Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Tuesday, following relatively volatile trading session, as investors continued to hesitate. The S&P 500 index remains close to its last week's new record high of 2,193.81. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,190-2,200. On the other hand, support level is at 2,165-2,170, marked by short-term local lows. The next support level  remains at 2,150. Will the market continue higher? Or is this some kind of a topping pattern before downward reversal? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it gets closer to its yesterday's local high at around 2,190 mark. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,190-2,200. On the other hand, support level is at 2,175-2,180, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades close to the level of 4,820. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,830-4,850, and support level remains at 4,790-4,800, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market remains close to its last week's record high. Is this a topping pattern or just consolidation following recent move up? We still can see overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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