting it to. Most importantly, gold has just confirmed its breakdown and everything that we reported on gold's outlook and price targets just got a huge confirmation.

    Let's take a look at what gold, silver, and mining stocks did in the last couple of days.

    The Recent Days in PMs

    Gold broke below the lowest closing price of September and it just verified this breakdown by closing below it for three consecutive trading days, and that includes the weekly close too. That's a clear way for gold to say that a relatively broad top has been formed and that lower prices are going to follow.

    Silver broke not only below its September low, but also below its rising red support line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Technically, silver's breakdown was even more important than the one in gold. The fact that the white metal managed to close the week below the combination of three support levels is bearish, but it will become much more so only after it's verified.

    • So, isn't it best to wait for the breakdown in silver to be confirmed, before aiming to profit on the decline?

    That's one way to do it, and if anyone wants to take this route - sure, it's their capital. We think that having a position open right now is better from the risk to reward point of view because of the confirmed breakdown in gold, and because of multiple signs that we have covered in our previous analyses, and that we can't discuss on each day - there's simply not enough space and time to again go through all the bearish factors that remain in place right now.

    It is usually the case that three consecutive closes below a certain level are necessary for the market to verify the breakdown, but given how strongly correlated gold and silver are, the odds are that a slide in gold will trigger a powerful slide in silver as well. And gold's plunge could start any day, hour, or minute.

    • Ok, but what about the miners' strength? They just moved higher yesterday, even though gold didn't.

    That's true, but it's also true that they did the very same thing just several days ago, during the previous pause. On November 5th and 6th, miners moved higher on an intraday basis even though gold rallied only once in intraday terms. Moreover, November 5th - the first of the small, two-day, corrective upswing - was the day when the HUI opened lower but then moved up during the day. That's exactly what happened on Friday - the first day of the current, two-day, corrective upswing.

    Given the above similarity and the very bearish follow-up that we saw on November 7th (big plunge across the precious metals' board), it's hard to view miners' performance as bullish. Besides, if the miners are really showing strength here and the decline in gold and silver continues today, then the former will easily repeat their supposedly bullish signal, indicating a local bottom. At this time, such a scenario seems doubtful.

    The gold market has been declining just as we expected it to and it's likely to decline some more before we see a bigger turnaround. Knowing when to exit a short position and when to enter a long one is the essential part of making money on this move. They say that the universe does not reward one for what they know, but for what they do with it. The clear price targets and profit-take details for gold, silver, and miners included in the full version of today's analysis - our Gold & Silver Trading Alert - are the actionable part that savvy traders really should take into account right now. We invite you to join us at extremely preferential terms - the first 3 weeks of your new subscription are now discounted to mere $9! Subscribe today, while this offer is still available.

  • Bullish Reversal in Gold? Here's What Makes One

    November 11, 2019, 9:23 AM

    Gold plunged last week just as we've been describing it. We wrote that the triple (in gold, silver, and miners) vertex-based reversal after a short-term rally was a very bearish development and indeed, that was the top after which the PMs plunged. Both key precious metals ended the previous week significantly lower and - most importantly - they closed below their lowest closing prices of September. This means one thing: major breakdowns. And major breakdowns mean major declines just around the corner.

    • Ok, if that's the case, then why are gold and silver moving higher today?

    No market can move up or down in a straight line without periodic corrections or breathers (particularly short corrections). It seems that we're seeing one in gold and one in silver. Of course, such corrections can turn into big rallies, but nothing that we saw so far today indicates that this would be the case right now.

    Why?

    The Perspective of Gold's Rally

    Because the key support lines remain intact. Both: gold and silver moved a bit higher today, but they didn't even touch the levels of their September lows, let alone break above them.

    On Thursday, gold declined below the lowest closing price that we saw since early August -with the most visible sign that something major happened being that it closed below the September low in terms of closing prices. The key thing happened on Friday, though.

    Actually, the most important is what didn't happen. Gold didn't invalidate the above-mentioned breakdown. It moved lower just a bit, but - after an intraday attempt to rally - it closed once again below the lowest closing price of September. Some may report gold's breakdown as verified, but based on our experience in the precious metals market, it's best to wait for three subsequent closes before saying that a breakout or breakdown is truly confirmed. So, gold's breakdown was not invalidated, and it's almost confirmed right now.

    At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading about $5 below the September low, which means that the breakdown was not invalidated. Even if gold moves temporarily above it, but still closes at or below the September low, the breakdown will not be invalidated - after all, the breakdown is based on the closing prices, so it's confirmation or invalidation will also take place in these terms.

    This means that the September low is likely to provide short-term resistance and if this resistance holds (which is likely), it will open the way for further declines - likely to one of our near-term price targets for the yellow metal.

    Silver's Turn Now

    And what about silver? It broke and closed below the lowest closing prices of September on Friday, so today is the second trading day when it's trading below it. The implications of today's close will not be as severe as they will be in case of gold's close, but the September low is still likely to provide important short-term resistance.

    Let's keep in mind that silver did more than just break below the lowest closing price of September.

    Silver also broke below the rising red support line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Technically, silver's breakdown was even more important than the one in gold. The fact that the white metal managed to close the week below the combination of three support levels is bearish, but it will become much more so only after it's verified.

