January 5, 2015, 6:32 AM
Is gold a hedge that rallies when stocks are falling or is gold now a risk-on / risk-off asset just like the stock market? Gold’s performance through business cycles has always been an important issue, but with tumbling crude oil prices in a freefall, it’s become very timely.
The decline in crude oil prices has more implications than most investors think – there is even a very important, yet overlooked link to the part of the bond market. The US dollar’s very strong performance (the fundamental aspect thereof is of great importance), action in the emerging markets, carry trades (not only the yen carry trade) and the issues that investors in the commodity market and – particularly – in the precious metals sector need to be aware of and take into account.
In the January 2015 Market Overview, we analyze the above-mentioned issues and discuss their implications for commodity investors in general and – in particular – for precious metals investors.
December 1, 2014, 11:31 AM
QE3 is now history... Or Is It?
Is the end of QE really a sign of a strong U.S. recovery? Some analysts agree, forecasting that gold will fall towards the $800-$900 level, while others fear that without Fed’s bond-buying program, a market crash may be on its way, leading to investors’ renewed interest in gold.
On October 29, the Fed stopped pumping money into economy in the form of the third round of Quantitative Easing, but there are ways in which the program is still present.
In the Fed’s statement we could read the following: “Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction”. These are the subtle signs that not everything is over just yet. Ending QE is not putting on the brakes; it is just easing off the accelerator.
In the December Market Overview we take a much closer look into this very important matter, explain the above intricacies and discuss their impact on the gold market. We invite you to read it and stay prepared for the coming changes.
November 3, 2014, 9:26 AM
Much is usually written about the link between gold and the USD Index and it is not without a reason. This key relationship often provides the necessary confirmation for opening and closing positions in gold, silver and mining stocks. In turn, taking or failing to take it into account can be equal to the difference between a winning and losing a gold trade.
In the November Market Overview, we dig very deep into this relationship. We explain why’s, how’s and why not’s regarding this all-important link. Does gold always follow dollar’s footsteps (hint: gold soared between 1978 and 1980, while USD moved sideways)? When gold rallies along with the dollar and when does it move independently? In this report you will find answers to these important questions and - most importantly - you’ll learn how to apply this knowledge in the current market environment. We invite you to profit from our insights.
October 6, 2014, 7:53 AM
Gold and the interest rates - the topic has been covered multiple times, but we feel it didn't get enough coverage with regard to some key issues and in October Market Overview we fill this informational gap.
It is often emphasized that gold moves in tune with the real interest rates. However, the situation is not as simple as most analysts suggest. The relationship between gold and rates is complex and there are times and circumstances under which it doesn't have to work in the above-mentioned way (this month's report covers 7 reasons for which it doesn't have to work at all times). Knowing when to apply this link and when to refrain from it could make you many dollars in the following months.
What do terms like: Gibson's Paradox, Golden Dilemma and Elfenbein's model mean in the gold vs. rates discussion and how should one take this relationship into account while preparing for gold's future price swings? We invite you to read the October Market Overview and learn more about these important issues.
September 1, 2014, 6:12 AM
This month’s Market Overview report is dedicated to explaining the very popular relationship between gold and the geopolitical concerns. Gold moved sharply higher when Russia took over Crimea, but now it has erased the previous gains and is generally moving lower even though Russia still has Crimea and the tensions have escalated. Why? Has gold lost its safe-haven status? Why does gold sometimes react to geopolitical events and sometimes it “refuses to respond” to them? Wars, sanctions, threats and rumors regarding the all of them - which could cause gold to move and which can be ignored by gold investors? These are the issues that we discuss in this month’s Market Overview report and we encourage you to read it.
August 5, 2014, 8:29 AM
It is important to review the minutes released recently by the Fed, since they may well signal a turning point in monetary policy. The programs of active purchasing of government debt and commercial assets may be curtailed. Yet, as we have often discussed at length, it is not the most important element. There are other factors of monetary policy to be considered: interest rates for one, and the Federal Open Market Committee suggested they may start to discuss interest rate hikes.
This, and one more factor seem to be what gold investors really need to focus on, instead of following everyone else that talk about the fading away QE program. Will gold still be a good investment when (and if) Fed does what it gently mentions? You'll find our take on the situation in the August Market Overview report.
