June 8, 2018, 8:28 AM
We just saw another specific divergence on the precious metals market. Part thereof – silver – visibly rallied once again (especially on an intraday basis), while both key proxies for mining stocks – another important part of the PM sector – HUI Index and GDX ETF, were down. Investors wanting to check what’s really going on are looking at gold for guidance. They aren’t getting any, as gold didn’t really change (which seems bearish compared to silver’s rally), but at the same time, it’s above the declining trend channel, which may appear bullish. What should one make of all this?
June 7, 2018, 7:15 AM
We just saw a specific divergence on the precious metals market. Part thereof – silver – visibly rallied, while the key proxy for gold stocks – another important part of the PM sector – HUI Index, was up by a mere 0.12%. Investors wanting to check what’s really going on are looking at gold for guidance. They aren’t getting any, as gold didn’t really change (which seems bearish compared to silver’s rally), but at the same time, it’s above the declining trend channel, which may appear bullish. What should one make of all this?
June 6, 2018, 7:36 AM
Gold, silver, and mining stocks moved higher once again yesterday and the former even managed to move above the declining trend channel. Breakouts are bullish and thus the outlook for gold improved significantly… Or did it? Gold’s price in terms of the euro and gold’s relative performance to silver and mining stocks make replying to the above question quite easy. Looking at the relative price moves on a day-to-date basis doesn’t provide any interesting implications, but who says that it’s the only way in which one can examine them?
June 5, 2018, 7:45 AM
In yesterday’s alert, we elaborated on how boring the situation in the precious metals market has been and what implications it has going forward, especially in tune with the True Seasonal tendencies. Yesterday’s performance in the precious metals market serves as a perfect confirmation of what we wrote yesterday, and the details of the session allows us to make even more specific prediction. There was a specific sign in the mining stocks that’s practically invisible to those, whose analysis of the sector doesn’t extend beyond looking at the GDX ETF.
June 4, 2018, 5:00 AM
Gold moved lower in May and it’s also down in June, but the price action is far from being spectacular. The overall volatility is still very low and the situation in the precious metals sector is simply extremely boring. But with May now being over and with a new month, new factors are likely to come into play and the odds are that this month will be anything but boring. Especially, if we see the continuation in the analogy that practically nobody seems to realize.
June 1, 2018, 8:50 AM
The USD Index moved a bit lower yesterday, and the precious metals sector reacted by… moving lower as well, which likely caught many gold investors by surprise. Not us. Gold and USD are doing exactly what seemed likely at this time and it has implications for the following days as well. In addition to discussing the above, today's alert includes an in-depth analysis of the little-known relationship between gold and the Japanese stock market. There's more than one signal coming from this analysis and all of them seem important at this time.
May 31, 2018, 6:49 AM
The USD Index seems to have topped as it’s already more than one index point below this week’s high and gold’s reaction was… Less than spectacular to say it politely. To be precise – gold did almost nothing and the reaction was very boring. No action = no implications? Wrong. The above tells us quite a lot.
May 30, 2018, 8:25 AM
The euro plunged, the USD Index soared and gold… just stayed put. There was no meaningful action except for the big intraday volatility that ended in a rather small decline. Can one infer anything at all from the above combination of factors? Yes, if one knows where to look.
May 29, 2018, 9:30 AM
Gold is moving back and forth around the $1,300 level without a decisive breakout or breakdown, while the cyclical turning point approaches in case of the mining stocks. How is the latter likely to impact the precious metals’ prices given the unclear very short-term direction and amid increased tensions between USA and North Korea and in the light of renewed trouble in Europe?
May 25, 2018, 7:30 AM
In the previous alerts, we wrote that the precious metals market was likely to reverse on Wednesday and Thursday based on the triangle apex turning points and thus a rally was possible. The possible upside target area was between $1,303 and $1,309. Gold just topped at $1,306 – right in the middle of the above estimate. Was this really the final top? Mining stocks showed great strength indicating bigger rallies on the horizon. Will we see them shortly? Context is king in any market situation, so in order to answer this question, we’ll have to consider it first.
May 24, 2018, 7:58 AM
If Aerosmith was recording their hit song Crazy today, they might get a lot of inspiration from yesterday’s performance of the precious metals sector. Gold reversed after moving to new intraday high, silver took a dive and miners soared. This doesn’t make sense at the first sight. While soaring silver and underperforming stocks were bearish, the opposite is probably indicating higher prices, right?
May 23, 2018, 9:06 AM
In yesterday’s analysis, we explained how it’s possible for the precious metals sector to move higher in very short term and at the same time still form the next local bottom close to $1,250. The key part of the analysis was that this week’s turning point may turn out to be declines’ starting, not ending. We also argued that we could see a small decline in the USD Index and that might be enough to cool down traders’ emotions. It seems that we have seen just that, and now the question is: how soon can we expect gold to decline?
May 22, 2018, 8:05 AM
The turning points for this week are looming and there was no meaningful move so far. At its beginning, yesterday’s session seemed to be a decline, but ultimately it turned out to be a reversal. The opposite was the case for the USD Index. So the question is: if the turning points have already played out and we have seen a short-term bottom in the PMs, should we still expect to see a major slide shortly and a true bottom later this week? In today’s alert we’ll deliver our reply.
May 21, 2018, 7:06 AM
Gold, silver and mining stock prices haven’t done much in the final part of the previous week, but it doesn’t mean that it’s a good time to sit back and relax as nothing is likely to happen this week. Conversely, there are two apex-based turning points this week and it seems that the next several days will be anything but boring.
May 18, 2018, 7:39 AM
Silver moved higher on Wednesday and also during yesterday’s trading and many precious metals investors and traders are likely hoping for a new sizable rally. Mining stocks, with gold’s help, have just killed this hope.
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