    • So, isn't it best to wait for the breakdown in silver to be confirmed, before aiming to profit on the decline?

    That's one way to do it, and if anyone wants to take this route - sure, it's their capital. We think that having a position open right now is better from the risk to reward point of view because of the almost-confirmed breakdown in gold, and because of multiple signs that we have covered in our previous analyses and that we can't discuss on each day - there's simply not enough space and time to again go through all the bearish factors that remain in place right now.

    It is usually the case that three consecutive closes below a certain level are necessary for the market to verify the breakdown, but given how strongly correlated gold and silver are, the odds are that a slide in gold will trigger a powerful slide in silver as well. And gold's plunge could start any day, hour, or minute.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to examine today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. We supplement the above with two specific target areas for gold that could be reached this month (perhaps even this week) or in December. Additionally, the full version includes links to the detailed discussions of key factors that make the current outlook for gold so bearish. Of course, we provide target prices not only for gold, but also for silver, mining stocks, and related (leveraged) ETFs. Please keep in mind that during the current promotion, the first 3 weeks of your new subscription go for measly $9 (renews normally, but you can cancel anytime). Get the critical details as well as full 3 weeks of follow-ups - subscribe today!

  • Gold's Sharp Slide Means Even More Than It Appears

    November 8, 2019, 6:17 AM

    In yesterday's analysis we dealt with silver and we explained why Wednesday's reversal was most likely just a pause within a bigger decline instead of an important reversal, which it might seem like at first sight. Indeed, it wasn't. Silver plunged and so did the rest of the precious metals sector, greatly benefiting our trading position.

    In today's premium analysis, we will focus on gold and its price target. Or... should we say - targets. Based on how volatile yesterday's slide was, and how little a rally in the USD Index it took for gold to slide, it seems that there might be a short-term bounce in gold even before it reaches the target that we previously described. But, before moving to details, let's check how yesterday's gold price action caused the outlook to deteriorate even more.

    The Gold Outlook Now

    We previously commented on a specific analogy in gold. Namely, the price movement that we've seen since August is very similar to what we saw in mid-2016, early 2018 and early 2019. There were four tops after which gold declined. The very short-term implications were bearish regardless of which of those cases gold was repeating (history tends to rhyme).

    The first two similar situations were bearish in the medium term, but the third (early 2019) one was followed by only a quick decline that ended above the previous lows and then a big upswing.

    Yesterday's decline was particularly important, because gold moved and closed below the previous (mid-September) low. The same thing - breakdown below previous lows - happened in the first two similar price patterns, and it didn't occur in the third case. This means that we now have a confirmation that what we're seeing now is not like the early-2019 consolidation, but in line with the mid-2016 and early-2018 topping patterns. And what followed these breakdowns to new lows in these two most similar cases?

    Big declines.

    There was a counter-trend rally in late-2016 before gold moved to its yearly lows, but it was triggered by the U.S. Presidential elections at that time, and it seems that news-based volatility (trade wars, Brexit talks) is not likely to increase substantially here. In fact, it seems to be tapering off. So, while we could see a quick pause here, a big, sharp run-up seems unlikely.

    In other words, based on the above-mentioned similarities, gold is poised to decline in the following weeks.

    But that's not everything. Please take a look at the volume levels. Gold's volume was declining on average since August until the very recent slide, when the volume soared to levels that were not seen in years.

    That's exactly what happened in 2016. The volume was declining on average, while gold was topping (through four local tops, similarly to what we saw recently), but it soared during the breakdown below the previous lows. This makes the late-2016 decline more similar to the current situation than what we saw in 2018. Gold also declined in a more profound and sharp manner in 2016 than it did in 2018. Consequently, gold's short-term outlook is not only bearish, it's very bearish. Of course, this doesn't mean that gold has to slide right away - a couple of days of sideways trading or even a small bounce wouldn't change anything regarding the above.

    Let's take a "breather" from the gold analysis for a quick look at the USD Index.

    USD Index Rising

    The USD Index moved higher, but the rally was not that big. The USDX is more or less halfway back after the October decline. If gold's performance relative to the USD Index was neutral, gold should be more or less in the midpoint of the recent decline. Instead, gold just closed at a new low. This is a critical confirmation of gold's weakness.

    Gold is not showing strength by declining to just its previous lows (slightly below them). Gold is multiplying the bearish signs that it gets. It had little direct reason to break below the previous low yesterday. But it did anyway. Why? Because the bearish storm has been brewing for a long time. As the number of shocking news announcements is lower, the situation is probably going to develop just as it's been likely to, and just as we've been warning for many weeks.

    Going forward, gold will not need big reasons to decline. Of course, bearish news will accelerate the decline, while bullish news will trigger pauses, but gold is overall likely to be in the decline mode for longer than most investors expect.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to examine today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. We supplement the above with two specific target areas for gold that could be reached this month or in December. Additionally, we explain why silver or mining stocks didn't break below their recent lows yesterday and what it implies for the path ahead. Of course, we provide target prices not only for gold, but also for silver, mining stocks, and related (leveraged) ETFs. Please keep in mind that thanks to the current promotion, the first 3 weeks of your new subscription will be for just $9 (renews normally, but you can cancel anytime). Get the critical details as well as full 3 weeks of follow-ups - subscribe today!

