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przemyslaw-radomski

Don’t your charts become outdated if the market conditions change?

October 15, 2010, 12:00 PM Przemysław Radomski , CFA

In your analysis you use a lot of charts. Don’t they become outdated if the market conditions change? You use charts, patterns and algorithms. However, the assumptions on which you use them could have evolved along with the change in the underlying economic context. This could imply these tools are no longer applicable.

Generally, our reply is somewhat similar to what we've already discussed in the September 3rd, 2010 Premium Update, but still we would like to remind how and why it works. The point is, that charts can discount large amount of information, such as business and presidential cycles and so on, but the only thing that could invalidate their usefulness at all would be the change in human psychology and that is something that is not going to change from one year to the next or from one president to the next. After all – there are even 50-year and longer charts that provide relevant information and definitely take many economic environments into account. In short, some charts may remain valuable even if the market turns around.

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