August 22, 2017, 8:06 AM
Friday’s powerful reversal was followed by a rally, instead of a decline. How much does it change regarding the implications of the former, especially that the USD Index just broke below its flag pattern?
August 21, 2017, 9:59 AM
While the precious metals traders may have complained about the lack of action in the previous week, what we just saw suggests that this week will be anything but boring as, based on the volume reading, it seems that Friday’s session was the most important session of this year.
August 18, 2017, 8:43 AM
Gold and silver didn’t do much yesterday, but both remain close to their previous highs, even though the USD Index is close to its previous lows. What are the implications of this relative outperformance?
August 17, 2017, 9:00 AM
In yesterday’s alert we wrote about how boring the situation in the precious metals market had become from the medium-term perspective and that it was not something that suggested further lack of action, but the opposite. The implications that we made yesterday remain up-to-date, even though gold, silver, mining stocks and the USD Index seem to have all returned to the levels they all saw just a few days before, thus further confirming the “not much changed recently” statement. However, how much did really change?
August 16, 2017, 9:18 AM
The last couple of years and – in particular – the last couple of months were very difficult for gold traders – i.e. they were boring. Despite several huge daily price swings, the precious metals market has not been going anywhere, moving in and around the $1,100 - $1,300 price range. Gold got to the point where this lack of volatility is by itself an extreme sign pointing to a much bigger price swing in the market, as the periods of very high and very low volatility tend to follow each other. Gold seems to have once again topped after moving to a long-term resistance line and the previous highs. Will the upcoming decline be any different than the previous local downswings that were simply followed by yet another rally up to $1,300?
August 15, 2017, 7:56 AM
In the previous alerts, we discussed the issue of gold moving higher despite the lack of real downswing in the USD Index. We argued that it’s likely based on the geopolitical developments i.e. rising nuclear tensions regarding North Korea and as such, it’s likely to be just a temporary course of action. It seems that we were correct as yesterday’s and today’s pre-market action show that gold is once again responding to USD’s lead. In particular, gold is responding to small rallies in the value of the USD Index with visible declines. What are the implications?
August 14, 2017, 6:41 AM
Gold and – especially – silver moved visibly higher last week and so did mining stocks. However, something much more important than the short-term movement is taking place, from the long-term point of view. You'll find details in today's alert.
August 11, 2017, 8:58 AM
Once again, gold and – especially – silver moved visibly higher yesterday and so did mining stocks. However, something much more important than the short-term movement is taking place, from the long-term point of view.
August 10, 2017, 9:00 AM
Gold and – especially – silver moved visibly higher yesterday and so did mining stocks. Is there anything not to like about this move?
August 9, 2017, 8:35 AM
Yesterday’s session was quite volatile on an intra-day basis, but in the end, nothing really changed. The only thing that’s worth commenting on regarding yesterday’s session is silver’s small outperformance. Gold and miners didn’t close higher, but silver did – not significantly, but still. This outperformance seems to be present also today as silver moved higher in today’s pre-market trading. Gold moved higher as well, but silver’s $0.35 upswing is more visible. What are the implications?
August 8, 2017, 7:43 AM
Yesterday’s session was far from volatile, but the one thing that made it worth describing, was the performance of mining stocks. The latter moved lower even though gold, silver and the USD Index moved back and forth. What are the implications?
August 7, 2017, 7:58 AM
In our Thursday’s alert, we discussed the downside potential of the silver market and we argued that the bearish analogy to the previous cases in silver is very likely intact, but it hasn’t played out yet due to the declining USD. Interestingly, it doesn’t seem that a rally in the latter is necessary for the decline to really start – it seems that all that is required is that the USD stops declining. On Friday, the USD Index moved sharply higher and silver responded with a big decline, just as we had expected. What’s next?
August 3, 2017, 7:16 AM
Some time ago we discussed the analogies in the silver market and the implication of the analogies was that a big decline should follow. However, we have not seen anything epic on a medium-term basis – only a local (yet powerful) intra-day slide. Was the analogy invalidated and did the outlook become bullish?
August 2, 2017, 7:39 AM
The precious metals market didn't do much yesterday, but it doesn't mean that the situation is now any less tense than it was previously - the gold market is still on the verge of a major move and the same goes for mining stocks and - in particular - silver.
August 1, 2017, 8:24 AM
The USD Index started the week with yet another decline, however, this time, precious metals refused to really react to this bullish signal. Gold and miners were unaffected, but silver moved somewhat higher – what can we infer from these moves?
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