September 6, 2018, 9:16 AM
When gold soars or plunges in terms of the US dollar, everyone is aware of it. When silver does the same, most investors are also paying attention. But, when we move into the realm of other currencies and something important happens on one of the PM-related ratios, almost nobody knows that it happened. Well, important things are happening behind the curtains and we’ll make sure that you’re aware of them and positioned accordingly.
September 5, 2018, 9:47 AM
Just a few months ago silver was trading above $17 and many investors and analysts were convinced that the white metal was about to rally once again after several months of consolidation. We warned you that it wasn’t likely. We painted a very bearish picture for the silver prices and we were laughed at for saying that the white metal could even decline below $10.
Silver is almost halfway there and those who thought that the December 2015 price lows were the final bottom, are likely to be very surprised. Don't be. Be prepared.
September 4, 2018, 8:54 AM
There were only a few analyses that we started with a quote, and there were even fewer that we began by quoting a song. It may even be the first one ever.
I am the storm and I am the wonder
And the flashlights, nightmares
And sudden explosions
- Royksopp, “What Else Is There”
And you will have all the above in September. At least if you’re going to pay attention to gold, silver and mining stocks.
We warned that the key factors had been in place for a long time and those who were willing to listen, have already positioned themselves accordingly. The multiple bearish confirmations, like the steady rise in the gold to silver ratio and the underperformance of mining stocks, have been repeated over and over again. And it looks like PMs are ready to take the main dive. Yes gold will very likely soar to new highs, but not before an epic decline. Are you prepared?
August 30, 2018, 8:28 AM
There was no new intraday low in the USD Index yesterday, but we saw a new weekly low in terms of closing prices. The PMs reacted by moving higher, but the move was not spectacular. Moreover, both metals moved lower in today’s pre-market trading. What can we infer from this combination of factors? Quite a lot.
August 29, 2018, 8:12 AM
In yesterday’s Alert, we warned about the likely reversal in the USD Index and we explained that the implications for gold, silver, and mining stocks were different than many expected them to be. And so, we have indeed seen a reversal in the USDX and the PMs have already declined. They didn’t even wait for the U.S. currency to rally – the reversal was enough to trigger declines. It tells us something very, very important.
August 28, 2018, 8:39 AM
The price changes in the USD Index are one of the key determinants of the price moves in the precious metals sector – at least in the short run. Naturally, the price of gold is going to over- or underperform from time to time and the latter was one of the reasons that contributed to our significant profits on trading positions, but overall, when the USD Index is flashing an important signal, precious metals investors should pay attention to it. Yesterday, the value of the USD Index closed below the neck level of the reverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which seems to be a sell signal for the USD Index, and thus a buy signal for the PMs. Is it really the case?
August 27, 2018, 10:11 AM
Gold, silver and mining stocks moved higher on Friday and the USD Index declined. The move was particularly visible in the case of gold, so it might appear that the bottom in the yellow metal is already in. Especially given the extremely low number of positions held by Large Speculators as shown by the latest CoT report. Is it?
August 24, 2018, 10:53 AM
August 24, 2018, 8:14 AM
The precious metals sector moved higher in the previous several days as the USD Index declined. It all changed yesterday, as the USDX moved higher and the PMs declined. Silver and mining stocks declined enough for this entire week to be a decline. The precious metals rollercoaster is about to start the next big slide. Is your seatbelt fastened?
August 23, 2018, 8:44 AM
We don’t have much to say regarding yesterday’s performance in the precious metals market or in the related markets as nothing really changed. Gold moved $3 higher and changes in silver and mining stocks were similarly small. But, quite a lot is happening in today’s pre-market trading and we can already infer something from the details of the price moves.
August 22, 2018, 9:10 AM
After Trump’s comments on interest rate hikes, the USD Index invalidated the breakout above its rising wedge channel and declined back to it. Invalidations of breakouts usually have immediate consequences, so in this case one might expect the USD Index to decline further in the following days, thus fueling gold’s, silver’s, and miners’ rally. Will the metals and miners indeed soar from their oversold price levels?
The final bottom is likely to be formed later this year at much lower levels and when it comes, one needs to be prepared for it. The good news is that we have just published a new part of the Preparing for THE Bottom series, where we discuss one of the most important issues that need to be considered: what to buy. Should one focus on gold, or silver, or perhaps palladium? Or are the mining stocks the place to be? But if so, should one choose gold stocks or silver stocks? Or maybe juniors? You’ll find our take in this critical discussion in the following article: Preparing for THE Bottom in Gold: Part 6 – What to Buy.
August 21, 2018, 7:52 AM
The most recent decline is very similar to the 2013 one due to multiple reasons and we wrote about it many times in the previous days and weeks. What we didn't write is how exactly this similarity translates into trading suggestions in the following days and weeks and that's what we'll catch up on today. Of course, we can't make any promises regarding performance or price moves, but the odds are that if you're trading or investing in the precious metals market, today's knowledge might save your a ton of money.
August 20, 2018, 8:08 AM
After an extremely bearish week, we finally saw a bit of strength in the precious metals market on Friday. Even mining stocks – finally – rallied. While all the important details seem to come from gold, silver, mining stocks, or one of their ratios, one should not forget about the markets that impact the above in a meaningful way. The most important of these markets is the USD Index, and it just formed a bearish shooting star candlestick in terms of the weekly price changes. That’s a very bearish development, which – if it is followed by a sizable decline in the USDX – is likely to trigger a powerful rally in the precious metals sector. What should one do in such an environment?
In 346 BCE, hoping to avoid a fight that would cost him troops that he would need in Persia, Philip II (king of Macedonia) decided to try to bluff the Spartans into an alliance. “It would be best for you to submit at once,” Philip declared in a message to the city. “If I win a war with Sparta, I will raze it to the ground. I will kill your men, and make slaves of your women and children. I will destroy you.”
Why are we quoting the above right after mentioning the situation in the USD Index?
In response to the above, the ruling council of Sparta, known as the Ephors, sent back a message consisting of just one word. This word is also the perfect reply to the previous sentence regarding the possibility of seeing a PMs’ rally triggered by a sizable decline in the USDX.
August 17, 2018, 8:11 AM
Miners declined substantially once again yesterday even though gold didn't and silver actually rallied. Was that the final part of this short-term decline? The RSI close to 10 seems to suggest so - but is this really the case?
August 16, 2018, 9:22 AM
Gold, silver, and mining stocks declined profoundly yesterday and in many cases the already-huge profits were likely doubled. After all, we had increased the size of the short position to the levels that we’d never increased it to before, precisely because of the odds of seeing this kind of decline that we have right now. The decline in gold was sizable, but the sizes of declines in silver and mining stocks were enormous. The HUI Index broke right through the 2008 low like a hot knife through butter, but silver stopped at the July 2017 intraday low. Did the latter just indicate a local bottom and a relief rally?
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September 25, 2018, 1:35 PM
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September 24, 2018, 8:19 AM