Oil prices have been on a rise after the OPEC+ concluded its meeting deciding to follow the earlier plan of increasing oil production gradually.

Oil Market: Key Updates

• A very quick and swift meeting of OPEC+ (not even half an hour) ended, and the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to stick to the earlier plan with respect to the monthly oil output increase in July (after hikes in May and June).
• Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman revealed that he has no illusions by addressing the latest net-zero road map by IEA as out of the "La La Land" movie.
• Overall, OPEC+ maintains a cautious approach to increasing oil production, which leads to hikes in prices.

Rising demand from the US, China and Europe and a catch-up from India and Japan later on will create an acute supply-demand gap leading to higher oil prices.

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Oil prices pulled back slightly due to the addition of Iranian oil to global supply, even though they’ve been rising recently.

Oil Market: Key Updates

• Iran-US discussion is entering its final stage. Oil prices have therefore dropped slightly, as investors expect a successful outcome of the deal.
• Gasoline demand before Memorial Day weekend is ramping, rising by 10.8% in the last 7 days.
• President Biden will propose a $6 trillion budget that would take the U.S. to its highest sustained levels of federal spending since World War II.

Rising demand, increasing investment in oil and limited supply are pointing to a strong bullish oil market, at least in the medium term.

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Nishant Jain, MBA, CPSM
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Oil prices are rising again, recovering from the last week’s losses caused by the Iran-US deal. The current price support at $66 for WTI is backed by optimism in the market about rising demand.

Oil Market: Key Updates

• The number of US domestic passengers hit a fresh post-Covid peak of nearly 1.9 million on Sunday (May 23), according to data from TSA.
• India and Japan Covid-19 cases are on a steady decline.
• EU updates its economic forecasts as vaccination campaigns take off with current estimates of GDP growth rate of 4.2%

The Iranian deal is in the final stages. Once announced officially, we may see some bearish action, but, for the most part, this week is expected to be bullish.

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Nishant Jain, MBA, CPSM
Oil Trading Strategist

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