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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • The Slide Continues Right Before the Elections

    October 30, 2020, 11:33 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Gold Stocks’ Bullish Decline

    October 29, 2020, 10:10 AM

    I previously wrote that practically nothing happened on the gold market, which is bearish since gold should be rallying or trading at higher levels, given the pre-election uncertainty. However, gold didn’t wait for the elections to begin with its decline – it plunged yesterday, taking silver and mining stocks along with it.

    To be more precise, it was the mining stocks sector that brought down the rest. Miners moved and closed the day below their previous September and October lows, and therefore anyone who joined us recently is now gaining profits.

    But, is every factor truly bearish for the miners? It is not the case!

    Miners have been undermining gold, which is bearish, and they have also broken below the recent lows, which is also bearish. Moreover, miners have just declined on strong volume after opening the day with a price gap, which at first sight, is bearish.

    The theory is that such sessions are particularly bearish, as they supposedly show the bears' strength. But, before applying any trading tip into practice, it’s important to check if it had indeed worked on a given market, especially in the recent past. And the aforementioned did work… In the opposite way!

    For the third time, miners are declining substantially during one day on a strong volume. We saw the same thing happening in mid-August and late-September. None of them were followed by lower miner prices. Instead, we’ve witnessed corrective upswings that didn’t change the overall downtrend.

    So, from here on in, will miners rally or decline? Overall, the very near term (until the elections in the U.S. and a day-two after that) is unclear. At this point, a temporary rebound here would not surprise me at all, and if we see one, I expect it to be followed by a major slide. That’s precisely what happened right before and after the elections in 2016.

    The precious metals sector (miners included) moved higher right before the elections only to slide profoundly in the following days.

    The post-election decline started from above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the preceding big upswing and the 50-day moving average. It ended once miners declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

    Could that happen again? It seems quite possible – the history might repeat itself to a considerable degree. The GDX ETF is above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and if it moves a bit higher, it will be relatively close to its 50-day moving average.

    Moving below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement – just like in 2016 – it would imply a move below $27.5, which could very well happen if gold declines significantly from here. And it is quite likely to do so, as I emphasized in my previous analyses.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Run-of-the-Mill Performance Amid U.S Elections Uncertainty

    October 28, 2020, 11:38 AM

    In my previous analyses, I’ve made quite a few comments on the factors that support the current precious metals market outlook, and there’s little to add on top of that, as nothing significant happened so far this week. But, whatever happened, was in tune with what we’ve predicted earlier, and the current silence of gold actually provides us with several insights.

    We are aware that gold sustains its momentum for a fourth day in a row – that is, at least based on what’s happening in today’s pre-market trading.

    So, does that seems boring to you? Certainly, since the everything remains evidently the same. How about informative? Well, it does tell us more than it meets the eye.

    As I’ve discussed in one of the previous analyses, due to the looming presidential elections in the U.S, we’re living in ambiguous times. Because of that, gold should get a significant boost. After all, it’s a safe-haven metal. Or, at least it’s perceived as one.

    Despite this theoretical tendency, gold is either unwilling to move higher, or the current prices are already the “boosted” ones. Nevertheless, both are bearish pieces of information as they indicate that once the post-election dust settles, gold is likely to lose its current boost. Perhaps the additional decline will be triggered due to the lack of uncertainty.

    In the meantime, by being weak relative to gold, miners continue with their bearish indications. Gold did pretty much nothing over the last three days (not counting yesterday’s upswing). And how did miners respond?

    Overall, miners declined. Yes, they moved higher yesterday, but they are still visibly below their October 22nd closing price, whereas gold closed practically at the same level yesterday.

    To make the apples-to-apples comparison, let’s focus on the way GDX reacted to GLD’s movement. The former ETF represents the gold miners, and the latter – of course – gold. The useful characteristic of the GLD ETF here is that its closing time is exactly the same as the closing time for the GDX ETF. This is not the case with gold’s continuous futures contracts.

    The GLD ETF closed at $178.83 on October 22nd, and it closed at $179.02 yesterday. In other words, it moved higher very insignificantly (about 0.11%).

    During the same time, the GDX ETF moved from $39.19 to $38.83 – it declined by about 0.92%. This move is not gargantuan either, but it’s notable, and most importantly the direction of both moves is opposite.

    This means that miners continue to be weak relative to gold, which means the bearish implications of this link remains intact.

    Moreover, given today’s pre-market move lower in gold, it seems likely that miners’ yesterday’s upswing will soon be erased as well.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Sustaining the Momentum

    October 27, 2020, 7:50 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Silver: A Conceivable Dead-Cat-Bounce on the Cards

    October 26, 2020, 10:44 AM

    Silver is not just any industrial metal. Used as money for centuries, much longer than the fiat currencies have been used, with its specific properties that are also widely used in many industries (best conductor of heat and electricity), with crude oil, it is perhaps one of the most versatile commodities.

    As far as the white metal is concerned, on September 24th, we have warned you about the possible temporary rebound.

    Silver is after a major breakdown, and it just moved slightly below the recent intraday lows, which could serve as short-term support. This support is not significant enough to trigger any significant rally, but it could be enough to trigger a dead-cat bounce, especially if gold does the same thing.

    That’s exactly what happened.

    So, is the counter-trend rally over? That’s entirely possible, particularly if we consider the USDX breakouts. However, given the possibility of higher stock market moves, silver could move somewhat higher before it slides once again.

    In early March, silver moved higher before indeed plunging, so the current move up doesn’t invalidate this similarity, especially that the coronavirus cases are rising in a quite similar way (this similarity is most visible in Europe).

    Technically, silver moved as high as it did on July 28th, on an intraday basis. The corrective rally is not as little as one might think while focusing on just Friday's upswing. But that is not the critical thing here. The key thing is that the breakdown below the rising support line was more than confirmed.

    At this point, one might ask how do we know if that really is just a dead-cat bounce, and not a beginning of a new strong upleg in the precious metals sector. The reply would be that while nobody can say anything for sure in any market, the dead-cat-bounce scenario is very likely because of multiple factors, and the clearest of them are the confirmed breakdowns in gold and silver, and – most importantly – the confirmed breakout in the USD Index.

    Now, since silver has already broken below its rising short-term support line, the corrective upswing might already be over.

    Moreover, please note that from the long-term point of view, silver is not that strong.

    While gold moved to new highs, silver – despite its powerful short-term upswing – didn’t manage to correct more than half of its 2011 – 2020 decline.

    Silver has already invalidated its move above the lowest of the classic Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%), which is not something that characterizes extraordinarily strong markets.

    Silver is likely to move well above its 2011 highs, but it’s unlikely to do it without another sizable downswing first.

    If you look at the monthly silver volume levels, it seems likely that the next sizable downswing has already begun. The previous substantial monthly volume in silver accompanied the 2011 top. The analogy doesn’t get more bearish than this. Ok, it would, if there were multiple key tops confirmed by huge monthly volume. But the 2011 top was so significant that other tops are not comparable, except for the most recent one. Thus, the implications are bearish.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

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