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Premium daily stock trading service. Paul Rejczak provides comments at least 1 time per trading day (before the opening bell and after each major development or market move). The analysis revolves around the S&P 500, Nasdaq100, bond yields, currencies (with the emphasis on EURUSD) and other relevant indices - depending on what''s most important on a given day. If you want to profit by trading stocks and want to be kept as up-to-date as possible on the latest developments on the market, this service is perfect for you. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-stock-trading-related-questions.

  • Stock Trading Alert #2

    April 3, 2020, 12:38 PM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails?

    April 3, 2020, 7:53 AM

    After Wednesday's slide, the S&P 500 moved higher yesterday. While the move itself hadn't surprised us as we've earlier called for a pause in the downswing, the question is whether we can expect some more upside shortly.

    Long story short, that's unlikely. Let's open today's analysis with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

    Considering Wednesday's bearish gap, stocks have retraced a measly part of the preceding decline. Let's recall our Wednesday's observations:

    (...) Stocks closed near the daily lows on Tuesday, and did so on higher volume than was the case on Monday. Another point speaking for the bears is that yesterday's upswing attempt was again soundly rejected. And still, the daily indicators are increasingly and tellingly curling lower.

    After Thursday's session, the daily indicators are overall positioned more bearishly than the day before, lending credibility to the claim of yesterday's session being merely a pause in the downswing. The bearish gap continues to support the sellers, and we certainly expect the downside move to continue over the coming days.

    But doesn't yesterday's action in the high-yield corporate debt (HYG ETF) constitute a fly in the ointment? After all, the intraday move made us issue this intraday Alert yesterday after the regular Stock Trading Alert was published:

    (...) Stocks not merely paused, but also slightly recovered during today's session so far to trade slightly below 2500 currently. Yet it's the corporate debt market that is the reason behind this intraday Alert. It recovered and the bulls attempted to close yesterday's sizable gap. Despite their failure and HYG trading close to its yesterday's closing prices, stocks are trading higher than they were yesterday - in line with the discussed need to pause in their downswing.

    However, should HYG continue its recovery attempts, that wouldn't be without consequences for the S&P 500. While we continue to think that the stock downswing will carry on in the coming days, it makes sense to tighten the trade position's parameters and improve its risk-reward ratio - please see the trading position for full details.

    The exact position details are reserved for our subscribers. Let's quote from our yesterday's regular Alert first as it explains why the debt market is key to stocks:

    (...) Comparing the magnitude of yesterday's downswing shows that stocks are a bit ahead in the sliding game. Unless HYG declines more meaningfully today, stocks are likely to take a short-term pause as they have declined more profoundly yesterday. The emphasis here goes to short-term (which implies that any potential upswing certainly isn't going to be a tradable opportunity) - unless we see a turnaround in the debt market, any potential stock upswing doesn't really have legs.

    Now, we'll take a joint look at the HYG action that made us cautious:

    The upswing ran farther than expected, and while the odds remain stacked against its possible repetition, it pays to be reasonably suspicious and conservative in one's trading decisions. After all, we're in it for the long run and in order to help people fulfill their many dreams.

    Summing up, the bears enjoy the upper hand as can be seen on both the weekly and daily charts. The renewed downswing is underway, and lower S&P 500 (and SPY ETF) values are ahead. The daily indicators, high-yield corporate debt market and fundamental prospects of more coronavirus pain and its reflection in market prices mean that our open and increasingly profitable short position remains justified.

    If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Monica Kingsley
    Stock Trading Strategist

    Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

  • Stock Trading Alert #2

    April 2, 2020, 1:33 PM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • The Opening Salvo in the Renewed Stock Downswing

    April 2, 2020, 8:48 AM

    As expected, the S&P 500 had a down session yesterday. Opening with a sizable gap, the bears continued their push to move prices lower. Since the futures have been pointing higher before the unemployment claims came in, does it mark a tradable turnaround?

    In short, that's unlikely. Let's start though with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

    The days of inside candles are over as stocks indeed rolled over to the downside. These were our yesterday's observations:

    (...) Stocks closed near the daily lows on Tuesday, and did so on higher volume than was the case on Monday. Another point speaking for the bears is that yesterday's upswing attempt was again soundly rejected. And still, the daily indicators are increasingly and tellingly curling lower.

