We always have mixed feelings when we write January editions of the Market Overview. On the one hand, we are always surprised how quickly a year has passed. Time runs so fast – only gold stays unmoved, shining for the eternity.
On the other hand, we like summaries as we always learn something new about the gold market – something we can share with our clients. And we also like writing fundamentals forecasts, as it forces us to reject accidental movements and all that informational noise. It pushes us to focus on what is really the most important for the gold market, and thus, our client’s profits.
In this edition of the Market Overview, we will summarize last year in the gold market from the perspective of its fundamentals. It was quite a fascinating period. The Fed hiked the federal funds rate four times. The ECB ended its quantitative easing. Populists won elections in Italy and clashed with the EU Commission over the fiscal policy. Democrats took over the control of the House. Angela Merkel announced her resignation from the leader of the CDU. Trump’s tax cuts became effective, widening the US fiscal deficit. Trade wars intensified. The stock market corrected. Inflation has peaked. The cryptocurrencies plunged. The bond yields surged.
What is important is that our summary is not merely backward-looking. On the contrary, the analysis should help investors better understand the gold market, and draw investment conclusions for the New Year.
We will also present our fundamental outlook for 2019, presenting our base scenario and its implications for the gold market. We will focus on the impact of the macroeconomic drivers, such as the interest rates, the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary policies, the US fiscal policy, etc.
Last but not least, we will analyze whether investors should expect recession in 2019 or 2020. We conclude that the warnings against the next crisis may be premature, drawing significant implications for the adequate position in the precious metals market.