What are the chances that gold will go down another 200, 300, or whatever and stays there for years or keeps going down? In the end, if metals stay in a bull phase, then you have the right idea of trying not to time the bottom, and simply getting in at a significant pullback.
At this point there are no signs suggesting that the bull market is over and it's not very probable that gold moves a few hundred dollars lower and stays there for years (say for 3+ years). It would take gold well above $5,000 to just match the 1980 high in real terms (taking unchanged inflation numbers into account) and we're not even halfway there.
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