  • Wait... Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal?

    November 7, 2019, 7:02 AM

    Silver plunged on Tuesday, just as it was likely to after the triple reversal that we've been writing about, and it was declining strongly during Wednesday's pre-market trading. And then it all changed. Silver soared before the U.S. markets opened and the white metal ended the session in the green. We definitely saw a silver reversal. But, was it significant and can it be trusted?

    We doubt that and the below chart shows why.

    About That Silver Reversal

    We doubt the significance of yesterday's reversal in silver, because daily corrections after the big daily declines are not something that indicate a reversal. Conversely, it's something normal.

    For instance, the intraday reversal that we saw in early February should have been - theoretically - followed by higher prices. It wasn't. It was simply a breather that silver took before continuing to decline. These daily pauses don't always take the same form. In late February, silver corrected by simply rallying a bit without an intraday reversal. And in late September, silver's pause took form of a significant slowdown in the pace at which silver was declining.

    In all above-mentioned cases silver resumed its decline shortly. So, is this time really any different? That's unlikely.

    Besides, silver had a good reason not to decline without looking back. The rising support line that's based on the previous lows in terms of closing prices (May and July lows) was just reached in intraday terms. Since the line is based on daily closing prices, and we didn't see a daily close below it yesterday, we don't view yesterday's price action as invalidation of the breakdown. The support held for now, but that's not enough to make the outlook bullish.

    Moreover, let's keep in mind what we wrote in yesterday's Gold & Silver Trading Alert about the size of silver's decline so far:

    Silver declined profoundly and it seems to be just starting its decline. Silver has recently outperformed on a very short-term basis after having formed a shooting star reversal. It doesn't seem that just a one-day decline or something only a little bigger than that is enough to really be a reasonable response to multiple strong sell signs. Similar signals in the past used to be followed by multi-dollar declines.

    The move that we've seen so far, is too small even compared to the lesser silver declines. And if we compare it to silver's bigger declines, it's almost nonexistent.

    Even if we consider yesterday's pre-market downswing to be a part of the decline, the entire move is still tiny compared to even the smaller of the previous declines. Taking this comparison into account it's even more likely that yesterday's reversal was not the end of the decline in silver but rather a pause within it.

    All in all, predicting higher silver prices here based on yesterday's small reversal is not justified - at least not yet.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to examine today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. We share the analysis of yesterday's price movement in gold and mining stocks, discuss their volume levels, relative sizes of the price moves. The extra detail that most investors will probably miss comes from the Stochastic Oscillator applied do the GDX ETF. As it turns out, the very recent top is much more important than it appears at first sight...

    Most importantly, the premium Gold & Silver Trading Alert includes the specific exit prices for gold, silver and mining stocks necessary to truly take advantage of the upcoming short-term downswing. Please note that there's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee, and because we currently have an extremely favorable promotion - the first 3 weeks of subscription are for just $9 and it renews normally only after that time. Naturally, you can cancel it anytime should you choose to do so and the same offer applies to all our other products. Get the precise profit-take levels for gold, silver, and GDX ETF and all the premium extras - subscribe today!

  • Gold's 2019 Downside Target Details

    November 6, 2019, 10:45 AM

    In yesterday's analysis, we explained that gold's decline is likely to continue, and we uncovered the reason behind the recent strength in silver and mining stocks (the general stock market). We also told you that the influence that the main stock indices have on silver and miners wanes off over time. We didn't have to wait long for the market to agree with us. Gold took a deep dive, and both: silver and mining stocks moved considerably lower yesterday, even though the move lower in the S&P 500 was tiny.

    The Diving PMs

    It happened right after the triple triangle-vertex-based reversals that we described days in advance. Just when people were thinking that gold might be moving higher, it declined and erased all its recent gains. It closed almost right at the lowest closing price of October (just $0.20 above it).

    Silver didn't close as low as it did in October, but silver's decline continues also today, and it just moved below the mid-October low in terms of the closing prices.

    It also moved below the rising support line that's based on two October lows. The breakdown was not confirmed yet, but it already (until it's confirmed, it's just a slight indication, but still) suggests that this decline is not over yet.

    How low can the precious metals sector go? Well, you know very well that we expect gold, silver, and mining stocks to move much lower in the following months. However, we don't intend to keep the speculative trading positions intact during all this time. Of course, some investors and traders may want to do so, but that's not how most people prefer to approach this move. We want our trading Alerts to be very useful regardless of whether one agrees with us on precious metals' long- and medium-term moves.

    So, yes, we continue to think (based on multiple factors) that the following months will see much lower precious metals values, but at the same time, we aim to profit on the more short-term price swings. And how are we going to do that? By aiming to detect the short-term turnarounds. And the next short-term turnaround is likely coming - and it's likely to take place before the end of this year.

    Yes, the above prediction is also based on the vertex-based reversal technique that just worked so flawlessly in detecting the recent top. But getting the right exit price for exiting the position that gains along with lower PM prices is not as straightforward as detecting the likely timing of the reversal.

