Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
Trading position: (see our previous Crude Oil & Natural Gas articles…)
Oil is still trading back and forth near its support, while Nat Gas is likely to continue retracing. Let’s look at the positions again.
Trading Analysis
- CL, so far, is still bumping into sturdy support, even though we have seen in the past days the US dollar getting stronger. Due to global uncertainties, it appears that investors are getting back into the greenback these days. Despite the massive increase of the dollar’s weight (+450% over the past year), it is still being considered a “King”.
Today we saw that the crude bounced once again from the support, which might lead towards the current VPOC (in the first place) but also reintegrate the triangle pattern.
Figure 1 – Dollar Index (DXY) Futures (Continuous contract, daily)
Figure 2 – Brent (CL) Crude Oil Futures (Continuous contract, daily)
- NG is likely to enter July’s main volume node where the bulls could be waiting.
Yesterday the market closed below KijunSen, even though it made a new low this month.
So, in our scenario, we will be monitoring whether the buyers find the previous month volume area a fair price to get back in. Let’s wait and see!
Figure 3 – Henry Hub (NG) Natural Gas Futures (Continuous contract, daily)
In summary, the scenarios that were drawn at the beginning of the week for both energy products are still being validated by the recent market developments.
For the time being, the crude looks well-positioned to continue higher given the fundamental and technical landscapes, while natural gas is likely to retrace further before we see a rebound.
As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers well informed.
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the key levels may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
Trading position (see our previous Crude Oil & Natural Gas articles…)
Thank you.
Sebastien Bischeri
Oil & Gas Trading Strategist
