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Premium daily stock trading service. In our Stock Trading Alerts, we provide extensive analyses and comments at least 1 time per trading day, usually before the opening bell. The analyses focus on all the key factors essential to determining the medium- and short-term outlook for the S&P 500 futures, spanning over several time frames, credit markets and S&P 500 sectors and ratios. They also capture the key fundamental developments, events and trends in assessing the prospects and health of the S&P 500 moves. This way, you’re kept up-to-date on important developments that far too many investors are apt to miss or underestimate.

Whether you're looking for objective analyses to broaden your horizon / add confidence to trading decisions, or want to get inspired by our trade calls for S&P 500 futures, Stock Trading Alerts are the way to go.

  • Stocks are Heating Up

    April 9, 2021, 9:09 AM

    In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.

    But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.

    The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.

    Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.

    But, as I mentioned before, April historically is a strong month for stocks. According to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, "Other than my Cincinnati Bengals breaking my heart, few things are more consistent than stocks higher in April."

    During April, the S&P 500 has gained in 14 of the past 15 years. April has also been the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years.

    The market concerns, though, are still intact. We still have to worry about inflation, bond yields, and stocks peaking. According to Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, we could see a significant pullback between 6% and 10% over the next three months.

    Another thing I'm a bit concerned about is the $2 trillion infrastructure plan. While this is great for America's crumbling infrastructure, do we really need to spend any more trillions?

    Plus, how do you think this will be paid for? Hiking taxes- namely corporate taxes. Those gains that high growth stocks saw after Trump cut corporate taxes in 2017 could very well go away. While President Biden has indicated a willingness to negotiate his 28% corporate tax proposal, it's still a tax hike.

    My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.

    With that said, to sum it up:

    We're hot right now.

    However, we could see more volatility and more muted gains than what we've come to know over the last year.

    April is historically strong, but please continue to monitor inflation, yields, and potential tax hikes. Be optimistic but realistic. A decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely. Yet, we could eventually see a minor pullback by the summer, as Deutsche Bank said.

    Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.

    Russell 2000- Still Buyable?

    Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

    I proudly switched my call on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) to a BUY on March 24. I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February and swore I wouldn’t make that mistake again.

    We’re up to over 5% since then.

    The climate right now supports the Russell 2000. The current economic policy is tailor-made for small-caps. The best part, though? The Russell is still very buyable.

    The RSI is still hovering around 50. I also checked out the chart and noticed that almost every time the IWM touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.

    Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.

    Fast forward to now. The Russell 2000, despite its gains since tanking on March 23, remains right at about its 50-day moving average.

    Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.

    According to the chart, we may have found double-bottom support too.

    Based on the chart and macro-level tailwinds, I feel that you can still BUY this index. In fact, it may be the most buyable of them all.

    For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.

    Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. If you would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, I encourage you to sign up for my Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action described - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Matthew Levy, CFA
    Stock Trading Strategist

  • STOCK TRADING ALERT – AUTHOR’S UPDATE

    April 5, 2021, 2:35 PM

    Dear Readers,

    Please be advised that for the month of April, a larger Stock Trading Alerts will be provided on Fridays, but we will keep you updated in the meantime should anything major happen during the week. 

    Thank you and look forward to Friday's report!

    Matthew Levy, CFA

    Stock Trading Strategist

    Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. If you would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, I encourage you to sign up for my Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action described - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Matthew Levy, CFA
    Stock Trading Strategist

  • Tax Hikes are Coming

    March 31, 2021, 9:19 AM

    End of the month and first quarter of 2021. Is time going fast or slow? Markets have been moving at a dizzying pace to start the year.

    As a side note, this will be our last newsletter for this week because the market is closed on Friday (Apr. 2).

    The first quarter of 2021 is officially almost finished. Time flies when you’re having fun, right? While a broad correction did not happen by now, as I expected, the Nasdaq did enter correction territory twice since February. Despite the Nasdaq’s muted moves on Tuesday (Mar. 30), it’s right on the edge of its third foray into correction territory.

    The market themes remain. There is still as much uncertainty for tech stocks today as there were at the start of March. Until there’s some clarity on inflation and bond yields, I can’t foresee this ending anytime soon.

    Consider this too. President Biden is about to unveil a $2 trillion infrastructure plan during Wednesday’s session (wasn’t it supposed to be $3 trillion?). While this is great for America’s crumbling infrastructure, let’s be honest- does this economy, while recovering, need anymore spending?

