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Oil Investment - Extensive Monthly Updates

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Are you interested in oil investment?Oil Investment Updates are extensive, monthly analytical reports that keep you updated on the medium- and long-term outlook for the crude oil market. Every first Tuesday of the month Nadia Simmons covers the key oil news and changes in fundamental tendencies and provides you with detailed technical analysis of crude oil, oil stocks along with related markets and ratios. Updates are accompanied by the analysis of scenarios that are likely to be seen in the following weeks along with their likelihood and suggested actions in each case and a simple summary and is accompanied with actionable trading ideas. Additionally, Investment Alerts will be sent whenever the medium- or long-term outlook changes between Updates. Essays based on investment updates are occasionally posted in our Articles section, so you can review these real-time samples before you subscribe.

  • Oil Investment Update: How Much Can a Sharp Rally Be Trusted?

    September 3, 2015, 3:05 PM

    In the last weeks of August crude oil accelerated declines, which resulted in a breakdown not only below the Mar low and the lower border of the declining trend channel, but also in a drop under the psychologically important barrier of $40. In this way, the commodity declined to its lowest level since Feb 2009, hitting a multi-year low of $37.75. Despite this deterioration, light crude reversed and rebounded sharply, invalidating earlier breakdowns and climbing to the 50-day moving average slightly below the barrier of $50. Can we expect lower prices in the following weeks or should we prepare for a major rally?

  • Oil Investment Update: Is The End Of Declines In The Oil Market Near?

    August 6, 2015, 2:44 PM

    Looking at the current situation in crude oil, we can say with conviction that July was the worst month for the commodity since the begining of the year. In this period of time, crude oil lost 20.85% (making our gains on the short position even bigger) and broke below the Apr low, closing last month at its lowest level since March. Although we saw a rebound after this big downward move, its size didn’t confirm oil bulls‘ strength, which resulted in another decline. On top of that, yesterday’s EIA report showed another drop in crude oil inventories (bullish fundamental factor), the commodity moved lower once again and hit a fresh multi-month low of $44.83. Does this show of weakness suggest lower values of the commodity?

  • Oil Investment Update: Acceleration of Declines and Its Consequences

    July 9, 2015, 5:00 AM

    The crude oil market has certainly made us wait to see the bearish scenario to play out, but when it did, it moved with vengeance. The price of black gold plunged and declined almost $10 this month and those holding short positions were handsomely rewarded. Of course, no market can move up or down in a straight line, so the fact that we saw a rebound after such a big decline is not surprising. Where will crude oil move next and how can one position themselves given the likely outcome?

  • Oil Investment Update: Similarities to June 2014

    June 8, 2015, 3:16 PM

    Looking at the crude oil’s charts from today’s point of view, we can summarize the recent month in one sentence: more of the same. Although oil bulls tried to push the commodity above the key resistance zone several times in the recent weeks, all tests have failed. Is it possible that the oil-to-gold, stocks-to-oil ratios and crude oil priced in "other currencies" give us more clues about future moves?

  • Oil Investment Update: Time for Reversal or Further Rally?

    May 7, 2015, 3:33 PM

    From today’s point of view, we can say with full conviction that April was the best month for oil bulls since June. In the previous month, crude oil erased almost 30% of the June-March declines and almost touched the barrier of $60 as the combination of a weaker greenback, the situation in the Middle East and further reductions in the number of oil rigs supported the price. Additionally, in the first days of the new month, light crude extended rally and climbed to a fresh 2015 high of $62.58. Are there any technical factors on the horizon that could drive the price higher or lower in the coming weeks? Will the oil-to-oil stocks, stocks-to-oil and gold-to-oil ratios give us more clues about future moves?

  • Oil Investment Update: When We See Sizable Rebound In Crude Oil?

    April 9, 2015, 3:46 PM

    In March, crude oil extended declines and hit a fresh 2015 low, but the commodity reversed and rebounded sharply in the following weeks, erasing over 80% of the preceding declines. The first days of April were also good for oil bulls as the commodity extended rally and broke above several resistance lines. Despite this improvement, the most important resistance level withstood the buying pressure and triggered a sharp decline yesterday. As a result, light crude lost 4.26% and invalidated earlier breakouts. Does it mean that crude oil’s rally over?

  • Oil Investment Update: Fundamental Factors Continued To Overshadow Technical Picture Of Crude Oil

    March 5, 2015, 4:25 PM

    The highlight of the previous month was the first monthly increase since June when crude oil began declines. The commodity gained 3.49% and bounced of the Apr 2009 lows once again, which encouraged oil bulls to act and translated to further rally in the recent days. As a result, light crude climbed above $51 and invalidated the breakdown under important short-term support line. Does it mean that the worst is behind us? Or maybe this is another pause before new lows?

  • Oil Investment Update: Have Oil Prices Finally Reached the Bottom?

