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If you're interested in gold trading or silver trading and would like to see how we apply our gold trading tips in practice, you've come to the right place. The Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are the daily alert service provided by Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA that deals directly with the latest developments on the precious metals market. The situation is analyzed from long-, medium-, and short-term perspectives and topics covered go well beyond the world of precious metals themselves, ranging from the analysis of currencies, stocks, ratios, as well as using proprietary trading tools. Subscribers also receive intra-day follow-ups in case the market situation requires it. 1-2 alerts per week are posted also in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

Whether you already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-questions.

  • Gold: Is the Breather Over ?

    November 13, 2020, 7:48 AM

    Available to premium subscribers only.

  • Waiting on Gold as Post-Election Dust Settles

    November 12, 2020, 8:47 AM

    Gold is consolidating its recent losses, having inched only slightly higher on Thursday. Once again, practically nothing changed on the precious metals market in the last 24 hours (except for the miners’ daily decline), so today’s analysis will generally be almost entirely a quote from what I wrote in previous analyses.

    I’ll start with a quote from yesterday’s analysis, and I will update it whenever necessary (removing italics from the changed parts).

    Gold truly plunged on Monday (Nov 9), erasing practically the entire election-uncertainty-based rally in just one day. I admit that I didn’t expect this decline to be as big on a single day, but the gold market was definitely ready for a decline, and since it got an unexpected boost from Pfizer (the optimistic test results regarding the possible Covid-19 vaccine), gold sank.

    This situation emphasizes why it’s often a good idea to stick to one trading position even if it’s possible that one sees a countertrend move on a more short-term basis.

    Of course, there will be some who will say that all the technical work resulting in me expecting gold to slide shortly after the U.S. elections was useless, as gold simply responded to more-or-less random news from Pfizer.

    But why did gold decline in light of this news at all? Back in March, gold was declining as Covid-19 cases increased rapidly, so if we’re about to see this trend reversed, shouldn’t gold rally instead?

    And even if one agrees that the Covid-19 vaccine is fundamentally bad for gold (and it is, as it decreases the demand for safe-haven assets, since the situation is seemingly getting back to normal), then why did gold decline almost $100 in a single day, instead of declining $4, $7, $15, or any other – insignificant – number of dollars?

    And why did gold end the session lower without a visible rebound, even though the general stock market erased most of its intraday gains before the session was over ? Given the above, it seems the market realized that initial testing is far from being proof that the vaccine is indeed safe (for long-term use as well), and even further away from being introduced. If people realized that they got ahead of themselves with regard to stocks, then why didn’t the same happen with regard to gold?

    With all these questions in mind, things are no longer as simple as they might have appeared at first sight.

    I’ll tell you why – because the vaccine announcement was just an additional trigger that wasn’t even necessary for gold to decline. The trigger’s presence caused gold to decline more than it would have otherwise, however without it, gold would have declined anyway, due to all the technical reasons.

    I featured multiple reasons in Monday’s analysis, and I encourage you to read it, if you haven’t had the chance to do so, and today, I would like to show you one thing that might be too obvious for one to notice.

    Chart, histogramDescription automatically generated

    It’s about gold’s, silver’s, and miners’ relative performance to what happened in the US Index, and the general stock market since early September.

    The USD Index moved close to its September low, while the S&P 500 moved to its September high. Did PMs and miners exhibit similar strength? No! Gold closed about $150 below its September high, silver closed about $5 lower, and the GDX closed about $4 lower.

    Gold ended Monday’s session close to $1,850, and based on what I wrote on Monday, it seems that the USD Index is on the verge of moving much higher, which will likely trigger more declines in gold. And indeed, since gold just moved to its September lows on Monday and ended the daily decline there, it will now likely take a breather.

    Since gold moved about $20 higher in terms of the daily closing prices on November 10, this might have been “it” – the breather might already be over. Whether that was the case or not, I expect to see a breakdown shortly. This breakdown would be likely to lead to gold declining to about $1,700 – in tune with what I’ve been writing for weeks. I expect gold to rally back up (above $2,000 and beyond) only after declining significantly. And this decline is likely already underway.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • 3 Bearish Similarities in Gold Miners

    November 11, 2020, 7:44 AM

    It’s tempting to read into the recent small upswings in the price of gold and the stock market as a sign that things are on the up. Despite these short-term moves, the writing is in the charts and the charts point to bearish forces gaining strength.

    As gold declines, and the general stock market declines as well, miners are likely to truly slide, taking bearish cues from both.

