gold market - investment & analysis


What Drives The Price of Gold? Part 3: Money Supply, Public Debt, Oil Price and Stock Market

September 1, 2015, 6:57 PM Arkadiusz Sieroń , PhD

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The financial press and academic literature analyze many potential drivers of gold prices. We have already explained the most important incentives for gold investment, such as hedging against inflation, seeking for safe-haven against financial crises or portfolio diversification. We have also examined the relationship between gold and mining production, jewelry, industrial or central banks’ demand, as well as the U.S. dollar and interest rates. However, the list of possible determinants of the price of gold is much longer and includes inter alia, money supply growth, public indebtedness, oil prices, the stock market, the bond market, GDP growth, ETF inflows, and speculation and manipulation. In this edition of the Market Overview we will see how the first four factors affect the price of gold. Many analysts claim that the price of gold is driven by changes in the money supply, public debt, oil prices or stock market dynamics; however the relationship between them and gold is not so simple. In reality, the often observed correlation between gold and these factors constitutes a co-movement in response to the same macroeconomic factors rather than causal relationships. What are then the real links between them and the price of gold? And what is the ultimate driver of the price of gold if these four variables are not? We will answer these questions in the September Market Overview, and give precious metal investors a more comprehensive view regarding the stereotypical relationships between gold and money supply, public debt, oil prices and the stock market.

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