    Plus, how do you think he will pay for this? Hiking taxes- namely corporate taxes. Those gains that high growth stocks saw after Trump cut corporate taxes in 2017 could very well go away. The market may have priced in a lot of optimism. It may have already priced in some pessimism from potential inflation. But one thing it has not priced in is a possible tax hike.

    This concerns me.

    Rising bond yields + Rising taxes= A double whammy of bad news for tech stocks.

    However, despite the “what ifs,” for now, three pillars remain in motion as a strong backdrop for stocks:

    1. Vaccines
    2. Dovish monetary policy full of stimulus
    3. Financial aid

    My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.

    With that said, to sum it up:

    The market has to figure itself out.

    More volatility is likely, and we could experience more muted gains than what we’ve come to know over the last year. Inflation, interest-rate worries, and the potential for tax hikes should be the primary tailwinds. However, a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely for now.

    Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.

    Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?

    Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

    The climate right now supports the Russell 2000. The current economic policy is tailor-made for small-caps. The best part, though? The Russell is still very buyable.

    I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after it saw a minor downturn during the second half of February. I wasn’t going to make that mistake again.

    After the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) went on its latest rally to start March, I checked out the chart. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.

    Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.

    Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25, dropped below its 50-day, and I switched the call to a BUY.

    Now, as we start the final week in March, we may be looking at the 6th reversal after dipping below its 50-day. The IWM has been up about 3% since March 24.

    Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.

    Consider this too. The Russell is on track for its first losing month in almost five months. According to the chart, it may have also found double-bottom support.

    Based on macro-level tailwinds, its first losing month in five, potentially finding double-bottom support, its RSI, and where it is in relation to the 50-day moving average, I feel that this is a solid time to BUY.

    For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.

    Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. If you would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, I encourage you to sign up for my Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action described - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Matthew Levy, CFA
    Stock Trading Strategist

  • The Three Pillars for Stocks

    March 29, 2021, 10:02 AM

    We’re officially almost through with the first quarter of 2021. While a broad correction did not happen by now, as I thought, the Nasdaq dipped into correction territory twice.

    There might also be as much uncertainty for tech stocks today as there was at March’s start.

    However, let’s look at the big picture almost a week after we hit the 1-year anniversary of the market’s bottom. Three pillars remain in motion as a strong backdrop for stocks:

    1. Vaccines
    2. Dovish monetary policy full of stimulus
    3. Financial aid

    While the major indices are still positive for 2021, every month this year has been marked by hot starts, marred by mid-month uncertainty and downturns. We’re dealing with rising bond yields, inflation scares, volatile Reddit trades, and an improving yet slowing labor market recovery.

    Plus, although earnings came in strong this past quarter, stock valuations are still at an overly inflated point not seen in years. In fact, Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, says there’s a bubble that’s ‘halfway’ to the magnitude of 1929 or 2000.

    We could see some more volatility on tap this week as the market continues to figure itself out.

    1. Suez Canal- There’s been a gigantic tanker blocking arguably one of the most crucial waterways for global trade for the last 6 days. There are indications that the tanker may be on the way to being freed. But the sooner this happens, the better. The Suez Cana controls about 10% of global trade, so you can only imagine the hundreds of billions of dollars bleeding per day the more this drags on.
    2. Economic Data- Consumer Confidence, the March job’s report, the unemployment rate, and the PMI Manufacturing index will be released this week.
    3. Earnings- Chewy (CHWY) will report Tuesday (Mar. 30) after market close, and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Dave & Busters (PLAY), Micron (MU) will all report after market close Wednesday (Mar. 31).

    My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one to help people who needed help instead of the ultra-high net worth.

    With that said, to sum it up:

    Over a year after we bottomed, there is optimism but signs of concern.

    The market has to figure itself out. More volatility is likely, and we could experience more muted gains than what we’ve known over the last year. Inflation and interest-rate worries should be the primary tailwind. However, a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market, appears unlikely to happen any time soon.

    Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.

    Russell 2000- Time to Pounce?

    Figure 1- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

    I kicked myself for not calling BUY on the Russell after seeing a minor downturn during the second half of February. I wasn’t going to make that mistake again.

    After the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) went on its latest rally to start March, I checked out the chart. I noticed that almost every time it touched or minorly declined below its 50-day moving average, it reversed.

