Let's take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess the likely crude oil price path ahead.

We wrote these words yesterday, and they ring true also today:

(...) The short-term situation hasn't changed much. Crude oil futures keep trading inside the blue consolidation and around the red support/resistance line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

They're also still trading inside the rising purple trend channel below the upper border of the orange gap. Therefore as long as there is no breakout above these resistances another attempt to move lower is likely.

Yesterday's candle shows that bulls have been rejected at the upper border of the blue consolidation, and the bears keep the initiative today. They're currently working to close the bullish green gap, as black gold is trading below $56.25 as we speak. The daily indicators are supporting the downside move, and the bears' next target would be to break down from the blue consolidation.

Summing up, after yesterday's upswing that partially fizzled out, crude oil is moving lower today. While the short-term picture remains unchanged, prices have backed down from the orange resistance and back below the horizontal red line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The bears' objectives are closing the green gap and breaking below the lower border of the blue consolidation reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The short position remains justified.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Let's take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess the likely crude oil price path ahead.

The short-term situation hasn't changed much. Crude oil futures keep trading inside the blue consolidation and around the red support/resistance line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

They're also still trading inside the purple rising trend channel below the upper border of the orange gap. Therefore as long as there is no breakout above these resistances another attempt to move lower is likely.

Summing up, after yesterday's downswing, crude oil are moving higher today. The short-term picture is unchanged though, as prices are trapped in the blue consolidation and around the horizontal red support/resistance, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the orange resistance. Unless we see a breakout above these resistances, a reversal lower is likely, and the short position remains justified.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to take a look at today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Let's dive right into the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess where crude oil price is most likely to go next.

Yesterday, crude oil futures moved higher, closing the day above the red resistance. That would lend some support to the bulls in their further efforts. However, they haven't managed to close the orange gap for the second time in a row, and they also couldn't overcome the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

That could be interpreted as a sign of weakness. Nearby, there's also the upper border of the rising purple trend channel, serving as an additional resistance. Please note that as the futures hit a fresh peak, we deleted the blue rising wedge and replaced it with the rising purple trend channel.

Earlier today, the sellers triggered a pullback up to the red resistance line. While this can be a verification of yesterday's breakout, it could equally well turn out to be an invalidation of yesterday's breakout, which would open open the way to at least the lower border of the recent blue consolidation.

Taking into account yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute showing that U.S. crude inventories tripled the forecast of an increase of 1.5 million barrels, rising by 4.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1 to 440.5 million barrels, it seems that lower values of crude oil are just around the corner. Especially so if today's EIA report shows a bigger than expected increase in crude oil stockpiles.

Connecting the dots, we think that a reversal and lower values of the commodity are still ahead of us, and short position continues to be justified.

Summing up, while crude oil moved higher yesterday, the bulls didn't end up on a high note. They couldn't overcome the orange resistance zone or the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Prices have pulled back earlier today. If today's EIA report shows a bigger than expected stockpiles increase, it could mark a catalyst for renewed downside. Such an outcome would be supported by yesterday's American Petroleum Institute data. Therefore, our short position remains justified.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Let's dive right into the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess where crude oil price is headed next.

While crude oil bulls made a strong run yesterday, the futures gave up most of their gains before the closing bell. Black gold closed below both key resistances: the red line and the upper border of the gap. As a result, the late-September gap remains open, continuing to support the sellers.

Of note however, yesterday's green gap is also open, supporting the bulls in turn. And they have moved the oil prices up earlier today. Let's quote our yesterday's observations:

(...) Today's open is marked by the green gap, which has sparked further bulls' gains. Prices have reached the red resistance line based on its previous peaks, and also the orange gap that has been open since the end of September.

Let's take a closer look at the chart: there's a potential cup and handle formation (marked with red lines for your convenience). Should crude oil futures move higher from here and close above the red line, the probability of further improvement would increase. Then, we would consider closing short positions.

