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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • The Dollar Is Breaking Out While the Miners...

    September 17, 2020, 7:23 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • The Dollar Is About to Tip Its Hand

    September 16, 2020, 9:32 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • The Turnarounds in Gold, USDX and Miners

    September 15, 2020, 5:44 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • What Does the Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now?

    September 14, 2020, 8:51 AM

    Some swear by price action, many others rely on indicators. There are actually many gold trading tips built around these techniques. Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index, is one of the rare ones that don't issue signals all that often. And it showed the highest possible overbought reading recently.

    The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn't cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.

    Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing has caused the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also this time. In this case, this move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn't the case. But still, the similarity remains present.

    Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Given the situation in the USD Index, it seems that we're seeing the same thing also this time.

    Please note that back in 2016, after the top, the buying opportunity didn't present itself until the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index was below 10. It's currently above 70, so it seems that miners have a long way to go before they bottom.

    Three weeks ago, we commented on the above chart in the following way:

    Now, since the general stock market moved above the previous highs and continues to rally, we might or might not see a sizable decline early this week. Back in March, the slide in miners corresponded to the decline in the general stock market, and this could be repeated, or we could see some sideways trading after the slide resumes, once stocks finally decline.

    That's exactly what happened. The general stock market continued to move higher, and mining stocks have been trading sideways instead of declining - or rallying. Before miners' pause (and S&P's breakout) miners were repeating their late-February and early-March performance. The implications of the self-similar pattern were bearish, and they continue to be bearish, only the timing changed.

    The GDX ETF didn't manage to break below the lower border of the triangle pattern yet, but given the situation in the USD Index and what we're about to show in you case of gold, it's likely that it will move lower shortly.

    Based on the triangle (marked with red, dashed lines), we get a vertex. This means that it wouldn't be surprising to see an intraday rally that is followed by a decline later today or tomorrow.

    Also, let's not forget that the GDX ETF has recently invalidated the breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2011 - 2016 decline.

    When GDX approached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it declined sharply - it was right after the 2016 top. Are we seeing the 2020 top right now? This is quite possible - PMs are likely to decline after the sharp upswing, and since there are only several months left before the year ends, it might be the case that they move north of the recent highs only in 2021.

    Either way, miners' inability to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and their invalidation of the tiny breakout is a bearish sign.

    Everyone and their brother appear to be bullish on the precious metals sector right now, but if everyone is on the same side of the trade, it's usually a good idea to be on the other side. There are quite a few factors pointing to lower precious metals prices on the horizon, and the situation in the mining stocks is one of them.

    Thank you for reading today's free analysis. Please note that it's just a small fraction of today's full Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks (or even later this week). You will find details in today's flagship Gold & Silver Trading Alert. We invite you to subscribe and read today's issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Gold Is Still On the Move - and So Are Miners

    September 11, 2020, 8:42 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

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Aug Market Overview

Gold Market Overview

For a long time, pundits talked excitedly about the rapid, V-shaped recovery. I never shared this view, finding it too optimistic and without basis in reality. Like Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park, I hate being right all the time, but it really seems that I was right about this issue. According to the July World Flash report by IHS Markit, we can read that "the new wave of infections has reduced the probability of a V-shaped cycle (...) and increased the risk of a double-dip recession (W-shaped cycle)."

What does it all mean for the gold market? Well, the fragile, W-shaped recovery is, of course, a better scenario for gold than a quick, V-shaped recovery. It means slower economic growth and longer recession, which would force central banks and governments to expand and extend their dovish stance and to provide the economy with additional rounds of stimulus. Music to gold's ears!

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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