Hello,

All markets remain very volatile today, and they can't really find any direction as there's a lot of uncertainty going on in the Black Sea basin region. Apparently, Vladimir Putin has no intention of getting involved in a long-lasting conflict. However, it is clear now that he is going to provoke a change of regime in Ukraine to abort the US-led NATO's plans to extend further to the East. Navigation has been interrupted on both the Azov and Black Seas.

Following a spike to reach a 3-figure price per barrel for the first time since 2014, crude oil prices retraced back to their opening price yesterday following some gains at such levels. They're pausing today in the pre-US session with doji candlesticks showing strong hesitation. Meanwhile, Europe is eying oil and gas from the Gulf in search of alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons in the face of Moscow's military escalation against Ukraine. However this option does not appear certain. Increasing oil production and shipping new quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is not so simple.

WTI Crude Oil (CLJ22) Futures (April contract, daily chart)

All our thoughts go to all the parties involved in that conflict — in particular, those who suffer the consequences of it — while hoping the situation will bring to the negotiation table some sort of resolution consensus as soon as possible, leading to a rapid de-escalation.

Trade cautiously and have a nice weekend!

That’s all, folks, for today.

As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed.

Best regards,

Sebastien Bischeri
Oil Trading Strategist