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The Silver Opportunity in Disguise

June 11, 2019, 7:32 AM Przemysław Radomski , CFA

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Silver soared - and silver plunged. The history repeated itself to the letter. Practically each time after silver finally shows strength relative to gold, and silver investors cheer, the rally is invalidated, and a massive decline follows. While we think that silver's investment potential for the long run is enormous and we have special plans for the white metal in our long-term investment strategy, it doesn't prevent us from using the above mechanism as a reliable sell signal. We shorted the silver market on the day of the exact top and just one day later, silver already erased most of its May-June rally. Yesterday's closing price was the lowest in June. There's still huge potential in this trade, but one may be wondering if it's due to the decline's potential continuation, or perhaps based on the rally that might follow such a dramatic daily plunge...

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Gold Market Overview

The pundits have been predicting recession for years. Just like a shepherd boy, they have continuously cried the wolf. The boy's pranks (the gloomy forecasts of economists) were a false alarm and those who believed them, made the type I error, i.e., they incorrectly rejected the null hypothesis that there is no wolf (recession).

But what is now crucial is to not commit the type II error, i.e. incorrectly accept the null hypothesis that there is no wolf. While a recession does not eat sheep (as far as we know), it can consume your capital and deplete your wealth. This is why in this edition of the Gold Market Overview, we take the possibility of the U.S. recession in 2020 seriously.

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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