Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Let's put the geopolitical gyrations in oil into a proper perspective by taking a look at the monthly chart. The overall situation hasn't changed much as crude oil is still trading inside the blue consolidation below three very important resistances (the red and orange bearish gaps and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), which form the key resistance zone for the coming week(s).

Additionally, the volume is decreasing on a monthly basis, which raises the probability of a reversal in the near future. Therefore, as long as there is no successful breakout above the mentioned consolidation and resistances, another move to the downside is very likely.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist