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Stock Pick Updates

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Top 5 Long Stock Picks
Top 5 Short Stock Picks


All 10 carefully selected each week by Paul Rejczak based on two separate techniques for improved diversification. One technique focuses on choosing the best of the most promising sectors, and the other aims to find the stocks that showed most resilience despite being a part of a lagging sector. Both approaches are applied to many sectors and then all stock candidates are reviewed manually, before making it (or not) to our weekly list.

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  • Stock Pick Update: March 18 - March 24, 2020

    March 18, 2020, 8:20 AM

    The corona virus and economic slowdown fears are still dominating headlines. We released our last week's Stock Pick Update just before another wave of the broad stock market's sell-off. Then we have seen very volatile market conditions. Was it a bottoming pattern before a rebound or just consolidation before another decline? We will certainly see more volatility in the short-term. Let's check which stocks could magnify S&P's gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, March 18 - Tuesday, March 24 period.

    The S&P 500 index has lost 10.49% since last Wednesday's open. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have lost 10.07%. They basically followed another huge wave of the broad stock market' sell-off. Our short stock picks lost 2.42% and our long stock picks lost 17.71%. It leads to a conclusion that the recent volatility on the financial markets makes effective stock picking very hard. However, the overall results remain relatively better than the S&P 500 index over last weeks.

    If stocks were in a more prolonged downward correction, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it's not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

    This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

    Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

    • Mar 17, 2020
      Long Picks (Mar 11 open - Mar 17 close % change): ADM (-1.26%), AES (-21.68%), SPG (-45.84%), PSX (-23.54%), BAC (+3.77%)
      Short Picks (Mar 11 open - Mar 17 close % change): COG (+14.72%), CME (-17.57%), NOC (-1.88%), CLX (+14.35%), WEC (+2.48%)

      Average long result: -17.71%, average short result: -2.42%
      Total profit (average): -10.07%
    • Mar 10, 2020
      Long Picks (Mar 4 open - Mar 10 close % change): VNO (-8.94%), WBA (+4.26%), PFE (-1.45%), NBL (-40.68%), JPM (-14.92%)
      Short Picks (Mar 4 open - Mar 10 close % change): APA (-57.45%), PGR (-0.09%), ROK (-9.59%), EQIX (-2.51%), KR (+9.84%)

      Average long result: -12.34%, average short result: 11.96%
      Total profit (average): -0.19%
    • Mar 3, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): BKR (-11.98%), MMM (-2.89%), PFE (+0.18%), EXR (-0.96%), WEC (-2.91%)
      Short Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): MAA (-4.20%), EIX (-9.01%), CLX (-0.02%), OKE (-7.87%), CMI (-6.54%)

      Average long result: -3.72%, average short result: +5.53%
      Total profit (average): +0.91%

    The broad stock market has reached historically high levels in February. The breathtaking correction in December of 2018 was followed by the record-breaking comeback rally. But the recent sell-off suggests that investors should prepare for more volatility. If the market reverses higher, which stocks are going to beat the index? And if it continues lower from here, which stocks are about to outperform on the short side?

    We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

    We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today's trading session (March 18) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday's trading session (March 24).

    First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

    There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

    We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF's.

    The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.

    Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using trend-following approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using contrarian approach:

    Trend-following approach:

    • buys: 1 x Consumer Staples, 1 x Health Care, 1 x Utilities
    • sells: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials, 1 x Industrials

    Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

    • buys: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials
    • sells: 1 x Consumer Staples, 1 x Health Care

    Trend-following approach

    Top 3 Buy Candidates

    LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. - Consumer Staples

    • Potential bottoming pattern
    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Resistance level of $60-70 (upside profit target level)

    BDX Becton Dickinson and Co. - Health Care

    • Breakout above month-long downward trend line
    • Potential resistance level at $260-275 (upside profit target level)

    PEG Public Service Enterprise - Utilities

    • Potential upward reversal pattern - upward correction play
    • The resistance level of $50
    • Positive divergence between the price and RSI indicator

    Summing up, the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities sectors were relatively the strongest since February 18. And they have lost less than the S&P 500 index in the same period. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Stock Pick Update: March 11 - March 17, 2020

    March 11, 2020, 5:29 AM

    The corona virus and economic slowdown fears continued dominating headlines in the recent days. Our last week's Stock Pick Update has been released at the local high of stock market's dead-cat-bounce upward correction. Then the broad stock market resumed its downtrend, and on Monday it basically crashed following Friday's OPEC meeting negative oil news. Let's check which stocks could magnify S&P's gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, March 11 - Tuesday, March 17 period.

