Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.3-0.6% on Monday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment further improved following Friday's monthly jobs report release. The S&P 500 index has reached new all-time high at the level of 2,143.16. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,130-2,135, marked by previous resistance level. The next important level of support is at around 2,100-2,120. On the other hand, potential level of resistance is at 2,150, and the next resistance level is at 2,200 mark. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.4-0.5%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.1-1.5% so far. Investors will now wait for the Wholesale Inventories number release at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it extends its recent rally. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,130, marked by previous level of resistance. The next important support level is at 2,100-2,120. On the other hand, potential resistance level is at 2,150. Will the market continue higher despite short-term technical overbought conditions?

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades above its yesterday's local highs. The nearest important level of support is at 4,450-4,460, and the next support level is at 4,500-4,520. On the other hand, resistance level is at 4,600, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its last week's rally on Monday, as investors reacted to economic data releases, among others. We still can see short-term overbought conditions accompanied by bearish technical divergences. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Our speculative short position has been closed yesterday, at the stop-loss level of 2,140 (S&P 500 index). We lost 48 index points on that trade, betting against strong short-term uptrend off late June local low at around 2,000. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow. Currently, we prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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