    Most of us heard the saying that when the time is up, the price will reverse. It's all well and nice, until one realizes that the reversal might mean both: the bottom that one expects to see, the corrective top that takes place after the bottom that one wants to detect, or even the corrective top that takes place before the bottom that one wants to detect. Getting out much too early or much too soon means missing out on a lot of profits, which is why getting the price prediction right is a big deal. If both the price and time aspect of the forecast confirm each other, we'll likely have the meaningful reversal and a great exit price. If not, things can get costly. On a side note, this is why it's so useful to have professional daily and intraday updates reflecting the ever developing situation.

    So, what's the right price here?

    We will reveal the details in one of our free analyses eventually, but we think that the juicest fruits of this trade should be reserved to our subscribers. After all, they are the ones that allow us to analyze the market really thoroughly and feature predictions using techniques that nobody else has. We don't accept any advertising (especially from mining companies that want to be "promoted") and we are 100% supported by our subscribers. This ensures that 100% of our thanks, loyalty and care goes to our subscribers.

    We would like to invite you to become a part of this noble group. We realize that you may not be inclined to pay the full subscription price before giving it a shorter test drive, so we have an idea. In short, we'll make being our subscribers quick and easy. Namely, for the first three weeks, we will provide you with our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts for just $19 - that's a tiny fraction of the subscription value. The subscription will renew normally, but you have full three weeks to evaluate, and profit on it. Naturally, you can cancel it anytime should you choose to do so.

    We are applying similarly ridiculously low prices for this very short time for our other services as well. That's excellent time to check out our new fundamentally-oriented service: Fundamental Gold Reports, and it's just as great opportunity to try our Day Trading Signals, if day trading is (or might be) your thing. We just recorded another profitable trade in the latter, which is a great addition to the results from gold, silver, and miners' decline featured in this analysis. Forex- and Oil Trading Alerts have also been particularly profitable this year, so why not give them a go at the fraction of their value? Who knows, perhaps the profits on all these markets in these three weeks will make seem the price of even the All-Inclusive Package as very low (in comparison).

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  • It's Gold Reversal's Aftermath and GDX is Leading the Way

    November 5, 2019, 6:54 AM

    In yesterday's analysis, we wrote that there were some positive signs for gold and mining stocks, but that one should not take them at face value. We also mentioned that the potential upside for gold was relatively limited to the late-September top, and that the outlook didn't really stop being bearish. The preceding rally - we stated - actually had bearish implications because of the triple triangle-vertex-based reversal. And what did the precious metals market do? It declined right after the reversal.

    Examination of the PMs Reversal

    Gold declined only a bit yesterday, but the move continues in today's pre-market trading at the moment of writing these words.

    And it was not only gold that declined. The move in silver was negligible, but the mining stocks declined rather profoundly. To be clear, the move was not huge on a stand-alone basis, but given the relatively small decline that we saw yesterday in gold, miners did move significantly.

    The HUI Index declined, erasing the daily strength that raised bullish hopes at the end of October. It also closed well below the previous intraday high and very close to the October 25 closing price. Moreover, it closed in the proximity to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Gold didn't do the above, which means that miners' short-term outperformance is likely over. This means that what seemed as something that could indicate further gains, was most likely nothing more than a short-term price noise.

    One of the reasons behind strong performance of mining stocks could have been the recent rally in the general stock market. Let's take a look at our Correlation Matrix for details.

    The 10-trading-day column for HUI / S&P 500 Index shows significant correlation of 0.71. Why? Because in the last two weeks, two markets have been moving in tune with each other. "Correlation doesn't imply causation" is generally true, but in this case it's quite obvious that the entire market (dog) influences how a part of the market - gold stocks (tail) moves (wags).

    Please note that the analogous reading for silver is 0.76, which also explains to some extent why silver was reluctant to decline recently. Silver has many industrial uses, so in the short run it's likely to move in tune with stocks every now and then. That's the case, because increased demand for silver from companies that use it can be linked with overall good performance of these companies, which in turn is linked with how the stock indexes such as S&P 500 perform.

    One would expect this relationship to wane over time, because ultimately silver has its own supply and demand combination that determines its prices. And indeed - as we move further to the right in the above table, the Silver / S&P 500 correlations become (on average) lower and finally move into the negative territory in case of the very long-term correlation coefficients.

    Let's move back to the mining stocks. Maybe it was a coincidence that the HUI Index declined and other proxies for the miners don't confirm it?

    The truth is exactly the opposite.

    The GDX ETF declined even more on a relative basis and it closed below the October 25th closing price, thus invalidating the breakout above it. The volume was not extremely high, but it was not low either, which is exactly what one might expect to see at the beginning of a decline.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to examine today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. We dig deeper into the mining stock sector by examining junior miners, we discuss the implications of the recent rally in platinum, and - most importantly - we feature the details necessary to truly take advantage of the upcoming short-term downswing. Please note that there's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee. Subscribe today.

  • Gold Price in November 2019

    November 4, 2019, 10:02 AM

    Gold price action in November 2019 is likely to take most investors by surprise. There are two ways in which gold is likely to move in the first part of the month. It could slide right away based on the triple triangle-vertex-based reversal patterns that we see in gold, silver, and gold miners. However, there's also the possibility that gold will rally along with the Japanese yen (as it often does) and move close to its late-September high. These two scenarios are interesting, but they are neither the most appealing, nor most important thing that we'll explain today.