    The S&P 500 index has lost 5.37% since last Wednesday's open. But our five long and five short stock picks were flat, as they lost 0.19% in the same period! So our stock picks have been relatively much stronger than the broad stock market for the third time in a row. Our short stock picks gained 11.96% and they outperformed the index on the short side again. Long stock picks lost 12.34%, but the whole ten-stock-picks portfolio performed incredibly well in time of a stock market's big sell-off.

    If stocks were in a more prolonged downward correction, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it's not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

    This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

    Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

    • Mar 10, 2020
      Long Picks (Mar 4 open - Mar 10 close % change): VNO (-8.94%), WBA (+4.26%), PFE (-1.45%), NBL (-40.68%), JPM (-14.92%)
      Short Picks (Mar 4 open - Mar 10 close % change): APA (-57.45%), PGR (-0.09%), ROK (-9.59%), EQIX (-2.51%), KR (+9.84%)

      Average long result: -12.34%, average short result: 11.96%
      Total profit (average): -0.19%
    • Mar 3, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): BKR (-11.98%), MMM (-2.89%), PFE (+0.18%), EXR (-0.96%), WEC (-2.91%)
      Short Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): MAA (-4.20%), EIX (-9.01%), CLX (-0.02%), OKE (-7.87%), CMI (-6.54%)

      Average long result: -3.72%, average short result: +5.53%
      Total profit (average): +0.91%
    • Feb 25, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): XEC (-7.66%), BSX (-5.67%), NUE (-5.31%), PEG (-2.69%), SPG (-2.59%)
      Short Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): AEE (-3.55%), CBRE (-8.58%), INTC (-10.03%), SLB (-13.40%), A (-7.97%)

      Average long result: -4.78%, average short result: +8.71%
      Total profit (average): +1.97%

    The broad stock market has reached historically high levels recently. The breathtaking correction in December of 2018 was followed by the record-breaking comeback rally. The late October - early November breakout led to another leg higher, as the S&P 500 index broke above 3,300 mark. But the recent sell-off suggests that investors should prepare for volatility. If the market reverses higher, which stocks are going to beat the index? And if it continues lower from here, which stocks are about to outperform on the short side?

    We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

    We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today's trading session (March 11) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday's trading session (March 17).

    First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

    There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

    We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF's.

    The stock market sector analysis is available to our subscribers only.

    Based on that, we chose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using trend-following approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using contrarian approach:

    Trend-following approach:

    • buys: 1 x Consumer Staples, 1 x Utilities, 1 x Real Estate
    • sells: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials, 1 x Industrials

    Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

    • buys: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials
    • sells: 1 x Consumer Staples, 1 x Utilities

    Trend-following approach

    Top 3 Buy Candidates

    (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com)

    ADM Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Consumer Staples

    • Potential falling wedge bottoming pattern
    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Positive divergence between the price and RSI indicator
    • Resistance level of $39-40 (upside profit target level)

    AES AES Corp. - Utilities

    SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. - Real Estate

    • Potential upward reversal pattern - upward correction play
    • The resistance levels of $120 and $130

    Summing up, the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate sectors were the strongest since February 11. And they have lost less than the S&P 500 index in the same period. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Stock Pick Update: March 4 - March 10, 2020

    March 4, 2020, 7:48 AM

    Stocks continued selling off, as corona virus and economic slowdown fears kept dominating headlines in the recent days. The S&P 500 index has lost 4.35% since last Wednesday's open. But our five long and five short stock picks were profitable again, as they gained almost 1% in the same period! Let's check which stock could magnify S&P's gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, March 4 - Tuesday, March 10 period.