    The above holds true also today, and perhaps even more so as the daily indicators' examination reveals. Yesterday's bearish gap continues to support the bears, and we certainly expect the downside move to continue over the coming days.

    Let's check again the high-yield corporate debt chart (HYG ETF). It should confirm the move lower in stocks, shouldn't it?

    It does confirm it. That's what we noted about HYG yesterday:

    (...) The relentless yet decelerating climb higher has stopped, and there's a good chance that we'll see its way lower prices ahead, which would confirm the developing downswing in stocks.

    But does that mean stocks would move in a straight line lower now? Let's check the perspectives of both the stock and bond market, in order to check their relative dynamics.

    The above charts overlays the corporate debt ETF's candles with the stock index line. Comparing the magnitude of yesterday's downswing shows that stocks are a bit ahead in the sliding game. Unless HYG declines more meaningfully today, stocks are likely to take a short-term pause as they have declined more profoundly yesterday. The emphasis here goes to short-term (which implies that any potential upswing certainly isn't going to be a tradable opportunity) - unless we see a turnaround in the debt market, any potential stock upswing doesn't really have legs.

    Summing up, the bears enjoy the upper hand as can be seen on both the weekly and daily charts. The renewed downswing is underway, and lower S&P 500 (and SPY ETF) values are ahead. The daily indicators, high-yield corporate debt market and fundamental prospects of more coronavirus pain and its reflection in market prices mean that our open and increasingly profitable short position remains justified.

    If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Monica Kingsley
    Stock Trading Strategist

    Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

  • Again, Stocks Are Rolling Over to the Downside

    April 1, 2020, 9:10 AM

    The quarter-end window dressing is over, and with it goes also the treading of water in stocks. Not that the signs of deterioration wouldn't have been apparent already yesterday, as our loyal readers know. And in today's premarket trading, the S&P 500 is sliding lower in tune with our analysis and much to our subscribers' delight.

    Let's start with checking the daily chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

    While yesterday' candle was again an inside one, it contains even more clues about the upcoming S&P 500 move than Monday's one. These were our Monday's observations regarding its meaning:

    (...) it is indeed rich in indications. Its shape is bearish thanks to the large upper knot and prices closing near the daily lows. As the daily volume was lower than that on preceding up days, thus marking the bears' unwillingness to participate heavily in a reversal so far, we might still get another attempt to move higher.

    But that's unlikely to overcome Thursday's highs in any lasting way, in our opinion. The pace of RSI and CCI rise is already weakening after they both reached their mid-range readings. While Stochastics is still on a daily buy signal, that can change pretty fast - even with a couple of days' sideways action only.

    But still, we expect the return of the bears in the coming sessions as the most likely scenario.

    Stocks closed near the daily lows on Tuesday, and did so on higher volume than was the case on Monday. Another point speaking for the bears is that yesterday's upswing attempt was again soundly rejected. And still, the daily indicators are increasingly and tellingly curling lower.

    Food for thought, these were our yesterday's words. And where are the futures trading at this moment? While the ADP employment data weren't horrendous, stocks keep trading at around 2480 - yes, that's full 100-points lower than they closed the day before.

    We're riding this profitable downside move, and certainly expect our profits to get bigger in the coming hours and days.

    Let's check also the high-yield corporate debt chart (HYG ETF). Does it confirm the move lower in stocks, and portend more stress to come?

    It does. Yesterday certainly marked a day of weakness in high-yield corporate debt. The relentless yet decelerating climb higher has stopped, and there's a good chance that we'll see its way lower prices ahead, which would confirm the developing downswing in stocks.

    That's our yesterday's conclusion:

    (...) The market appears to be in the opening moments of doubting whether these solutions will indeed stick.

    And indeed, the recent Trump speech warning of more hardship in the weeks ahead, and the speculation about a new stimulus (doesn't that imply that the current one didn't dazzle the market?) are the likely fundamental catalysts behind.

    Summing up, despite the weekly chart's price action, the bears still have the upper hand, which will show up more prominently once today's session is over. The temporary upswing appears history now, and the bears are on the move. Both the daily indicators, high-yield corporate debt market and fundamental prospects of more coronavirus pain ahead support the move lower. Our open and profitable short position remains justified, and we fully expect the gains to grow considerably. Stay tuned, be healthy and safe!

    If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Monica Kingsley
    Stock Trading Strategist

    Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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