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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • Gold Is Warming Up Before Its Move

    September 2, 2020, 7:41 AM

    Yesterday, we wrote the following regarding the USD Index chart:

    The move below the mid-August low in the USD Index is a very recent and likely a very temporary development. Let's keep in mind the long-term USD Index chart. Combining the above with the - more important - long-term picture, it seems likely that the USDX will invalidate the breakdown shortly.

    Remember when in early 2018, we wrote that the USD Index was bottoming due to a very powerful combination of support levels? Practically nobody wanted to read that as everyone "knew" that the USD Index is going to fall below 80. We were notified that people were hating on us in some blog comments for disclosing our opinion - that the USD Index was bottoming, and gold was topping. People were very unhappy with us writing that day after day, even though the USD Index refused to soar, and gold was not declining.

    Well, it's the same right now.

    The USD Index is at a powerful combination of support levels. One of them is the rising, long-term, black support line that's based on the 2011 and 2014 bottoms.

    The other major, long-term factor is the proximity to the 92 level - that's when gold topped in 2004, 2005, and where it - approximately - bottomed in 2015, and 2016.

    The USDX just moved to these profound support levels, and it's very oversold on a short-term basis. It all happened in the middle of the year, which is when the USDX formed major bottoms on many occasions. This makes a short-term rally here very likely.

    While it might not be visible at the first sight (you can click on the chart to enlarge it), the USD Index moved briefly below the long-term, black support line and then it invalidated this breakdown before the end of the week. This is a very bullish indication for the next few weeks.

    Based on the most recent price moves, the USDX is once again below the above-mentioned strong rising support line, but we doubt that this breakdown would hold. We expect to see an invalidation thereof that is followed by a rally.

    Please note that the major bottoms in the USD Index that formed in the middle of previous years often took form of broad bottoms. Consequently, the current back and forth trading is not that surprising. This includes the 2008, 2011, and 2018 bottoms.

    And that's what followed:

    The USD Index invalidated all short-term breakdowns:

    • Below the mid-August low
    • Below the late-July and early-August lows
    • Below the declining red support line

    The implications of these invalidations are very bullish, especially that we saw this show of USDX's resilience right after series of bearish news, for instance in the form of the dovish change in the Fed's approach.

    The bullish implications for the USD Index are bearish for the precious metals sector.

    Yesterday, we reported the following about gold:

    Still, the more important (based on a more profound move - the early-August decline) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was just reached, without being broken. Consequently, the overnight rally was not as bullish as it may seem at first sight. Moreover, let's keep in mind that gold is just before the first of the triangle-vertex based turning points, which means that it's likely to reverse shortly. Since the preceding move was to the upside, gold is likely just before a top.

    And on Monday, we wrote the following:

    Also, as you can see on the chart above, there's a vertex-based reversal "scheduled" for the next several days. In fact, there are two such reversals. This means that gold's recent upswing is likely to be reversed rather sooner than later. A tiny move below the previous lows in the USD Index and then its profound invalidation would serve as a perfect trigger for gold's decline.

    We saw exactly that.

    Gold topped right at the triangle-vertex-based reversal when the USD Index invalidated its breakdowns. It also happened at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

    The final top in gold is most likely in, and we expect the yellow metal to slide shortly. The confirmation of the breakdown below the rising support line based on the March and June lows will likely serve as the "go!" of the move. What we saw recently is already the "get ready, set" part.

    The implications are most profound for the mining stocks, and the full version of today's analysis includes them along with miners' price target. We invite you to subscribe and read today's issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Bullish Gold Move Right In - Or Not?

    September 1, 2020, 6:54 AM

    Available for premium subscribers only.

  • The Case for Gold's Coming Move

    August 31, 2020, 10:34 AM

    Available for premium subscribers only.

  • Gold & Silver Trading Alert #2

    August 28, 2020, 1:43 PM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Making Sense of Yesterday's Gold Gyrations

    August 28, 2020, 9:05 AM

    Available for premium subscribers only.

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Gold Market Overview

For a long time, pundits talked excitedly about the rapid, V-shaped recovery. I never shared this view, finding it too optimistic and without basis in reality. Like Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park, I hate being right all the time, but it really seems that I was right about this issue. According to the July World Flash report by IHS Markit, we can read that "the new wave of infections has reduced the probability of a V-shaped cycle (...) and increased the risk of a double-dip recession (W-shaped cycle)."

What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the fragile, W-shaped recovery is, of course, a better scenario for gold than a quick, V-shaped recovery. It means slower economic growth and longer recession, which would force central banks and governments to expand and extend their dovish stance and to provide the economy with additional rounds of stimulus. Music to gold's ears!

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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