    In case of technical analysis, it is usually the case that one never asks the W question. There is no WHY in the technical analysis. Or more importantly, they usually don't matter. There are tens, if not hundreds, of news releases each day and markets can rally or decline on all or any of them. It's impossible to pay attention to everything that each market is doing (some analyses can help, though), and it all boils down to whether a given support or resistance was reached, whether the turning point or cycle is nearby, if we see an analogy to the past to any significant extent. In other words, there are multiple tips for trading gold that are not concerned about the WHY.

    Today's analysis is different from other ones that we wrote recently. Today, we're going to focus on the why behind the two short-term scenarios from the opening paragraph. The reason is that the implications of the reply to the W question extend way beyond the next several days. These implications made us supplement the target prices for our trading position with additional details, making it much more short-term oriented, but even that's not the most important thing. The key implication is that based on the reply, the likelihood of seeing a major turnaround in October 2020, and its combination with True Seasonal patterns for gold, we adjusted the likely gold price path for the following 12 months.

    Let's start with the tip of the analytical iceberg.

    The Short-Term in the PMs

    Gold broke above the declining green resistance line and is confirming the breakout right now. Just one more daily close above the green line (currently at about $1,500) will mean that the breakout is verified, making a short-term rally more likely. Gold stocks have already broken above their declining green resistance line and they verified this breakout by closing above the line for three consecutive trading days.

    So, did the short-term outlook just become bullish? Not really. The rallies do appear bullish, but the triple triangle-vertex-based reversal means that any rally that took place recently is actually bearish news for the following days. After all, if the price is likely to reverse (again, it's not just one market that points to a reversal, it's all three of them), then it's likely to decline only if it moved higher before. And that's exactly what happened.

    Then again, keeping in mind that the reversals can work on a near-to basis, it means that we could first see one or two days of higher prices before the precious metals market slides next.

    If gold moves higher instead of declining, then how far can it go? To the next resistance level. Since gold moved above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on a day-to-day basis, it could move to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at about $1,530. Alternatively, gold could move even higher and rally to approximately the late-September high at about $1,540.

    Of course, we're writing "gold", but what we really mean is gold futures prices as that's what the above chart is showing. Friday's intraday high was $1,519, so the above means a possibility of moving beyond it by about $10-$20.

    That's it? I was expecting to see something groundbreaking here, and the above seems relatively normal...

    Don't worry, that was just a warm-up, and something that needed to be covered anyway. What is the most important detail here is the shape of the recent gold price movement. We've already seen it before. In all likelihood, unless you've become interested in gold only recently, you've already seen it before too. It's not that obvious at first sight, because the time scale is different, but... The way gold is topping right now, it's an almost exact copy of how it topped in 2011.

    Let's take a look at the above chart one more time, but this time, we will put gold's 2011 performance before it (so that it's easier to compare it with gold that takes the upper part of the triple chart).

    The Anatomy of Gold Tops

    The similarity may not be obvious at first sight thanks to the different time span, but please focus on the following facts:

    • Both rallies in gold (2011 and late-2019) had a short-term consolidation in the middle of the rally.
    • Both rallies had an initial (early August 2011 and early August 2019) tops, which were followed by a double-top pattern in which the second high was a bit higher.
    • The initial declines (late September 2011 and early September 2019) were quickly followed by counter-trend rallies (November 2011 and late September 2019 tops) and then additional declines to new short-term lows (December 2011 and early October bottom).

    What followed about 8 years ago was yet another upswing that ended a bit above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and very close to the initial high (November 2011). The history has been repeating itself to a considerable degree, which means that gold might rally to $1,530 - $1,540 once again).

    It is not carved in stone, though. The history might rhyme instead of being repeated to the letter, which means that this time, the upswing might be smaller (or higher, if gold really wants to trick a lot of people in a late-Halloween fashion).

    If the history is indeed repeating here, it's necessary to ask: What happened next?

    Gold declined to the previous lows once again, and then launched yet another counter-trend upswing from there. The most recent decline ended at about $1,460, so it might be the case that this level will provide gold with strong support once again, and that we'll see yet another counter-trend rally.

    And what if gold declines right away from current price levels? Then it changes absolutely nothing with regard to the above. The 2011 topping pattern and what we've seen in the past several months would be similar nonetheless, with the implication that we're likely to see a counter-trend rally once gold moves to about $1,460 anyway.

    Hmm, is there any other reason, besides the price shape, that makes this year similar to 2011?

    You bet! The most important similarity between the two years is the record-breaking monthly volume that ended both rallies. We saw something similar also in January 2018 (that was the yearly high in terms of the monthly closing prices). The implications of the big volume spike are bearish, as they emphasize the importance of the reversal that took place during a given month. As far as the similarity is concerned, out of these two cases that are similar volume-wise, only the 2011 top was preceded by a rally that was similarly sharp to what we saw in the middle part of this year.

    Consequently, it's not just the shape of the price during the 2011 topping process that makes both situations similar - volume readings confirm it too.