    Excluding the recovery in April from last year’s crash, 5 out of the previous 6 times the Russell did this with its 50-day, it saw a sharp reversal. The only time it didn’t was in October 2020, when the distance between its 50-day and its 200-day moving average was a lot more narrow.

    Fast forward to Tuesday (Mar. 23). The Russell 2000 saw its worst day since February 25, dropped below its 50-day, and I switched the call to a BUY.

    Now, as we start the final week in March, we may be looking at the 6th reversal after dipping below its 50-day. The IWM has been up about 4.25% since March 24.

    Aggressive stimulus, friendly policies, and a reopening world bode well for small-caps in 2021. I think this is something you have to consider for the Russell 2000 and maybe overpay for.

    Based on the RSI and where we are in relation to the 50-day moving average, I still feel that this is a BUY.

    For more of my thoughts on the market, such as tech, inflation fears, and why I love emerging market opportunities, sign up for my premium analysis today.

    Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. If you would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, I encourage you to sign up for my Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action described - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Matthew Levy, CFA
    Stock Trading Strategist

  • The REIT Special - An Inflation Hedge

    March 26, 2021, 9:24 AM

    In the premium editions of my newsletters, you know that I have been consistently touting the iShares Cohen & Steers REIT ETF (ICF) as a potential hedge against inflation.

    In this REIT Special Edition, I will break down the WHY. But not, we aren’t going to just talk about the ICF ETF. We will dig into what specific real estate sectors you might want to consider when looking at REITs to invest in.

    But first and foremost, what is a REIT, and why are they such strong bets right now?

    Let’s just say, if you want to invest in real estate but do not necessarily have the capital, you will want to read on. If you don’t have the patience for illiquid assets like buildings, you will want to read on. And suppose you want the easiest, most convenient way to diversify your portfolio and add real estate exposure. You will want to read on.

    A REIT, or real estate investment trust, is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-producing real estate assets. Think of REITs as mutual funds for real estate. REITs pool the capital of numerous investors.

    For the most part, REITs trade on public exchanges like stocks, which makes them highly liquid, unlike physical real estate assets. But the thing I love most about REITs? They also almost mirror the consistent income streams you can get from real estate assets. REITs pay some of the best and most consistent dividends on the market. All while you as an investor don’t have to get your hands dirty and buy, manage, or finance the property.

    REITs invest in almost every real estate sector. However, in this edition, we will focus specifically on multifamily, hospitality, industrial, and healthcare. Why? Multifamily and hospitality could see substantial recoveries after 2020. Industrial and healthcare had strong 2020s and could continue to succeed in 2021 and long after.

    Hopefully, you find my insights enlightening. I welcome your thoughts and questions and wish you the best of luck.

    Multifamily

    Figure 1- iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ)

    Multifamily or residential REITs own and operate apartment buildings and/or manufactured housing.

    The most important factors to focus on when researching multifamily REITs are affordability, population growth, and job growth. For example, large cities such as New York and LA have higher living costs and more renters. But their job growth and population growth are severely lagging right now. You want large urban centers that show strong in-migration trends and job growth.

    Figure 2: Marcus & Millichap Forecast

    Consider the multifamily market in the Sunbelt and Mountain region. Even before COVID, there was a migration boom and significant employment growth, especially in the Sunbelt region. Plus, this region didn’t lock down as strictly as big cities like New York and LA and saw fewer job losses during the pandemic.

    The Mountain region is also seeing a rapidly growing population, a strong quality-of-life, and affordable living costs. Do you know the ONLY state that saw year-over-year job growth for total nonfarm payrolls in January 2021 while also leading in year-to-date growth? Idaho.

    While multifamily growth will be likely be fragmented based on region, there are two ways you can play this:

    1. Research individual REITs with the most exposure to growing regions.
    2. Add broad-based exposure to multifamily assets through ETFs like the iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ) . While this ETF does not focus EXCLUSIVELY on residential REITs, as it has exposure to healthcare and self-storage, too, this is an easy and convenient way to give yourself multifamily exposure.

    For more of my thoughts on REITs focusing on hospitality, office, industrial, and healthcare, sign up for my premium analysis today.

    Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. If you would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, I encourage you to sign up for my Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action described - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

    Thank you.

    Matthew Levy, CFA
    Stock Trading Strategist

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