The oil session wasn't marked by much movement yesterday, but saw quite an overnight upswing. While bullish at first sight, let's count the obstacles in the bulls' way. There're quite a few and the dust isn't yet settled after yesterday's Fed move. Where does that leave us in the oil market? Let's assess the situation objectively.

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Oil has seriously pushed higher. We've written yesterday about the implications of decreasing volume of recent sessions, and announced a bigger move ahead. We've also warned against fake breakouts from the recent oil price consolidation. The $64,000 question is whether yesterday's move has been a fake one, or whether it is the real deal. Let's dive into today's analysis to both learn and adjust the trading position accordingly.

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Oil bulls have given up yesterday's early gains and finished the day lower. The decreasing volatility and volume of recent days tells us that a bigger move is going to be afoot shortly. Could it be today's upswing? Is it a real deal, or a fake one? Let's examine the technical situation objectively...

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Crude oil bears appear to be reigning supreme. After repelling the bulls on Friday, black gold is on a daily downswing today. The market seems to be focused on demand growth concerns, respectable stockpiles and sizable shale production, and less easily charmed by geopolitical flare-ups or any Saudi Arabia - Russia deal. Is there any hope for the bulls on the horizon?

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Crude oil bulls proved weaker and the strength they attempted to project yesterday, evaporated to a considerable degree. Neither today, they appear any stronger. Given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, one could expect a stronger performance. Additionally, OPEC and Russia appear to be close to agreement on their oil supply coordination. Turning to the question on everyone's mind - is the hope for higher oil prices lost?

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