I’ve heard that the main driving force of the markets comes from investors who are trying to predict the government policies. If this is right could quantitative, technical, and statistical analyses be completely overruled and become ineffectual? If someone has enough cash, they can trigger a huge rally or a significant selloff in any market. Does this mean that there are no sure bets and we shouldn’t invest in anything?
Any analysis (fundamental, technical, cyclical, fractal, econometric model, etc.) can be suddenly overruled - but that is no reason to ignore them. In our view ignoring these analyses and not investing in anything is wrong because it confuses what's possible with what's probable. Instead we suggest taking what's probable (most of the time each of the systems of analyses mentioned above will be useful, and by combining them we'll get more information than we could by just using one of them) and positioning yourself accordingly.
Fundamentals are favorable for gold, silver and mining stocks. Dedicate a part of your capital to long-term investments. The market inevitably corrects from time to time - use charts and other tools to gain on most of them. Don't expect catching each move, as it's impossible to accomplish. Financial markets could be destroyed overnight if China dumps its dollar holdings or derivative holders worldwide default or the COMEX defaults, etc. There are plenty worst case scenarios. Be sure to own physical precious metals as well.
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