stock price trading

Stock Trading Alert: Positive Expectations Following Recent Move Down - Will Downtrend Reverse?

June 28, 2016, 6:57 AM

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.5-2.0% on Monday, extending their Friday's selloff, as investors continued to react to U.K. "Brexit" referendum results. The S&P 500 index broke below its May local low of 2,025.91 and got close to 2,000 mark. The nearest important level of support is at 1,990-2,000. the next support level is at around 1,970, marked by previous local low. On the other hand, resistance level is at around 2,030, marked by yesterday's daily gap down of 2,031.45-2,032.57. The next important level of resistance is at 2,050, marked by previous support level. Last year's highs along the level of 2,100 continue to act as medium-term resistance level, as we can see on the daily chart:

Daily S&P 500 index chart - SPX, Large Cap Index

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.9-1.0%. The European stock market indexes have gained 2.1-2.5% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces some of its recent decline. The nearest important level of support is at 1,990-2,000, and the next support level remains at 1,980, marked by short-term local lows. On the other hand, resistance level is at around 2,010-2,020, among others. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. However, we can see some potential short-term bottoming pattern:

S&P 500 futures contract - S&P 500 index chart - SPX

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades higher this morning. It retraces its yesterday's selloff. However, there have been no confirmed positive signals so far. The nearest important support level is at 4,170-4,200, and resistance level is at around 4,260-4,300, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Nasdaq100 futures contract - Nasdaq 100 index chart - NDX

Concluding, the broad stock market continued its short-term downtrend on Monday, as investors' reacted to "Brexit" announcement. We decided to close our speculative short position (opened on June 1 at 2,093.94 - S&P 500 index) at the opening of Friday's trading session - the average opening price of the S&P 500 index was at 2,060. Overall, we gained around 34 index points on that trade. Currently, we prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts

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Dear Sunshine Profits,

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