Summing up, Friday's oil reversal marks a potential cup and handle formation, and should black gold close above the red line and put the late-September orange gap into jeopardy, we'll consider closing our short positions. For now however, they remain justified.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Let's get straight into the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) to find out where crude oil price is headed next.

The daily chart shows that crude oil futures reversed sharply to the upside on Friday. Today's open is marked by the green gap, which has sparked further bulls' gains. Prices have reached the red resistance line based on its previous peaks, and also the orange gap that has been open since the end of September.

Let's take a closer look at the chart: there's a potential cup and handle formation (marked with red lines for your convenience). Should crude oil futures move higher from here and close above the red line, the probability of further improvement would increase. Then, we would consider closing short positions.

Connecting the dots, we decided to move our stop-loss order a bit higher. But should we see further improvement and the orange gap likely to be closed, we'll consider closing our short position.

Summing up, Friday's oil reversal marks a potential cup and handle formation, and should black gold close above the red line and put the late-September orange gap into jeopardy, we'll consider closing our short positions. For now however, they remain justified.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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The overall situation in the very short term deteriorated after crude oil futures closed Wednesday below the upper border of the short-term trend channel. Earlier today, this show of weakness triggered further deterioration, and futures dropped below $55, making our short positions even more profitable. Taking the above into account and combining it with the sell signals generated by the daily indicators, the probability of further deterioration has increased. Therefore, what we wrote yesterday, is up to date also today.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analytical update, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Let's dive into the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) to find out where crude oil price is headed next.

The daily chart shows the previously broken red zone that serves now as support. This is where prices rebounded from yesterday, closing above the upper border of the rising green trend channel.

The futures' invalidation of the earlier small breakdown below this support, is a positive sign for the bulls. Despite this improvement, they however didn't manage to hold on to their gains, and prices attempted to move lower once again before today's market open.

Additionally, the sell signals generated by the CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator remain on the cards, supporting the sellers and further deterioration in the coming day(s). This is especially so when we remember about the tiny gap between yesterday's open and Monday's close still being open.

What could happen if the futures extend declines from here?

In our opinion, we'll see not only a test of the lower border of the very short-term rising blue trend channel, but maybe even a drop to the lower border of the green channel in the following days - yes, that's below our initial downside target.

Summing up, the short position continues to be justified from the risk/reward perspective as crude oil futures moved lower, increasing the probability of an invalidation of the earlier breakout above the upper border of the rising green trend channel. If the situation develops in tune with this scenario, the way to yesterday's low will be open.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Many times in the past, the relationship between these two commodities gave us valuable clues about crude oil future moves. Will the history repeat itself once again? What can we infer about the next gold move from the chart below?

Let's examine the current situation in the oil-to-gold ratio to find answers to these questions.

The daily chart shows that although crude oil-to-gold ratio opened yesterday's session with a bullish gap, moving even higher after the markets' open, the red gap created on September 24, 2019 stopped the bulls. It was the bears that took the reins in the following hours.

The ratio reversed and moved quite sharply lower, invalidating the earlier small breakout above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Additionally, the sellers formed a bearish formation on the above chart - the dark cloud cover pattern.

What do we know about this candlestick formation?

It usually appears at the end of the upward trend and precedes its reversal. Its first part is formed by a white candle. Then a black candle must appear on the market to complete the formation. What's important, is that this candle should open above the close of the first candle, pointing to further buying pressure. And that's exactly what has happened yesterday.

After that, the value/price of a given asset usually moves even higher, but the immediately following decline must be strong enough for the black candle to close below the midpoint of the white candlestick's body. Such a shift from buying to selling suggests that reversal and further deterioration could be just around the corner.

Taking a closer look at the above chart, we see that yesterday's close was below the above-mentioned level, which increases the probability of lower values of the oil-to-gold ratio in the very near future. This is especially so when we factor in the current situation in the CCI and the sell signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator.

