gold market - investment & analysis

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Greece’s Crisis and Gold

June 2, 2015, 9:48 AM Arkadiusz Sieroń , PhD

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The gloomy economic situation of Greece has been the topic of many Gold News Monitors – we wrote recently about it here and here, but also in the February Market Overview dedicated to European turmoil from the beginning of this year. Since Hellas has to pay off over €1.5 billion to the IMF in June and €7 billion to the ECB to repay government bonds (including interest), which mature in July and August, it is high time to analyze more thoroughly the relationship between Greece’s debt crisis and gold. We first examine the institutional foundations of the Eurozone and its currency, as the flawed construction of the Eurozone was partially responsible for the Greece’s reckless fiscal behavior. We explain why the euro is a political project without much economic sense and why the current Greek debt crisis was inevitable, given the “tragedy of the euro” responsible for the unstable nature of the Eurozone and its currency. We analyze how the misconstruction of the Eurozone contributed to the Greece’s debt crisis and provide a brief history of the Greece’s financial problems. We examine how the past problems affected the gold market. We focus, however, on the current economic difficulties and the possible future scenarios for Greece. We analyze how the current crisis can influence the gold prices and how the potential scenarios for Greece’s future can affect the global economy and the gold market. The base-case scenario is still that a bailout deal will be reached in coming days, however Hellas is again on the brink and the probability of Grexit increased recently. We examine, thus, what would the Grexit look like and what are the possible effects of such scenario on the gold market.

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