Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.7% on Tuesday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors reacted to quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases, among others. The S&P 500 index has reached new all-time high at the level of 2,284.63. It was slightly above the early January record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades relatively close to round resistance level of 20,000 and the technology Nasdaq Composite has reached new record high at the level of 5,606.53. Will the market extend its year-long medium-term uptrend even further before some more meaningful downward correction? The next possible resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,300 mark. On the other hand, the nearest support level is at around 2,255-2,260, marked by recent local lows. The next support level is at 2,230-2,240, marked by the late December local low. We can see new long-term highs within almost eight-year-long bull market from 2009 multi-year low of 666.8. However, the index remains within a month-long consolidation. Is this some kind of a topping pattern before downward reversal? The S&P 500 index still trades along medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up between 0.3% and 0.4%, as investors' sentiment further improves following an overnight global stock markets rally. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.3-1.2% so far. Investors will now wait for series of quarterly corporate earnings releases. They will also wait for some economic data announcements: FHFA Housing Price Index at 9:00 a.m., Crude Inventories at 10:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it continues its yesterday's rally. It currently trades along new record high, which is slightly above the level of 2,280. The nearest important support level is at 2,270-2,275, marked by previous local highs. The next support level remains at around 2,250-2,260. On the other hand, potential resistance level is at 2,300. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The futures contract broke above its short-term consolidation, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market indices, as it currently trades close to new all-time high above 5,100 mark. The nearest important support level is at 5,080-5,100, marked by previous level of resistance. The next support level is at 5,030-5,040, marked by recent fluctuations. Will the technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract accelerate its medium-term uptrend? We still can see short-term technical overbought conditions. However, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far.

Concluding, the broad stock market broke above the resistance level marked by its recent consolidation, as investors reacted to quarterly corporate earnings. Will those earnings reports drive the broad stock market even higher before some more meaningful downward correction? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see medium-term overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on December 14 at 2,268.35 - daily opening price of the S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level remains at 2,330 and potential profit target is at 2,150 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

To summarize: short position in S&P 500 index is justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following entry prices, stop-loss orders and profit target price levels:

S&P 500 index - short position: profit target level: 2,150; stop-loss level: 2,330
S&P 500 futures contract (March 2017) - short position: profit target level: 2,145; stop-loss level: 2,325
SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500, not leveraged) - short position: profit target level: $214; stop-loss level: $232
SDS ETF (ProShares UltraShort S&P500, leveraged: -2x) - long position: profit target level: $16.35; stop-loss level: $14.00 (calculated using trade's opening price on Dec 14 at $14.78).

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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