That's all very nice but what does it mean for the price of black gold?

The correlation between the ratio and the price of the commodity is very strong (0.97), meaning that lower values of the ratio are highly likely to also translate into further deterioration in crude oil.

And that further deterioration in the ratio, what would it mean for gold?

The correlation between the oil-to-gold ratio and the price of yellow metal decreased significantly in the previous weeks, which means that forecasting the direction of the yellow metal based on this relationship is not a good idea. You will learn much more about the current situation in gold (and the whole precious metals sector) from our Gold Trading Alerts.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It discusses the daily oil price outlook, describing what exactly makes us open a new position and why. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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In Thursday's Alert, we mentioned the struggles the bulls had with the first important Fibonacci retracement, and the importance of who wins the battle in this area. Friday's session showed that the buyers didn't give up as they reached another important resistance area before the closing bell.

Can today's session give us any tips as to the direction of further movement? Let's analyze the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com).

Crude oil futures opened today with a tiny gap. Despite this positive development, the orange gap encouraged the sellers to act, which translated into a pullback. However, this deterioration didn't last long and the bulls returned, pushing the futures above Friday's closing prices.

While this is a positive development, let's keep in mind that as long as the gap remains open, a bigger move to the upside is not likely to be seen - especially when we factor in the proximity to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the upper border of the very short-term rising blue trend channel and the overbought position of both the CCI and the Stochastic Oscillator. They're very close to generating their sell signals.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It discusses what exactly we are keenly watching in the market, what would make us open a new position. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Nothing changed since our yesterday’s premium analysis was posted, and everything we wrote in it remains up-to-date, so saving our subscribers’ time, we’re not posting a regular analysis today. You will find the up-to-date crude oil market analysis below.

Thank you.

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In yesterday's alert, we mentioned the price gap, which opened Wednesday's session. Although it was a bearish signal that could spur further sales, we decided to withhold the decision to open new position because of potentially increased volatility caused by market developments and the EIA inventory data.

Was this a good decision? Let's take a look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com and www.stooq.com ).

While crude oil futures moved lower after the gap appeared, the bulls took the reins after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 1.7-million-barrel crude inventory drop for the week ended Oct.18 (missing analysts' expectations for a build-up of 2.2 million barrels).

This positive event encouraged the buyers to act, which brought about a sharp move to the upside. As a result, the futures not only closed the gap, but also broke above the upper border of the rising green trend channel and the red resistance zone.

This triggered further improvement and crude oil futures climbed to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire September-October decline. Despite the tiny breakout above the retracement, the futures pulled back. This translated into another daily open with a gap, which equals only 8 cents this time.

We saw another attempt to move lower in the following hours, but taking into account the lack of sell signals, it seems that we'll see another attempt to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement next.

If the bulls win the battle around this level, the way to the orange gap and the late-September peaks could be open. But the sellers can take advantage of any sign of their weakness quickly.

Does the current market situation somehow affect our current position? At the moment, the answer is no. Why? Because the potential for the growth seems to be limited not only by the Fibonacci retracement, but also by the aforementioned gap. Therefore, we will wait for the result of the battle for 38.2% Fibonacci retracement before deciding to open any positions.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Oil Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. It discusses also the current situation in the NYSE Arca Oil Index (the XOI). The full Alert includes more details about levels to watch and correlation between the index and crude oil. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Crude oil was rejected at its resistance yesterday, and follow-through selling came in the footsteps. With the ongoing OPEC meeting and inventories report, will the bulls get an ally in their renewed push higher?

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Taking more than its fair share of time, crude oil did in the end respond to the USD weakness with an upswing. And as yesterday's USDX downswing has left a mark on the greenback's short-term outlook, the oil bulls are striving to add to their gains also today. What are their prospects?

Meanwhile, the USD Index breached two important supports yesterday: the declining support line and mid-September low. And that is influencing the short-term outlook - so, what are the scenarios for the upcoming moves exactly?

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