    The Stock Pick Update for the Wednesday, February 26 - Tuesday, March 3, 2020 period resulted in a gain of 0.91%. The S&P 500 index has lost 4.35%, so our stock picks have been relatively much stronger than the broad stock market for the second time in a row. Our short stock picks gained 5.53% and they outperformed the index on the short side again. Long stock picks lost 3.72%, but the whole ten-stock-picks portfolio performed incredibly well in time of a stock market's big sell-off.

    If stocks were in a more prolonged downward correction, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it's not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

    This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

    Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

    • Mar 3, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): BKR (-11.98%), MMM (-2.89%), PFE (+0.18%), EXR (-0.96%), WEC (-2.91%)
      Short Picks (Feb 26 open - Mar 3 close % change): MAA (-4.20%), EIX (-9.01%), CLX (-0.02%), OKE (-7.87%), CMI (-6.54%)

      Average long result: -3.72%, average short result: +5.53%
      Total profit (average): +0.91%
    • Feb 25, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): XEC (-7.66%), BSX (-5.67%), NUE (-5.31%), PEG (-2.69%), SPG (-2.59%)
      Short Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): AEE (-3.55%), CBRE (-8.58%), INTC (-10.03%), SLB (-13.40%), A (-7.97%)

      Average long result: -4.78%, average short result: +8.71%
      Total profit (average): +1.97%
    • Feb 18, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): PSX (-2.96%), DD (+1.00%), PNC (-2.96%), NRG (+2.83%), EXR (+3.66%)
      Short Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): NEE (+3.91%), PLD (+1.76%), AMD (+4.33%), PXD (-2.28%), DOW (-3.92%)

      Average long result: +0.32%, average short result: -0.76%
      Total profit (average): -0.22%

    The broad stock market has reached historically high levels recently. The breathtaking correction in December of 2018 was followed by the record-breaking comeback rally. The late October - early November breakout led to another leg higher, as the S&P 500 index broke above 3,300 mark. But the recent sell-off suggests that investors should prepare for volatility. If the market reverses higher, which stocks are going to beat the index? And if it continues lower from here, which stocks are about to outperform on the short side?

    We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

    We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today's trading session (March 4) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday's trading session (March 10).

    First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

    There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

    We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF's.

    Let's start with our first charts (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

    There's S&P 500's 30-minute chart along with market sector indicators for the past month. The S&P 500 index has lost 7.55% since February 4. The strongest sector was Real Estate XLRE, as it lost just 1.81%. The Consumer Staples XLP has lost 4.65% and Health Care XLV lost 5.51%.

    On the other hand, the weakest sector was Energy XLE again, as it lost 13.42%. The Financials XLF lost 10.81% and Industrials XLI lost 8.99%.

    Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. This time, we will choose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using trend-following approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using contrarian approach:

    Trend-following approach:

    • buys: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer Staples, 1 x Health Care
    • sells: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials, 1 x Industrials

    Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

    • buys: 1 x Energy, 1 x Financials
    • sells: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Consumer Staples

    Trend-following approach

    Top 3 Buy Candidates

    VNO Vornado Realty Trust - Real Estate

    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Potential resistance level of $57 (upside profit target level)

    WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. - Consumer Staples

    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Positive divergence between the price and RSI indicator
    • Potential resistance level at $50-51

    PFE Pfizer, Inc. - Health Care

    • Consolidation following the recent sell-off, possible medium-term bottoming pattern
    • The price is at the support level of $33.50-34.00, marked by previous lows

    Summing up, the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Real Estate, Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors were the strongest since February 4. And they have lost less than the S&P 500 index in the same period. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Stock Pick Update: February 26 - March 3, 2020

    February 26, 2020, 8:33 AM

    Stocks lost ground, as corona virus and economic slowdown fears dominated headlines in the recent days. The S&P 500 index has lost a stunning 7.5% since last Wednesday's open. But our five long and five short stock picks were profitable, as they gained almost 2% in the same period! Let's check which stock could magnify S&P's gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, February 26 - Tuesday, March 3 period.

