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  • Oil Investment Update: The Moment of Truth for Crude Oil Is Coming

    September 4, 2014, 3:25 PM

    From today’s point of view, we see that the situation in crude oil has deteriorated since our last Oil Investment Update was published. Although WTIC didn’t lose in August as much as in July (the commodity dropped by 1.85%), we saw a decline that took light crude to a fresh multi-month low of $92.50. With this downward move, crude oil declined below the long- term support line and the 200-week moving average, approaching the 2014 low of $91.24. This is the point where you’re probably wondering whether this support will withstand the selling pressure or not. Are there any technical factors on the horizon that could drive the price higher or lower in the coming days and weeks? Will the oil-stocks-to-oil, stocks-to-oil and gold-to-oil ratios give us more clues about future moves? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Is It Time for Growth or Final Decline in Crude Oil?

    August 6, 2014, 2:16 PM

    Without a doubt, July was the worst month for crude oil since the beginning of the year. It spent months climbing slowly from the January low of $91.24 to the 2014 high of $107.68 and then the commodity gave up over 60% of earlier gains in just seven weeks. The latest round of selling triggered a sharp decline below the long- and medium-term support lines, the 200-day moving average and the psychological barrier of $100, which turned the medium- and the short-term outlook to bearish. In the recent days, crude oil reached a very important support zone created by the March low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Where the commodity will head next: north or south?

  • Oil Investment Update: Which Way Next for the Oil Market?

    July 4, 2014, 1:44 PM

    The end of the first half of the year, the second quarter and June are behind us. The confluence of these events has encouraged many analysts to summarize. Without a doubt, it was a quite good time for crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, light crude climbed from the Jan. low of $91.24 to a nine-month high of $107.68 in the previous month. Has the commodity started a long-term bull market? Or maybe we should be less optimistic and treat this improvement only as a bigger correction before the next downward move? What impact could it have on the oil stocks? If you want to know the answers to these questions, we invite you to read this month’s Oil Investment Update.

  • Oil Investment Update: Some Useful Charts And Thoughts About Future Oil Market Moves

    June 3, 2014, 5:05 PM

    May was another good month for oil bulls. During that time, crude oil gained 3.20%, came back above the long- and medium-term resistance lines and climbed to its highest level since mid-April, hitting a five-week high of $104.50. However, at the end of the month, light crude gave up some gains and declined below the resistance zone, which resulted in a verification of the breakdown and a drop below $103 per barrel. The first day of the new month was also positive for oil bears. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio, crude oil priced in "other currencies" and the USO ETF charts will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: The Moment of Truth for the Oil Market Is Just Around the Corner

    May 7, 2014, 5:27 PM

    Looking at the current price level of crude oil, we can summarize the previous month in one simple sentence: return to the starting point. The beginning of April was very promising. At that time, oil bulls started their charge using technical and fundamental factors, which resulted in a 2-week rally and a 6-week high of $104.99. Despite this improvement, they lost their steam in the second half of the month, which fueled a selling pressure and triggered declines. As a result, the commodity dropped below the key level of $100 and we noticed significant technical changes in the short-term picture of light crude. Did they also affect the medium-term outlook? What’s next? Are there any fundamental factors that could drive the price of crude oil higher in the near future? Is the final bottom of the recent corrective move already in or not? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Will Crude Oil Drop Any Further?

    April 3, 2014, 1:49 PM

    From today’s point of view, we see that the situation in crude oil hasn’t changed much since our last Oil Investment Update was published. Although light crude declined in the first half of March and hit a monthly low of $97.37, the commodity reversed and erased 61.8% of earlier losses in the second half of the month. Despite this improvement, April started very badly for oil bulls. Crude oil has lost 2.25% since the beginning of this month and dropped below important supports. What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Can oil climb higher in the nearest future? Would this result in higher levels of the oil index? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Crude Oil and Oil Stocks – The Medium-Term Perspective

    March 6, 2014, 1:20 PM

    February was another good month for oil bulls. During that time, crude oil gained 5.44%, broke above the long-, medium and short-term resistance levels and climbed to its highest level since September, hitting a fresh 2014 high of $105.22. However, at the beginning of March, light crude gave up the gains and declined sharply, which resulted in a drop below $100 per barrel. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Crude Oil and Oil Stocks - The Medium-Term Perspective

    February 4, 2014, 12:01 PM

    From today’s point of view, we clearly see that the beginning of the year was hard for oil bulls. In the first week of January, crude oil extended losses and hit a fresh seven-month low of $91.24. Despite this drop, the situation improved in the coming weeks as light crude invalidated an important breakdown and erased almost 38.2% of the entire Aug.-Nov. decline once again (and more than 75% of the Dec.-Jan. decline). Thanks to this upward move, crude oil closed the month above $97 per barrel. What’s next? Will we see another attempt to move above $100? What happened at the same time with oil stocks? Is it possible that the oil-to-oil-stocks ratio will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Crude Oil and Oil Stocks – The Medium-Term Perspective