    All in all, gold's price in November 2019 might move higher initially, only to disappoint shortly thereafter. Gold could move to its recent lows in November, or this short-term decline could end closer to mid-December. The latter seems more likely.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It covers the USD Index and Japanese yen's message for gold and silver investors. Don't miss the discussion of the detailed gold price path - the looming triple (!) reversal clearly confirms it. We can't give out all the details, but they're literally worth their weight in gold and you really want to know them. Please note that there's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products - we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Fed Cuts But Bond Yields Don't Plunge. It Means That Gold...

    October 31, 2019, 8:09 AM

    Yesterday's second most interesting news was Fed's interest rate decision. The crown goes to Fed's indication of a pause in the rate declines. It doesn't mean that much, of course, as Powell made it clear that if new risks or data start to require a rate cut, they will cut. Still, lower rates became a little less probable based on the above. What did it really change?

    The long-term bond yield chart shows that yesterday's news was no news at all, because the market has already determined that the long-term rates have bottomed earlier this year - in late August. Yesterday's announcement was just a confirmation of the less dovish tone.

    Bond Yields, Rates and Gold

    The 30-year bond yields are rising back up after a huge slide. The true implications have been visible on the above chart for quite a few weeks and in light of yesterday's announcement, they remain up-to-date.

    Despite the very long-term downtrend in the rates, there is a certain cyclicality in their medium-term moves. There are sharp declines, but also big rallies. What is interesting from our (gold & silver investors' and traders') point of view, is how gold performs after major bottoms in the rates, as it's quite clear now that the bottom is already in.

    Let's take a look at the chart for details. The red dashed lines mark the major bottoms in yields and they often corresponded to major turnarounds in gold. Out of 8 cases when the yields bottomed, gold topped 4 times, bottomed 2 times, and in 2 cases the implications were unclear. Overall, in most cases (6 out of 8) gold reversed direction when yields bottomed. The moves that followed were huge in all 6 cases.

    When yields were dropping in the first half of the year, gold was rallying in a decisive manner. This means that the above-mentioned 6 out of 8 statistic has very bearish implications. Reversing course after a rally means declines. Indeed, just as bond yields bottomed in late August, gold topped and it's been declining since that time. The decline is not profound so far, but let's keep the second part of the above-mentioned statistic in mind. Namely, that the gold price moves that followed yield bottoms were all huge. This means that the current decline in gold is likely to become much bigger before it's over.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It covers the USD Index's message for gold and silver investors as well as a two important clues from the gold stocks. The way gold miners just moved relative to it's previous price swing tell a lot, and the looming triple (!) reversal clearly confirms it. We can't give out all the details, but we can say that you really want to know them before the next week. Please note that there's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products - we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Gold Juniors Decline While Senior Miners Rally - What Gives?

    October 30, 2019, 8:22 AM

    Do you know what mining companies did yesterday? They verified a major breakdown, confirming the extremely bearish outlook for the following months. What? The miners rallied? Oh, you mean the senior mining stocks (HUI, GDX...) - then yes, they moved a bit higher. But the junior miners (Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index) just declined after confirming breakdown below the very important rising support line, which has profound implications for the next months. Truth be told, what's happening in the senior miners can be used to indicate the next short-term moves as well, but we'll start today's analysis with the big picture.

    The Mining Index That Is Breaking Down

    On October 25, we wrote the following about juniors' outlook:

    What's going on in this proxy for junior miners?

    It's declining - that's what's happening. In particular, it declined below the rising medium-term support line that's based on two profound and clear bottoms: the 2016 and 2018 lows. And it's not something that happened just yesterday. It happened about 3 weeks ago and unless the TSX Venture Index rallies today, this week's close will mark the third consecutive weekly close below this line. That's important, because this means that the breakdown - even though it's tiny - was just confirmed. And confirmed breakdowns are likely to be followed by further declines.

    Now, the more significant the support that was broken, the bigger decline one can expect, and the line that was just broken is definitely significant.

    This means that the confirmed breakdown in the TSX Venture sends a huge warning to the gold, silver, and mining stock bulls. It's not an immediate-term or even a short-term sign (we have plenty of them coming from other places), but it is a powerful sign pointing to sector-wide decline in the following months. We have been warned by yet another market. Those who refuse to listen will have to face the costly consequences.

    The decline's continuation means that everything that we wrote above is more than up-to-date. It was just confirmed by juniors' price action. If the breakdown was not a big deal, the junior miners could have rallied, just like the senior miners did. But that's not what happened. The previously broken support has now turned into resistance, and it makes the possible short-term upside very limited. The downside, however, is huge.

    The nearest strong support is the 2018 low, but we doubt that it will hold, given that the recent breakdown took place so close to it. The price had already taken a breather and it's ready to slide further. This means that the next likely target is the early-2016 bottom. That's far from the current price, so the move is likely to significant. And, since the medium-term moves are more or less aligned between the major parts of the precious metals sector and the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Index, it seems that gold, silver, and senior mining stocks have much further to drop in the following months too.

    Speaking of senior mining stocks, let's see how they performed compared to the price of gold and compared to other stocks.