    The Stock Pick Update for the Wednesday, February 19 - Tuesday, February 25, 2020 period resulted in a gain of 1.97%. The S&P 500 index has lost 7.46%, so our stock picks have been relatively much stronger than the broad stock market. Our short stock picks gained 8.71% and they outperformed the index on the short side. Long stock picks lost 4.78%, but the whole ten-stock-picks portfolio performed incredibly well in time of a stock market breakdown.

    If stocks were in a more prolonged downward correction, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it's not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

    This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

    Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

    • Feb 25, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): XEC (-7.66%), BSX (-5.67%), NUE (-5.31%), PEG (-2.69%), SPG (-2.59%)
      Short Picks (Feb 19 open - Feb 25 close % change): AEE (-3.55%), CBRE (-8.58%), INTC (-10.03%), SLB (-13.40%), A (-7.97%)
      Average long result: -4.78%, average short result: +8.71%
      Total profit (average): +1.97%
    • Feb 18, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): PSX (-2.96%), DD (+1.00%), PNC (-2.96%), NRG (+2.83%), EXR (+3.66%)
      Short Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): NEE (+3.91%), PLD (+1.76%), AMD (+4.33%), PXD (-2.28%), DOW (-3.92%)
      Average long result: +0.32%, average short result: -0.76%
      Total profit (average): -0.22%
    • Feb 11, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 5 open - Feb 11 close % change): PSX (-0.11%), MS (+1.68%), DD (-1.09%), PEG (-1.98%), NTAP (+3.59%)
      Short Picks (Feb 5 open - Feb 11 close % change): ETR (+1.93%), NOW (-2.72%), PEAK (+0.69%), HAL (-2.07%), STT (+0.91%)
      Average long result: +0.42%, average short result: +0.29%
      Total profit (average): +0.36%

    The broad stock market has reached historically high levels recently. The breathtaking correction in December of 2018 was followed by the record-breaking comeback rally. The late October - early November breakout led to another leg higher, as the S&P 500 index broke above 3,300 mark. But the recent sell-off suggests that investors should prepare for volatility. If the market reverses higher, which stocks are going to beat the index? And if it continues lower from here, which stocks are about to outperform on the short side?

    We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

    We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today's trading session (February 26) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday's trading session (March 3).

    First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

    There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

    We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF's.

    Let's start with our first charts (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

    There's S&P 500's 30-minute chart along with market sector indicators for the past month. The S&P 500 index has lost 5.95% since January 24. The strongest sector was Real Estate XLRE, as it gained 0.66%. The Utilities XLU has lost just 0.18% and Consumer Staples XLP lost 3.12%.

    On the other hand, the weakest sector was Energy XLE again, as it lost 13.80%. The Industrials XLI lost 7.22% and Health Care XLV lost 6.78%.

    Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using a contrarian approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using trend-following approach:

    Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

    • buys: 1 x Energy, 1 x Industrials, 1 x Health Care
    • sells: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Utilities, 1 x Consumer Staples

    Trend-following approach:

    • buys: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Utilities
    • sells: 1 x Energy, 1 x Industrials

    Contrarian approach

    Top 3 Buy Candidates

    BKR Baker Hughes Company - Energy

    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Potential resistance level of $20 (upside profit target level)

    MMM 3M Co. - Industrials

    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • Positive divergence between the price and RSI indicator
    • Potential resistance level of $154-156 (upside profit target level)

    PFE Pfizer, Inc. - Health Care

    • Technically oversold - short-term upward correction play
    • The price is at the support level of $33.50-34.00, marked by previous lows

    Summing up, the above contrarian long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Energy, Industrials and Health Care sectors were the weakest since January 24. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts in a different way than before.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

  • Stock Pick Update: February 19 - February 25, 2020

    February 19, 2020, 9:17 AM

    Let's check which stock could magnify S&P's gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, February 19 - Tuesday, February 25 period.

