Yesterday, we've heard the ECB President speak and tomorrow, it's the Fed's turn. What about the time in between? Well, the markets still move and it's our job to be positioned accordingly so as to profit from whatever is unfolding. And what kind of opportunities we've managed to catch! Good news, the ride is far from over. Let's take a look at the way things are shaping up. We'll then sharpen our battle plans accordingly. We even have a new candidate for opening a long position to tell you about!
EUR/USD - Heading Lower
Yesterday's EUR/USD session saw a meek attempt of the bulls to move higher that ended up pretty much going nowhere. Earlier today, we saw a similar push higher but the bulls gave up all their gains and some. As the pair currently trades at around 1.1195, our short position has become even more profitable.
The present downswing has caused a breakdown below the early-June lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, opening the path to even lower values down the road. The sell signals of the daily indicators remain on the cards, further supporting the bearish case.
Should the pair move even lower later today, we're likely to see at least a test of the upper border of the previously-broken declining blue trend channel in the very near future.
Clearly, yesterday's comments by Mario Draghi that more stimulus may come, have played a role. So far among the most important central banks, it has been only the Fed that has done some real tightening and balance sheet shrinking to speak of. In the run-up to tomorrow's FOMC, we'll have U.S. real estate data later today to move the markets - building permits and housing starts.
USD/CAD - Taking a Bullish Turn
USD/CAD has jumped higher on Friday, breaking back inside the short-term rising blue trend channel. This bullish development has been met with some follow-through buying since. Yesterday's attempts to move the rate lower have been rebuffed and earlier today, the bulls keep pushing higher. The pair is solidly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement as we speak.
All in all, this suggests that we'll see a test of the orange resistance zone created by the June 4 peak and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in the coming days. Especially so if USD/CAD breaks above the June 6 high.
USD/CHF - An Upswing in the Making?
USD/CHF has extended gains in recent days, climbing to the declining red resistance line that is based on the May peaks. At the same time, the pair has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the orange resistance zone (created by the late May lows).
The daily indicators are on buy signals, giving support to the bulls. The nearest resistances may prove too little of an obstacle for them as a result. If the bulls keep showing more strength, we could see them testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement or even the 61.8% one, followed by the upper red resistance zone.
Summing up the Alert, EUR/USD's upswing has fizzled out yesterday and the pair keeps pushing lower these very moments. Mario Draghi's utterances have a hand in that. Similarly in GBP/USD, the worries of a no-deal Brexit keep pushing the pound lower. Both profitable short positions remain justified. Should we see the USD/CHF bulls breaking above the nearest resistances in strength, we'll consider opening long positions. There're no other opportunities worth acting upon in the currencies right now.
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Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
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