    Examination of Senior Miners

    The HUI to gold ratio is a good way to measure gold stocks' relative performance to gold. And this ratio is once again in the decline mode after a rather sharp counter-trend move. Why was the recent upswing a counter-trend move and not the start of a beginning of a new trend? Because the attempt to break above the declining resistance line failed miserably. The current small move lower in the ratio is the very early part of the price move right after the breakout was invalidated.

    Invalidations are strong bearish signs in general. The line that was broken was based on two major (2011 and 2016) tops, therefore it's important - and so is the invalidation of the breakdown above it. Focusing on what one saw in the previous several days is tempting, especially for beginning gold traders, but keeping the context in mind is absolutely critical if one wants to make serious gains in this - or, in fact, any other - market.

    Moreover, let's remember that the 2019 top in the ratio made the RSI indicator move above 70 and there were only two similar cases in the past 15 years. That was the late-2012 top and the 2016 top. Both were followed by substantial declines in the ratio, in gold stocks, and in gold itself. The implications here are clearly bearish for the following months and weeks. The above chart doesn't signal anything for gold in the next several days, though. Given how rich this week is in terms of news, things could get quite volatile, especially given the looming reversal turning point, but we'll get to that in the following text.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. There, we carry on with the gold stocks examination and share the short-term PMs picture. Finally, we've also included a helpful summary of the gold move's determinants at play. Taken together, these paint a coherent picture of what's likely to come in the following months. The full Alert includes detailed price targets for gold, silver, and the GDX ETF as well as related leveraged ETNs. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Gold Price Dazzled by Palladium's Shine

    October 29, 2019, 7:22 AM

    After over 15 years of being the underdog, palladium is not only outshining gold - it's doing so in an extreme manner. It's no wonder that palladium moved more on a short-term basis than gold did, as the palladium market is relatively small. What is remarkable, however, is that in nominal terms palladium's price exceeded gold's, and - which is even more striking - it managed to hold on to these gains. After consolidating a bit, the gold to palladium ratio is diving decisively below 1. Many may think that given its outperformance, the palladium market is moving into uncharted waters, but that's far from the truth. We've seen the same kind of strength before. What is even more interesting, that the previous breakdown below 1 in the gold to palladium ratio was also followed by a consolidation and then...

    Palladium in the Spotlight

    (click on the chart to expand it)

    And then the decline in the ratio continued until it moved well below 0.5. In other words, palladium continued to be more and more expensive than gold until it became more than twice as expensive as gold.

    That's quite interesting, but what is even more striking is what happened in gold at that time. During the final part of palladium's outperformance, gold declined and then finally reached its true bottom after declining for many years.

    The decline accelerated in 1999, which is when the breakdown below the 1 level in the ratio was verified and the consolidation was over. The consolidation appears to be over right now, which does not bode well for the following months.

    Looking at the upper part of the chart, we see that the RSI is approaching the 30 level. It's not yet at or below it, which would indicate an oversold territory for the ratio, but it's getting there quite fast.

    The RSI indicator usually works in a rather straightforward way: RSI over 70 suggests a looming top, and RSI below 30 suggests a looming bottom. However, before applying any indicator to any market, it's best to check how it worked (one might discover that, for instance, golden cross in gold is not bullish at all). In case of the gold to palladium ratio, the RSI indicator works in a rather specific manner.

    The overbought (above 70) levels of the gold to palladium ratio are not consistent with each other (the ratio does not reverse after reaching the same level), which makes it a poor signal for detecting tops. On a side note, the precious metals' CoT reports have the same flaw.

    The oversold levels of the gold to palladium ratio have shown more consistency and serve as a bearish signal for gold. It's not clear enough to rely solely on it while making investment decisions, but it appears very useful as a confirmation tool. In the past decade, the RSI based on the ratio below or very near 30 has been a very reliable indication that a big decline in gold may be just around the corner. The 2009, late-2010, early-2013, late-2016, early 2018 tops were all accompanied by this signal. The mid-2014 was an exception from the rule. The current implications are bearish.

    Having said that, let's take a look at palladium's sister metal - platinum.

    Turning to Platinum Now

    After seeing the first reversal candlestick last week, we commented on the above platinum chart in the following way:

    Based on what happened yesterday, it's not just a daily show of strength that makes the outlook bearish. It's also a daily reversal that's similar to the reversal that we saw previously. Shooting star reversal candlesticks are bearish on their own and we saw one yesterday. But, they are even more bearish if they have recently proved to be useful for a given market and that's exactly what happened in case of platinum on September 23rd. It was very close to the top in platinum as well as tops in gold, silver, and mining stocks. While the implications are bearish, it's not necessarily immediately so. There was one additional day of strength (September 24th) before platinum declined, so it might be the case that the decline gets postponed to the next week instead of starting right away.

    That's exactly what happened - we saw one additional day of strength, after which platinum reversed and declined. And the key parts of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks declined along with it.

    On a side note, have you noticed that the platinum jewelry is much more expensive than palladium jewelry? One reason is that platinum is almost twice as dense as palladium, which means that more of it has to be used to make the same piece of jewelry (e.g. a wedding ring). The other reason is that the marketing side of business is quite slow to reflect the pricing changes in the underlying market dynamics. Another example would be credit cards. Is platinum or gold card better and packed with more features? Exactly - and platinum has been cheaper than gold for almost 5 years now...