    The Stock Pick Update for the Wednesday, February 11 - Tuesday, February 18, 2020 period resulted in a modest loss of 0.22%. The S&P 500 index has lost just 0.01% in the same period. So our stock picks were relatively slightly weaker than the broad stock market. However, our average long result was better than the broad stock market's gauge.

    Our last week's short stock picks weren't profitable, as they worsened our overall result, but the stock market has entered a period of short-term uncertainty following recent rally. If stocks were in a more prolonged downward correction, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it's not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

    This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

    Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

    • Feb 18, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): PSX (-2.96%), DD (+1.00%), PNC (-2.96%), NRG (+2.83%), EXR (+3.66%)
      Short Picks (Feb 11 open - Feb 18 close % change): NEE (+3.91%), PLD (+1.76%), AMD (+4.33%), PXD (-2.28%), DOW (-3.92%)
      Average long result: +0.32%, average short result: -0.76%
      Total profit (average): -0.22%
    • Feb 11, 2020
      Long Picks (Feb 5 open - Feb 11 close % change): PSX (-0.11%), MS (+1.68%), DD (-1.09%), PEG (-1.98%), NTAP (+3.59%)
      Short Picks (Feb 5 open - Feb 11 close % change): ETR (+1.93%), NOW (-2.72%), PEAK (+0.69%), HAL (-2.07%), STT (+0.91%)
      Average long result: +0.42%, average short result: +0.29%
      Total profit (average): +0.36%
    • Feb 4, 2020
      Long Picks (Jan 29 open - Feb 4 close % change): SLB (-0.67%), VMC (+2.26%), WFC (-0.34%), CNP (+0.72%), CTSH (+0.94%)
      Short Picks (Jan 29 open - Feb 4 close % change): ATO +0.78%), AAPL (-1.73%), PEAK (-0.11%), KMI (+0.28%, ex div. -$0.25), NEM (-0.16%)
      Average long result: +0.58%, average short result: +0.19%
      Total profit (average): +0.39%

    The broad stock market has reached historically high levels recently. The breathtaking correction in December of 2018 was followed by the record-breaking comeback rally. The late October - early November breakout led to another leg higher, as the S&P 500 index broke above 3,300 mark. But will the rally continue? If the market goes higher, which stocks are going to beat the index? And if it reverses down from here, which stocks are about to outperform on the short side?

    We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

    We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today's trading session (February 19) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday's trading session (February 25).

    First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

    There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

    We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF's.

    Let's start with our first charts (charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

    There's S&P 500's 30-minute chart along with market sector indicators for the past month. The S&P 500 index has gained 1.62% since January 17. The strongest sector was the Utilities XLU, as it gained 7.06%. The Real Estate XLRE gained 5.84% and the Technology XLK gained 5.29%.

    On the other hand, the weakest sector was the Energy XLE, as it lost 9.06%. The Health Care XLV lost 0.89% and the Materials XLB lost 0.84%.

    Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using a contrarian approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using trend-following approach:

    Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

    • buys: 1 x Energy, 1 x Health Care, 1 x Materials
    • sells: 1 x Utilities, 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Technology

    Trend-following approach:

    • buys: 1 x Utilities, 1 x Real Estate
    • sells: 1 x Energy, 1 x Health Care

    Contrarian approach

    Top 3 Buy Candidates

    XEC Cimarex Energy Co. - Energy

    • Declining wedge pattern - potential upward reversal
    • Technically oversold - short-term correction play
    • Potential resistance level of $42-44

    BSX Boston Scientific Corp. - Health Care

    • The price remains above support level of $41.5-42.0
    • Potential breakout above month-long downward trend line
    • Potential resistance level of $43.5-44.5 (upside profit target level)

    NUE Nucor Corp. - Materials

    • Potential breakout above declining wedge pattern
    • Positive technical divergences
    • The price bounces off support level of $47

    Summing up, the above contrarian long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Energy, Materials and Health Care sectors were the weakest since January 17. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts in a different way than before.

    We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Stock Pick Update - this analysis' full version. There, we include the remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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