July 3, 2014, 8:16 AM
Believe it or not, we are finally witnessing a true monetary revolution. Unfortunately it is not the one that gold bugs have long waited for. Quite the opposite. We have the so called “monetary cranks” governing one of the most important central banks in the world. People who set the interest rates not at very low, not even at zero, not even at negative real interest rates, but at negative nominal interest rates. Hold your horses and constrain your joy – this does not concern the interest rate on your loan. It is the interest rate for the deposit facility at the central bank.
It can, however, affect your portfolio in a different way. Read the July Market Overview report and find out how.
June 5, 2014, 3:12 PM
It is quite challenging to fully understand and comprehend governments’ attitudes towards gold. So many times we have heard the preaching against this precious metal. We were being informed that the gold standard, or actually any commodity standard (that is an anti-central bank standard), is too burdensome to keep the economy going (or too burdensome for the central bank to survive). Horrible demons of deflation would eventually come out on top, and what business sector wants price deflation to happen?
May 5, 2014, 10:06 AM
When people think about ways of generating economic growth they usually focus on the results. Will the results be significant? Will the inflation stay under the target level? Will the unemployment levels decrease? Many hours are spent on discussing these issues and comparing costs with gains, and even more hours are spent on writing long research papers.
There is, however, one question that is just as important and that is rarely asked. The question is how the goal (whether it is justified or not) is going to be reached. It's not something that can be forgotten. It's something that makes a huge difference on the entire economy and whose impact is always felt by individual citizens and investors. That's something we have to take into consideration and use this knowledge to position ourselves correctly in the long-term market trends. That's also something that we discuss in this month's Market Overview report.
April 1, 2014, 12:52 PM
The price of gold depends on many factors, but past patterns can give us important hints and suggest which of them are to be carefully studied and properly comprehended. If history were to teach us anything about gold’s past market values it would most primarily be the following: watch out for the feds! Wise observation of government policies is the main driving force for what is happening in the gold market (surely along with supply factors in the longer run). As we discussed a month ago, this is the main reason for the observed correlation between the gold price and the interest rates. Not because interest rates per se are always casually linked to the gold price. But because interest rates are a reflection of current government policies. In the April Market Overview report we are going back to the possible interest rate hike subject, so passionately and almost obsessively discussed in the media. What's likely to happen soon and what's likely years away? We invite you to read our thoughts on this topic in the current report.
March 4, 2014, 11:57 AM
Can the gold price be fundamentally related to some other economic variables? Can we use those variables successfully in order to predict future price of gold? Is gold highly correlated with any of those variables?
Real interest rates are often said to be highly correlated to gold. Is this really the case and just how much can they tell us about future gold price moves? This is the issue which we deal with in greater detail in this month's Market Overview. We invite you to read it and stay updated on gold prices given signals from the real rates.
February 3, 2014, 12:20 PM
Recent days have seen a round of stories as to how emerging markets are declining. Argentinian currency is tumbling down, the Venezuelan currency has been greatly devalued, the Brazilian economy got hit, the Turkish lira is collapsing. As one of the commentators of Business Insider summarized, it was a real “bloodbath” in the emerging markets. How will all this affect the dollar economy? How will the USD itself perform?
As we have demonstrated in the Market Overview again and again, the Federal Reserve dropped inflationary bombs. Inflationary in the purely monetary sense by supplying money in almost ridiculous amounts, especially base money figures. During this process some commentators believed that the dollar would soon evaporate. It hasn't and, in fact, the USD Index has been moving higher since 2008. Why? How is that possible given all the dollars that have been "printed" since that time? Doesn't the basic law of supply and demand work anymore? In the January 2014 Market Overview we analyze this critical issue and - as always - we discuss the implications for the gold market.
January 6, 2014, 4:08 PM
As we know the Taper ghost is here. But does it change anything in our outlook for the upcoming 2014?
In the January 2014 Market Overview report we illustrate just how much is different after Fed's recent comments and the decision to taper the open-ended Quantitative Easing program, and we discuss Fed officials' predictions regarding interest rates in 2014 and 2015.
There is much speculation on how the balance sheet is to be adjusted. In general the Fed communicates to the public the program as it is aimed at some particular macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation rate and so forth. Actually it is more probable that the program is based on direct considerations about the financial market. In the January report we discuss the probable real reason behind the tapering.
