Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.4-1.5% on Thursday, following Wednesday's "FOMC Rate Decision reaction" move up. The S&P 500 index bounced off resistance level of 2,080-2,100. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,000-2,020, marked by previous local lows. For now, it looks like a relatively volatile consolidation following October rally:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.5-0.6%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.6% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates along the level of 2,020. The nearest important level of support is at 2,000, and resistance level is at around 2,050, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it fluctuates along the level of 4,560. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,600, and support level is at 4,480-4,500, marked by previous local low, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market retraced its Wednesday's rally following Fed's Rate Decision release. It continues to trade within medium-term consolidation. Our short position (2,088.35, S&P 500 index) has been closed at the stop-loss (profit taking) level of 2,060 - S&P 500 index on Wednesday. Overall, we gained almost 30 index points on that one-and-a-half month long trade. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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