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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • Gold drawing last breath before plunge

    November 6, 2020, 9:18 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Will the 2016 Aftermath Happen Again?

    November 5, 2020, 10:10 AM

    Gold miners declined, which might have been the confirmation of the top or the final pause before the miners rally and form the top. In light of what we indicated yesterday, the latter seems more likely (the analogy to the previous post-presidential-election performance) and based on today’s pre-market rally in gold and silver.

    My comments on the above from yesterday remain valid. On Thursday, after gold’s significant Wednesday decline, I’ve indicated the following:

    Miners have been undermining gold, which is bearish, and they have also broken below the recent lows, which is also bearish. Moreover, miners have just declined on strong volume after opening the day with a price gap, which at first sight, is bearish.

    The theory is that such sessions are particularly bearish, as they supposedly show the bears' strength. But, before applying any trading tip into practice, it’s important to check if it had indeed worked on a given market, especially in the recent past. And the aforementioned did work… In the opposite way!

    For the third time, miners are declining substantially during one day on a strong volume. We saw the same thing happening in mid-August and late-September. None of them were followed by lower miner prices. Instead, we’ve witnessed corrective upswings that didn’t change the overall downtrend.

    So, from here on in, will miners rally or decline? Overall, the very near term (until the elections in the U.S. and a day-two after that) is unclear. At this point, a temporary rebound here would not surprise me at all, and if we see one, I expect it to be followed by a major slide. That’s precisely what happened right before and after the elections in 2016.

    Yesterday, I added that the summary above remained 100% valid. Miners moved higher, and given today’s pre-market move lower in gold, it seems that they will decline today. However, given how quickly things are changing regarding the political outlook, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a quick turnaround in gold and a daily rally before it finally plunges. So, it’s not a sure bet that miners formed their top yesterday.

    Indeed - it seems that we’re about to witness a daily rally in the gold miners today.

    Back in 2016, right after the U.S. presidential elections, miners corrected to almost 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the preceding decline, moving briefly above their 50-day moving average. This time, in 2020, both levels are close to each other as well, with the retracement being slightly higher.

    Tuesday’s move to $39.62 was below both levels. If the GDX is to move above the 50-day M.A. once again, at least temporarily, it would have to exceed $40.02. Back in 2016, the GDX declined from about $25 to about $20 (20% decline) in a few days. Could this happen again? It seems quite possible.

    Given gold’s and silver’s pre-market rally (and the firm performance in the general stock market so far this week), it seems that miners could quickly move above their Tuesday high above $40.02 and top somewhere between $40.02 and $40.50 (approximately).

    The 20% decline from $40 would imply a move to about $32, which is the upper border of our target area and the February high.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Gold Slides after Elections, but before Results

    November 4, 2020, 6:35 AM

    In Monday’s analysis, I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections. And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.

    Well, that’s precisely what we’ve witnessed so far. The overnight volatility is significant as the markets try to estimate the election outcome, with the odds keep changing quickly. Let’s start today’s market examination with the USD Index.

    Yesterday, I indicated that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a corrective move lower that would trigger a brief move higher in the precious metals and mining stocks. I’ve also indicated that such a move would only be temporary, and most likely, it won’t last more than several days.

    That’s what we have witnessed. Indeed, the USD Index has moved lower, almost touching the previously broken red resistance line. Yes, it rallied back up but then declined once again in today’s pre-market trading. Given the current political uncertainty, this is a relatively normal post-breakout behavior. The key point is that the USDX didn’t invalidate the short-term, let alone the medium-term breakout. This means that – as I indicated yesterday – these moves are not a game-changer, but instead, they are a relatively normal uncertainty-based phenomenon.

    Gold moved higher yesterday, which erased those gains in the last few hours. So, is the uncertainty-based rally already over? It’s unclear. Given how great the uncertainty is, and regardless of the outcome, it’s likely to be taken to the Supreme Court (or at least heavily protested), the uncertainty might not disappear today.

    And what about gold miners?

    Miners rallied, almost touching their declining resistance line and the 50-day moving average.

    On Thursday, after gold’s significant Wednesday decline, I’ve indicated the following:

    Miners have been undermining gold, which is bearish, and they have also broken below the recent lows, which is also bearish. Moreover, miners have just declined on strong volume after opening the day with a price gap, which at first sight, is bearish.

    The theory is that such sessions are particularly bearish, as they supposedly show the bears' strength. But, before applying any trading tip into practice, it’s important to check if it had indeed worked on a given market, especially in the recent past. And the aforementioned did work… In the opposite way!

    For the third time, miners are declining substantially during one day on a strong volume. We saw the same thing happening in mid-August and late-September. None of them were followed by lower miner prices. Instead, we’ve witnessed corrective upswings that didn’t change the overall downtrend.

    So, from here on in, will miners rally or decline? Overall, the very near term (until the elections in the U.S. and a day-two after that) is unclear. At this point, a temporary rebound here would not surprise me at all, and if we see one, I expect it to be followed by a major slide. That’s precisely what happened right before and after the elections in 2016.

    The summary above remains 100% valid. Miners moved higher, and given today’s pre-market move lower in gold, it seems that they will decline today. However, given how quickly things are changing regarding the political outlook, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a quick turnaround in gold and a daily rally before it finally plunges. So, it’s not a sure bet that miners have formed their top yesterday.

    Back in 2016, right after the U.S. presidential elections, miners corrected to almost 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the preceding decline, and they moved briefly above their 50-day moving average. Both levels are close to each other this time as well, with the retracement being slightly higher.

    Yesterday’s move to $39.62 was below both levels. If GDX is to move above the 50-day M.A. once again, it would have to exceed $40.02, at least temporarily.

    Back in 2016, GDX declined from about $25 to about $20 (20% decline) in few days. Could this happen again? It seems quite possible. This time, GDX is close to $40, so if it declined 20%, it would trade at about $32, which is the upper border of our target are and the February high.

    There’s one more thing that tells us that while we might have seen the top yesterday, it was not necessarily the case.

    Namely, silver didn’t outperform gold yesterday, and miners were not week relative to it (on a day-to-day basis). These are signals that very often herald short-term turnarounds.

    Their absence in yesterday’s trading is a clue pointing to the possibility that PMs and miners will move higher before topping. To be clear, we’re not talking about weeks here, but rather days, or perhaps hours. If silver comes back up strongly today while miners underperform, it will be an apparent signal that the short-term top is already in. Of course, the above is not a sure bet, as PMs and miners could decline right away based on their medium-term breakdowns, but it’s not 100% clear that yesterday was the ultimate short-term top.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Where Will Gold Go After the Elections?

    November 3, 2020, 9:49 AM

    In yesterday’s analysis, I wrote that the market situation is likely to become more specific right before, during, and perhaps shortly after the U.S. presidential elections. And by “specific”, I mean that the markets could begin moving against their previous trends.

    That’s precisely what we’re witnessing right now.

    Yesterday, I commented on the chart above in the following manner:

    (…)

    In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a corrective move lower that would trigger a brief move higher in the precious metals and mining stocks. However, that would only be temporary, and not likely to last more than several days.

    That’s what we see right now – it’s not a game-changer, but instead, it’s a relatively normal uncertainty-based phenomenon.

    Gold is moving higher, but not dramatically so. This is in perfect tune with yesterday’s comments.

    And what about gold miners?

    Miners rallied – which is also in tune with what I wrote previously in my analyses. On Thursday, after gold had declined significantly (on Wednesday), I’ve indicated the following:

    Miners have been undermining gold, which is bearish, and they have also broken below the recent lows, which is also bearish. Moreover, miners have just declined on strong volume after opening the day with a price gap, which at first sight, is bearish.

    The theory is that such sessions are particularly bearish, as they supposedly show the bears' strength. But, before applying any trading tip into practice, it’s important to check if it had indeed worked on a given market, especially in the recent past. And the aforementioned did work… In the opposite way!

    For the third time, miners are declining substantially during one day on a strong volume. We saw the same thing happening in mid-August and late-September. None of them were followed by lower miner prices. Instead, we’ve witnessed corrective upswings that didn’t change the overall downtrend.

    So, from here on in, will miners rally or decline? Overall, the very near term (until the elections in the U.S. and a day-two after that) is unclear. At this point, a temporary rebound here would not surprise me at all, and if we see one, I expect it to be followed by a major slide. That’s precisely what happened right before and after the elections in 2016.

    The summary above remains 100% up-to-date. Miners moved a bit higher, and given today’s pre-market upswing in gold, they might also rally during today’s session. Still, the aforementioned is likely nothing more than a pre-election uncertainty that drives the prices and will most probably subside shortly.