    ChartDescription automatically generated

    Gold moved somewhat higher yesterday, and miners moved lower yesterday – even below their Monday intraday lows. Based on these moves, we have a situation where all key parts of the precious metals sector: gold, silver, and mining stocks are somewhat above their recent lows, but still close to them. In other words, what might have appeared to be strength in the miners (Monday’s decline was limited in the case of miners when compared to the one in gold), is no longer present.

    Moreover, please note that on the above chart we see at least three self-similarities:

    1. GDX just behaved and topped like in the previous cases that I had marked with blue ellipses
    2. GDX just invalidated the short-term breakout above the declining blue resistance line – just like in September
    3. GDX just rallied for a bit more than a week and stayed above the 50-day moving average for a few days, after which it declined in a rather volatile manner – just like what we saw in the first half of March 2020

    All these self-similarities have bearish implications for the following days, so expecting a bigger rebound or a rally, might not be the best course of action at this time. Besides, if the general stock market moves lower, and given the likely decline in gold, miners would be likely to magnify S&P’s declines – just like they did in March.

    And why would the general stock market decline from here?

    It just got a significant boost from Pfizer as well as a boost from lower uncertainty based on the U.S. presidential election results. How did it react to it? It soared above the previous highs…

    ChartDescription automatically generated

    But only initially. The S&P 500 index failed to hold onto its gains, and it erased most of the rally before the session was over. It declined back below the previous 2020 high, which means that it invalidated the initial breakout. The bearish forces were too strong.

    If the bearish forces were too strong right now – given both above-mentioned bullish boosts – then the bulls are unlikely to push stocks above their September high anytime soon.

    Technically speaking, we just saw a profound shooting star reversal candlestick, which formed on huge volume, as well as invalidation of the breakout above an important level. This is a very bearish combination.

    Consequently, I think that miners will get a powerful bearish push from the stock market and that they will slide further. Not necessarily today, as Monday’s decline might (! – doesn’t have to) require an additional quick breather, but the following days and weeks look very bad for the precious metals sector (including the miners).

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Gold: some calm before the storm

    November 10, 2020, 10:18 AM

    Gold’s very sharp drop on Monday and subsequent slight rebound on Tuesday doesn’t change the overall narrative: gold has to drop significantly further for it to climb steadily again.

    Gold truly plunged yesterday, erasing practically the entire election-uncertainty-based rally in just one day. I admit that I didn’t expect this decline to be as big on a single day, but the gold market was definitely ready for a decline, and since it got an unexpected boost from Pfizer (the optimistic test results regarding the possible Covid-19 vaccine), gold sank.

    This situation emphasizes why it’s often a good idea to stick to one trading position even if it’s possible that one sees a counter-trend move on a more short-term basis.

    Of course, there will be some who will say that all the technical work resulting in me expecting gold to slide shortly after the U.S. elections was useless, as gold simply responded to more-or-less random news from Pfizer.

    But why did gold decline in light of this news at all? Back in March, gold was declining as Covid-19 cases increased rapidly, so if we’re about to see this trend reversed, shouldn’t gold rally instead?

    And even if one agrees that the Covid-19 vaccine is fundamentally bad for gold (and it is, as it decreases the demand for safe-haven assets, since the situation is seemingly getting back to normal), then why did gold decline almost $100 in a single day, instead of declining $4, $7, $15, or any other – insignificant – number of dollars?

    And why did gold end the session lower without a visible rebound, even though the general stock market erased most of its intraday gains before the session was over ? Given the above, it seems the market realized that initial testing is far from being proof that the vaccine is indeed safe (for long-term use as well), and even further away from being introduced. If people realized that they got ahead of themselves with regard to stocks, then why didn’t the same happen with regard to gold?

    With all these questions in mind, things are no longer as simple as they might have appeared at first sight.

    I’ll tell you why – because the vaccine announcement was just an additional trigger that wasn’t even necessary for gold to decline. The trigger’s presence caused gold to decline more than it would have otherwise, however without it, gold would have declined anyway, due to all the technical reasons.

    I featured multiple reasons in yesterday’s analysis, and I encourage you to read it, if you haven’t had the chance to do so, and today, I would like to show you one thing that might be too obvious for one to notice.

    Chart, histogramDescription automatically generated

    It’s about gold’s, silver’s, and miners’ relative performance to what happened in the US Index, and the general stock market since early September.

