Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.1% and +0.4% on Thursday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors reacted to economic data, quarterly corporate earnings releases. The S&P 500 index trades along its last week's new all-time high of 2,175.63. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,170-2,175, and the next potential resistance level is at 2,200. On the other hand, support level is at around 2,150-2,155, marked by short-term local lows. The next important support level is at 2,130-2,135, marked by previous level of resistance. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: GDP - Advance number at 8:30 a.m., Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m., Michigan Sentiment - final at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation. It extends its short-term uncertainty following recent rally. The nearest important level of resistance remains at 2,165-2,170, marked by local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 2,150, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as investors react to better-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings releases. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,730-4,740, marked by all-time high, among others. On the other hand, support level is at 4,680-4,700, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the broad stock market continues to trade along its new records highs, as the S&P 500 index fluctuates following recent rally. We still can see short-term overbought conditions accompanied by bearish technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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