Recession is coming to town! This is at least what everyone seems to believe right now. But are they right? The aim of this edition of the Market Overview is to answer this million-dollar question. We start from the official indicators used by the NBER (such as real income or industrial production) to authoritatively determine the beginnings and endings of the US recession. Then, we examine historically the two most reliable indicators of the American slumps: the unemployment rate and the yield curve. Last but not least, we analyze other important indicators, such as jobless claims, auto sales or consumer sentiment, to assess the state of the US economy and to draw important conclusions for the precious metals investors.
However, it’s not that the whole report is devoted to the recession and ways to predict it. We could not ignore the spike in the price of palladium – hence, the first part of our report is about the recent developments in the palladium (and platinum) markets, in particular in the context of the dynamic changes in the automotive industry and tense political situation in South Africa.