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Why is your analysis of gold heavily influenced by the US dollar?

July 20, 2012, 12:00 PM Przemysław Radomski , CFA

I appreciate greatly your regular analysis, but cannot help but have doubts on one aspect of your technical analysis. It is significantly influenced by the USD index movement, in which when the euro falls, the Index rises and risk assets fall off, including gold (in an environment where inflation is for tomorrow and global growth is slowing).

Yes, our analysis is currently heavily influenced by the movement in the USD and euro, but the key word here is "currently". There will be a time (as you write below) when gold will move higher whether the dollar moves higher or not. In fact, this has already happened before. At times we have even analyzed currencies and used tops in USD as a signal for tops in gold. Just because USD is currently the key factor for precious metals investors and traders, doesn't mean that it will remain so going forward. That's why we constantly monitor correlations between various markets and see how they change, so that we know when to pay extra attention to the currency markets and when it's only optional.

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