Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence. We decided to change our long-term outlook to neutral recently, following a move down below medium-term lows:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.4% on Wednesday, as investors hesitated following recent rally. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term uptrend, as it got closer to 2,000 mark. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 1,980-2,000, marked by previous consolidation, among others. On the other hand, support level remains at 1,950, marked by previous resistance level. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions. Last year's August - September lows continue to act as medium-term support level, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Productivity number at 8:30 a.m., Factory Orders, ISM Services at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction following recent move up. But will the uptrend extend even further? The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,000. On the other hand, support level is at 1,965-1,970, marked by yesterday's local lows, among others. There have been no confirmed short-term negative signals so far.

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it fluctuates following its recent rally. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,350, marked by local high. On the other hand, support level is at 4,300, among others. For now, it looks like a relatively flat correction within a short-term uptrend:

Concluding, the broad stock market slightly extended its short-term uptrend yesterday, as investors reacted to some economic data releases. There have been no confirmed short-term  negative signals so far. The index continues to trade along last year's August - September local lows, as they act as medium-term level of support. However, it still looks like a correction within a medium-term downtrend. We still prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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