    All in all, both above-mentioned precious (and industrial) metals, and both perspectives that one can take to examine the palladium market point to lower gold prices in the following months. If you're thinking about when and how to buy gold, it might best to wait with the purchases for lower prices. There will most likely be much better buying opportunities in the following months than the one that we have right now.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. There, we discuss also the very short-term PMs situation. Finally, we've also included a helpful summary of the gold move's determinants at play. Taken together, these paint a coherent picture of what's likely to come in the following months. The full Alert includes detailed price targets for gold, silver, and the GDX ETF as well as related leveraged ETNs. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Enter the Silver Time Machine

    October 28, 2019, 10:57 AM

    Friday's session was exceptional for several reasons and the most profound ones are gold's and silver's sizable intraday rally, and the subsequent slide. The reversals that both metals created are practically screaming signs pointing to what's next. The way mining stocks behaved, and how gold closed relative to its previous tops also have important implications, but let's start today's analysis with the former.

    Silver, the less valuable (at least so far) of the most popular precious metals and many small investors' metal of choice, reversed in a particularly meaningful way.

    Friday's PMs Reversals

    All three parts of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks (HUI is a proxy for gold stocks) moved to or above their respective 50% Fibonacci retracements based on the September - October declines, but only silver closed visibly below the 38.2% retracement. That's one of the reasons why silver's reversal was so important. Silver simply moved up and down the most. That's far from it all, though. The big deal about this reversal is how similar it is to what silver has done in the previous years after similar reversals.

    You see, silver is known to rally very high and outperform gold and mining stocks right before or while forming a top (often creating a fake breakout a.k.a. fakeout), but it doesn't necessarily happen on one day. Silver might rally for a day or a few days, when gold and miners are not doing much, or simply visibly less than silver. At times, the above and the subsequent slide take place during the same trading day, but it is not very common. This means that such sessions are relatively easy to find among other days simply because they stand out.

    We won't be able to provide you with a complete list of silver's profound daily reversals, but we will feature some of them that should make you think at least twice before viewing the initial "strength" in the white metal as being anything close to bullish.

    Let's start the silver time machine and set it back to about three years ago. Whoosh!

    The Power of Silver's Reversals

    We're now in the second half of 2016. Precisely, at the beginning of July. Silver just soared several dollars, but it reversed some of its daily gains. All silver analysts are cheering as silver ended the session higher than the previous one, and the white metal gained a bit more on the following day. That was true, but the perceived - bullish - implications were entirely off. Silver had just reversed and that intraday high turned out to be the yearly high.

    Before declining in the most profound way (in October), silver flashed the daily reversal once again, at the end of September. One could say that the mid-August session was also a daily reversal, which also had bearish implications for the following days and weeks.

    Based on what happened in 2016, it seems that silver's daily reversals should at least raise an eyebrow.

    Let's get back to the time machine. This time, we're setting it to 2013. Whoosh!

    It's mid-June 2013, and silver is after a steady decline. It just moved almost a full dollar higher during just one day, but it gave away most of these gains before the session was over. The following session opened a bit higher, but silver closed the day lower. And it declined on the next day. And the next one too. And then silver plunged almost $2 in just one day, only to decline some more in the following days. And it all started with the daily reversal.

    The take-away is that silver's daily reversals might be worth more than just a raised eyebrow.

    The time machine still has some fuel left. Let's get back one additional year. Whoosh!

    It's the first day of October 2012 and silver just rallied to new highs, after rising about $12 in less than 2 months. Silver didn't manage to hold these intraday gains, and closed the day only a bit higher. The outlook seemed quite optimistic. But in reality, it was very, very, very far from that. The daily reversal marked the end of the volatile counter-trend rally, and started the decline that continued for years (in fact, the odds are that this medium-term downswing continues up to this day). In other words, since the first day of October 2012, we haven't seen silver prices at higher levels.

    All in all, silver's daily reversals should do much more than just raise both of one's eyebrows, especially when they take place in October. They should make investors prepare for much lower silver prices - if not immediately, then relatively shortly. And we have just seen a profound daily silver reversal on Friday.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Gold & Silver Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. There, we dive into the silver time machine lessons. Then, we discuss the outlook for gold and miners in more detail, and also gold performance from European currencies' point of view. Finally, we've also included a helpful summary of the gold move's determinants at play. Taken together, these paint a coherent picture of what's likely to come in the following months. The full Alert includes detailed price targets for gold, silver, and the GDX ETF as well as related leveraged ETNs. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Gold & Silver Trading Alert #2

    October 25, 2019, 10:57 AM
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Gold Market Overview

The crisis of central banking is deepening just as signs of recession are appearing. How would they affect the gold market? These are the key themes covered in this edition of the Market Overview. First, we deal with the U.S. repo crisis, as something clearly stinks there. Second, we analyze the ECB's introduction of tiering system and the implication for its monetary policy and the gold market. Third, we examine the manufacturing recession and its impact on the whole American economy and gold prices. Last but not least, we - inspired by the Mervyn King, the former Governor of the Bank of England - study the role of narratives in the gold market.

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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