As always, the report discusses the implications of the above for the gold market.
December 2, 2013, 6:11 AM
Tapering is not the same as tightening even though everyone seems to view these terms as synonyms. We had previously described tapering as highly unlikely, but the truth is that it was an oversimplification that we used to make a point about the possibility of monetary policy tightening without getting into details - which we do in the December Market Overview.
Some form of “tapering” may actually happen even though the Fed stays “easy like Sunday morning” in its approach to money printing, and… One form of tapering has already been seen in 2010!
The truth is that there's much more to the tapering issue than just the Quantitative Easing program simply because there are more tools that the Fed uses than the QE itself:
- Interest rates are kept very low for a significant amount of time
- Quantitative easing, which means money production for support of various assets, especially government bonds
- Easing in terms of qualitative aspects, that is the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet which has benefited not only government bonds, but also mortgage backed securities
One of the most important questions for gold investors regarding Fed's policy is what could be tapered and what's highly unlikely to be tapered. The even more important question is how it will impact gold market and your portfolio. You'll find details in today's essay.
November 4, 2013, 9:29 AM
It turns out that Bernanke had told investors what he would do years before it happened... That is, if investors had known what they should've focused on. In the November Market Overview report we'll discuss these very early indications and examine what an analogous technique can tell us about Yellen and the upcoming years.
In this month's report we'll also discuss Yellen's efficiency in predicting the inflation rate, labor markets outcomes and GDP growth. She has been widely praised as the best predictor from the group of the Federal Reserve Policy makers. However, it is not her efficiency that is the most important thing that investors should be considering. It is the justification behind these predictions. When one digs deeper and gets to the core of Yellen's approach, one will be well-prepared for her actions despite the usual smoke-and-mirrors talks preceding the meetings.
We have, and we put our findings in this month's report. As you may recall, we wrote that there would most likely be no tapering weeks before the official statement and despite the popular opinion. The November Market Overview gives you the very first heads-up on what's to come based on techniques that have already worked.
October 1, 2013, 7:55 AM
In September we observed a highly overrated meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It attracted lots of media and investor attention because many were expecting the Fed to announce the beginning of “tapering.” All the hoopla surrounding the meeting turned to naught when tapering tapered out, but the question remains: how will the tapering look like and when will it take place?
September 20, 2013, 1:16 PM
Although follow-ups are not a regular part of the Market Overview service, we wrote one to keep you 100% updated on the most important economic piece of information - the Fed decision to keep the QE program intact. As we explained in the previous report, this was in fact the likely outcome - Fed minutes indicated it. What's next? Will we see tapering this year? What's the outlook for gold given the recent comments? What's the link between Fed's decision and the fact that Fed's new Chairman will be chosen shortly? These are the key issues that we focus on in today's quick follow-up.
September 3, 2013, 1:46 PM
In the September Market Overview report we will focus on what is probably the most important factor that will to a great extent determine what will happen in the coming months, not just in the precious metals market, but also in bonds, stocks and real estate markets.
Yes, you guessed correctly – we are going to discuss the Fed’s possible actions and the probable effects on the markets. Will we actually see any form of tapering or will we just hear about it? If so how will remarks made by the Fed impact actual events? As you know, very often what Bernanke or someone other Fed official says can ignite large price moves. So, for the analysis to be complete, we should focus not only on what happens but also on how it is announced.
Based on the possible combinations we created eight scenarios and we discuss how each of the markets (gold, stocks, bonds, real estate) could perform in each of them. We also explain which are the most and least likely. If they play out in the future you will already know what to expect in the following weeks/months. Be prepared.
August 9, 2013, 6:56 PM
The wait is over! Starting today, we accept subscriptions to our monthly Market Overview report. It’s an add-on to Premium Updates that enables you to see great things from the distance. The price tag is liberal. $14.95 per month.
Inside this issue:
- The place of gold in the current state of affairs
- Gold as an anti-inflation hedge?
- Anti-inflationary investing vs. anti-system investing
- Physical gold market and the financial market
January 30, 2015, 8:51 AM
January 29, 2015, 6:46 AM
January 28, 2015, 8:48 AM