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przemyslaw-radomski

The Waning Momentum of Gold's Rally: Is the Top In?

June 10, 2019, 7:23 AM Przemysław Radomski , CFA

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What a week! Gold rallied $35 and broke to s new 2019 high and it all happened on weekly volume higher than any other we have seen so far this year. This record has profound implications that will most likely be felt for many weeks to come. You see, this kind of strong volume action took place only several times in the past two decades and it was always followed by the very same thing.

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The pundits have been predicting recession for years. Just like a shepherd boy, they have continuously cried the wolf. The boy's pranks (the gloomy forecasts of economists) were a false alarm and those who believed them, made the type I error, i.e., they incorrectly rejected the null hypothesis that there is no wolf (recession).

But what is now crucial is to not commit the type II error, i.e. incorrectly accept the null hypothesis that there is no wolf. While a recession does not eat sheep (as far as we know), it can consume your capital and deplete your wealth. This is why in this edition of the Gold Market Overview, we take the possibility of the U.S. recession in 2020 seriously.

Read more in the latest Market Overview report.

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