    The USD Index moved close to its September low, while the S&P 500 moved to its September high. Did PMs and miners exhibit similar strength? No! Gold closed about $150 below its September high, silver closed about $5 lower, and the GDX closed about $4 lower.

    Gold ended yesterday’s session close to $1,850, and based on what I wrote yesterday, it seems that the USD Index is on the verge of moving much higher, which will likely trigger more declines in gold. And indeed, since gold just moved to its September lows yesterday and ended the daily decline there, it will now likely take a breather (it moved about $10-$20 higher today, which is negligible compared to yesterday’s slide) and then I expect to see a breakdown. This breakdown would be likely to lead to gold declining to about $1,700 – in tune with what I’ve been writing for weeks. I expect gold to rally back up (above $2,000 and beyond) only after declining significantly. And this decline is likely already underway.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

  • Post-election highs – Good for Wall Street but not for Gold

    November 9, 2020, 11:59 AM

    Following the close of the U.S. presidential election and latest post-election euphoria, miners posted slight gains on Thursday and Friday, gains which are likely to be short-lived and followed by a sustained decline, if the history charts are any indication.

    When compared to small breakouts over the declining resistance line in August, September and October as well as the small gains and sudden drop by the Gold Miners Bullish Percentage Index back in 2016, the most recent gains by miners are negligible and only predict an eventual and further trend downwards.

    Chart, histogramDescription automatically generated

    The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.

    Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide and this additional upswing has caused the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also this time. In this case, this move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.

    Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top, and right before the big decline. Given the situation in the USD Index, it seems that we’re seeing the same thing also this time.

    Please note that back in 2016, after the top, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index was below 10. Currently, it’s above 70, so it seems that miners have a long way to go before they bottom (perhaps a few months – in analogy to how gold declined in 2016).

    ChartDescription automatically generated

    On Thursday and Friday, miners moved and closed slightly above their 50% retracement of the preceding decline, the declining resistance line based on the August and September highs, and the October highs. The breakout was tiny, so it would require a confirmation. I expect to see its invalidation instead, especially given today’s pre-market decline in gold and the very bullish medium-term outlook in the USDX. In fact, at the moment of writing these words, the GDX ETF is down by over 4% in today’s trading on the London Stock Exchange.

    Even if miners didn’t form a top on Friday, they are likely very close to it, as they once again rallied in the manner that is similar to other sessions that we marked with blue ellipses on the chart. The daily upswing on relatively strong volume that was preceded by a price gap is bullish in theory, but in practice this meant that a downturn was just around the corner 4 times out of 4, when we saw such a combination in the last few months. Consequently, the implications are not really bullish here.

    In particular, what we saw in mid-September appears similar to what we see right now. Back then, the GDX ETF was also after a small breakout above its short-term, blue support line and the 50-day moving average. A relatively sharp short-term decline followed at that time, and the same seems likely also this time.

    Also, let’s not forget that the GDX ETF has recently invalidated the breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2011 – 2016 decline.

    ChartDescription automatically generated

    When GDX approached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it declined sharply – it was right after the 2016 top. Are we seeing the 2020 top right now? This is quite possible – PMs are likely to decline after the sharp upswing, and since there are only several months left before the year ends, it might be the case that they move north of the recent highs only in 2021.

    Either way, miners’ inability to move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and their invalidation of the tiny breakout is a bearish sign.

    The same goes for miners’ inability to stay above the rising support line – the line that’s parallel to the line based on the 2016 and 2020 lows.

    Last week, miners have once again moved back to the upper border of the rising long-term trade channel, but they failed to rally above it. This means that the bearish indications based on the above chart remain up-to-date.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the following is just a small fraction of the full analyses that our subscribers enjoy on a regular basis. They include multiple premium details such as the interim target for gold that could be reached in the next few weeks. We invite you to subscribe now and read today’s issue right away.

    Sincerely,
    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager

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Gold Market Overview

The U.S. passed a milestone! The federal debt in private hands surpassed 100 percent of GDP measured quarterly, in the second quarter of 2020. On an annual basis, it would exceed the size of the economy next year, due to a massive fiscal stimulus and a plunge in revenues amid the coronavirus crisis (however, the fiscal deficits and debts were already increasing significantly prior to the outbreak of pandemic). According to the Congressional Budget Office, the fiscal deficit will reach $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded last year. At 16.0 percent of GDP, the budget deficit would be the largest since the World War II. Is the US waging a war I don’t know about?

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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