    Finally, let’s look at how gold performed after the previous U.S. presidential elections in 2016.

    It turns out that on average (the thick red line is the average) based on the elections, nothing really happened. However, if we look at the individual price paths, it is evident that gold reversed its course on election day in 2008 and 2004. The link to 2004 and 2008 might not be as important, due to the fundamental similarities in both years including massive stock price plunges, and precious metals.

    Furthermore, since the chart above is based on closing prices only, it misses one major point – the huge 2016 intraday (actually, overnight) reversal, when gold moved over $50 higher only, to slide shortly thereafter.

    So, what does all the above mean for gold? Well, it means that my previous comments are completely justified and legitimate. The trend (which right now is down in the short term) is likely to remain intact. But, a counter-trend pop-up is quite possible, and if it is visible, we shouldn’t attribute any major implications to it.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Stocks and the Dollar Weigh In

    November 2, 2020, 10:20 AM

    It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.

    Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).

    The key take-away from this similarity is that once stocks slide below the September lows in intraday terms, they are likely to decline further. Perhaps much lower.

    Back in 2018, stocks consolidated around the previous lows, and then they declined even more profoundly in the final part of the year. Could the same happen this time as well? Well, it could happen, but with so much money being injected into the system from various directions, we don’t want to say that it's inevitable.

    What is very likely in my view, however, is that stocks will slide, and when they do, they will take the precious metals sector with it. Especially silver, and mining stocks.

    Moreover, let’s keep in mind that the situation continues to be excessive on the forex market.

    Remember when in early 2018 we wrote that the USD Index was bottoming due to a very powerful combination of support levels? Practically nobody wanted to read that as everyone “knew” that the USD Index is going to fall below 80. We were notified that people were hating on us in some blog comments for disclosing our opinion - that the USD Index was bottoming, and gold was topping. People were very unhappy with us writing that day after day, even though the USD Index refused to soar, and gold was not declining.

    Well, it’s exactly the same right now.

    The USD Index was at a powerful combination of support levels. One of them is the rising, long-term, black support line based on the 2011 and 2014 bottoms. The other major support level and a long-term factor is the proximity to the 92 level – that’s when gold topped in 2004, 2005, and where it – approximately – bottomed in 2015, and 2016.

    The USDX just moved to these profound support levels, broke slightly below them, and now it has clearly invalidated this breakdown. For many weeks, we’ve been warning about the likely USD Index rally, and we finally saw it.

    Quoting my previous comments:

    The USD Index moved briefly below the long-term, black support line and then it invalidated this breakdown before the end of the week. This is a very bullish indication for the next few weeks.

    Before moving to the short-term chart, please note that the major bottoms in the USD Index that formed in the middle of the previous years often took the form of broad bottoms.

    Consequently, the current back and forth trading is not that surprising. This includes the 2008, 2011, and 2018 bottoms.

    A crucial aspect is that the rally that we’ve witnessed so far is just the tip of the bullish iceberg. The breakdown below the key support levels was invalidated, which is a strong bullish indicator. Since it happened on a long-term chart and the temporarily broken lines were critical, the implications are incredibly important as well– and they should be visible from the long-term perspective.

    So, how high could the USD Index rally now be? At least to the 100 level (approximately). This way, the upcoming rally would almost match the rally that started after the previous major invalidation – the 2018 one.

    Still, we wouldn’t rule out a scenario in which the USD Index rallies above its 2020 highs before another major top. After all, the USD Index is after a very long-term breakout that was already verified several times.

    There isn’t a market that moves on its own in today’s globalized world economy. Most recently, gold has been correlated negatively with the USD Index and positively with the stock market. Right now, the implications of the general stock market and the USDX movements remain bearish for the next several weeks. However, precious metals could move higher in the next few hours or days.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

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Nov Market Overview

Gold Market Overview

The U.S. passed a milestone! The federal debt in private hands surpassed 100 percent of GDP measured quarterly, in the second quarter of 2020. On an annual basis, it would exceed the size of the economy next year, due to a massive fiscal stimulus and a plunge in revenues amid the coronavirus crisis (however, the fiscal deficits and debts were already increasing significantly prior to the outbreak of pandemic). According to the Congressional Budget Office, the fiscal deficit will reach $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded last year. At 16.0 percent of GDP, the budget deficit would be the largest since the World War II. Is the US waging a war I don’t know about?

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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