Trading position (short-term; my opinion; levels for crude oil’s continuous futures contract): Those entering the market now can do so by holding long positions with entry at $63-63.5, with $59.7 as a stop-loss and $68.20 as the initial price target.
The Iran deal is almost near completion, which means the sanctions on Iran oil exports are going to be lifted soon. In the absence of any other strong indicator, the market is finally reacting to Iranian oil.
Oil Market: Key Updates
- Iran president Rouhani says a broad outline has been reached to end oil sanctions with just a few steps remaining to reach the final deal. The US has agreed to lift key sanctions such as on oil, petrochemicals, shipping, insurance & the central bank.
- Swiss bank UBS is expecting US demand to catch up to pre-COVID levels by the end of next month with the Brent oil price of $75 for a barrel in the second half of it.
- EU oil demand keeps rising mainly due to large vaccination drives.
- India still struggles with a large number of Covid-19 cases – daily new cases are coming down, but daily deaths keep on increasing.
The key news for oil is the imminent addition of Iranian oil to the market which is expected to have a mellow bearish impact in the short term.
Note: Our trading positions remain the same.
Thank you.
Nishant Jain, MBA, CPSM
Oil Trading Strategist