    February 5, 2015, 2:12 PM

    Although crude oil extended losses, slipping under the Apr 2009 lows and hitting a fresh multi-year low of $43.58 at the end of the previous month, the commodity rebounded very sharply earlier this week. The recent jump in oil prices prompted speculation that the market had bottomed out. Although yesterday oil prices dropped again, the question whether the bear market is close to the end remains. What are the prospects for the oil prices?

  • Oil Investment Update: The Epic Decline and Its Implications

    January 8, 2015, 2:26 PM

    In Dec crude oil lost over 18% as ongoing expectations of growing supplies and concerns over the pace of global growth weighed on the price. As a result, the commodity dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (around $65 per barrel), which accelerated declines and took light crude to the support zone created by the 76.4% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (based on the entire 2009-2011 rally). Unfortunately for oil bulls the beginning of the year brought a breakdown under these levels, which resulted in a drop to the next support area created by the Apr 2009 lows. Will we see a rebound from here? Or maybe this is another pause before new lows?

  • Oil Investment Update: How Low Is Too Low?

    December 4, 2014, 7:10 PM

    In Nov, crude oil broke not only below the psychologically important barrier of $80, but also under the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2009-2011 rally, which accelerated declines and resulted in a multi-year low of $65.69. On top of that, the first day of Dec was also very negative for oil investors as the commodity extended losses to $63.72 and slipped below the solid support zone created by the Aug and Sep 2009 lows and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The breakdown was invalidated almost immediately, but is it enough to trigger a trend reversal? Will the current picture of the USD Index and the gold-to-oil ratio give us more clues about future moves? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Is The End Of Declines In The Oil Market Near?

    November 6, 2014, 4:52 PM

    Without a doubt, Oct was the worst month for oil bulls since May 2012. In the previous month, the commodity lost over 11% as the combination of a stronger greenback, rising supplies and weaker demand weighted on the price. Additionally, the first days of the new month have been very negative for oil investors. After the breakdown below the psychologically important barrier of $80, oil bears pushed the price lower and light crude hit a four-year low of $75.84, breaking under long-term support lines. In this way, the commodity posted its sixth weekly loss in a row. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that the stocks-to-oil ratio will give us some interesting clues? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: The Return of Positive Correlation Between Crude Oil and Oil Stocks

    October 3, 2014, 4:23 PM

    The third quarter of the year is behind us. During the last three months, crude oil declined from the 2014 high of $107.68 to its lowest level since Apr 23, 2013. The commodity lost almost $20 in that period of time, but the previous month was not the worst for currency bulls. In September, light crude dropped by less than $5 and managed to hold above its low of $90.43 for almost three weeks, despite surging dollar. Yesterday, the situation has deteriorated significantly as crude oil declined sharply, hitting a fresh multi-month low of $88.18. As it turned out in the following hours, this deteriration was only very temporarily as the commodity almost immediately invalidated the breakdown not only below the recent lows, but also under the key support zone created by the long- term support line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this point, some of you are probably wondering what does it mean for crude oil? If you want to know our take on this questions and find out what does the ratio between crude oil and the USD Index say about future moves, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: The Moment of Truth for Crude Oil Is Coming

    September 4, 2014, 3:25 PM

    From today’s point of view, we see that the situation in crude oil has deteriorated since our last Oil Investment Update was published. Although WTIC didn’t lose in August as much as in July (the commodity dropped by 1.85%), we saw a decline that took light crude to a fresh multi-month low of $92.50. With this downward move, crude oil declined below the long- term support line and the 200-week moving average, approaching the 2014 low of $91.24. This is the point where you’re probably wondering whether this support will withstand the selling pressure or not. Are there any technical factors on the horizon that could drive the price higher or lower in the coming days and weeks? Will the oil-stocks-to-oil, stocks-to-oil and gold-to-oil ratios give us more clues about future moves? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Is It Time for Growth or Final Decline in Crude Oil?

    August 6, 2014, 2:16 PM

    Without a doubt, July was the worst month for crude oil since the beginning of the year. It spent months climbing slowly from the January low of $91.24 to the 2014 high of $107.68 and then the commodity gave up over 60% of earlier gains in just seven weeks. The latest round of selling triggered a sharp decline below the long- and medium-term support lines, the 200-day moving average and the psychological barrier of $100, which turned the medium- and the short-term outlook to bearish. In the recent days, crude oil reached a very important support zone created by the March low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Where the commodity will head next: north or south?

  • Oil Investment Update: Which Way Next for the Oil Market?

    July 4, 2014, 1:44 PM

    The end of the first half of the year, the second quarter and June are behind us. The confluence of these events has encouraged many analysts to summarize. Without a doubt, it was a quite good time for crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, light crude climbed from the Jan. low of $91.24 to a nine-month high of $107.68 in the previous month. Has the commodity started a long-term bull market? Or maybe we should be less optimistic and treat this improvement only as a bigger correction before the next downward move? What impact could it have on the oil stocks? If you want to know the answers to these questions, we invite you to read this month’s Oil Investment Update.

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