    January 8, 2014, 12:04 PM

    The recent month was good for oil bulls. After three consecutive months of losses, light crude rebounded and erased 38.2% of the entire Aug.-Nov. decline. With this upward move, crude oil also broke above the psychological barrier of $100. Nevertheless, this improvement didn’t last long. At the end of December, oil investors took profits, which started the current decline. Did this drop change the outlook for crude oil? What’s next? Can light crude climb higher in the near term? Is it possible that the non-USD (WTIC:UDN ratio) chart of crude oil will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Crude Oil and Oil Stocks – The Medium-Term Perspective

    December 17, 2013, 12:17 PM

    Looking at the chart of crude oil from today’s point of view, we can say that the situation didn’t change much in the previous week. After a sharp rally that we saw at the beginning of the month and an invalidation of breakdowns below the long- and medium-term lines, crude oil gave up the gains and declined below $97. Despite this drop, the current corrective move is still shallow and it hasn’t even reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the recent rally, which suggests that another upswing may be just around the corner. Currently, oil investors are focusing on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and news on the central bank’s bond-buying program. Will the oil market be very sensitive to what happens after that event? Will the Fed decision trigger a further rally or a decline? Before know the answers to these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update and find out what the current outlook for the oil market is. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: The Oil Market - Current Outlook

    December 10, 2013, 1:05 PM

    The first days of the new month have been very positive for oil bulls. After the breakout above the lower border of the declining trend channel in terms of intraday lows, buyers pushed the price higher and broke above another short-term resistance line. This event resulted in a sharp rally, which took light crude above $98. On top of that, crude oil broke above the upper border of the declining trend channel in terms of intraday highs and above the 50-day moving average. In this way, after seven weeks of losses, crude oil posted its second weekly gain in nine weeks. Does this growth change the outlook for crude oil? What’s next? Can light crude climb higher in the near term? Is it possible that the oil-to-gold ratio will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to check out our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Fundamentals, Technical Analysis and Crude Oil

    December 2, 2013, 10:51 AM

    Another hard month for oil bulls is behind us. Market participants pushed crude oil down 3.6% as rising supplies weighted on the price. With this downward move, light crude hit a fresh monthly low of $91.77 and broke not only below the short-term support, but also the medium-term one. Although we noticed a pullback which took the price to slightly below $94 on Friday, light crude posted its seventh weekly loss in eight weeks. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that the oil-to-oil-stocks ratio will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update

    November 26, 2013, 1:35 PM

    After sixth straight weeks of losses, light crude posted its first weekly gain in seven weeks, as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data eased concerns over the health of the world’s largest oil consumer. Although crude oil dropped to a fresh monthly low in the previous week, the long-, medium- and short-term support finally encouraged oil bulls to act. We noticed a pullback which took light crude to its first important resistance. Despite yesterday’s drop, the buyers managed to stop further deterioration and hold the November low. Taking this fact into account, oil investors are probably asking the same question once again: Is the final bottom of the recent corrective move already in or not?

    Today, we examine the current technical picture of the oil market to see if there’s anything on the horizon that could drive the price of light crude higher or lower in the near future. Is it possible that the stocks-to-oil ratio analysis will give us some interesting clues? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Double Bottom in Crude Oil or Further Declines?

    November 19, 2013, 7:53 AM

    Crude oil posted its sixth straight week of losses last week as rising inventories pushed light crude to its new monthly low of $92.51. In the previous week, crude oil lost 0.65% and dropped to the levels that we saw back in June. Despite this decline, light crude remains above important long-, medium- and short-term support. Although we saw a pullback on Thursday, it was too small to say that the situation had improved – which was confirmed by the price action that we saw in the following days. Yesterday, light crude almost reached the November low and oil investors are probably wondering whether the final bottom of the recent corrective move is already in or not. Today, we examine the current technical picture of the oil market to see if there’s anything on the horizon that could drive the price of light crude higher or lower in the near future. Is it possible that the crude oil-oil-stocks link and the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio analysis will give us some interesting clues? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Consolidation in Crude Oil - Calm Before the Storm?

    November 12, 2013, 9:40 AM

    After several weeks of declines, crude oil hit a fresh monthly low of $ 93.07. With this downward move, light crude reached an important long-, medium- and short-term support levels. Although we’ve seen improvement in the recent days, investors are probably wondering whether the final bottom of the recent corrective move is already in or not. What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Will we see further growth in the nearest future? Would this result in higher levels of the oil stock index? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Is It Time for Growth or Final Bottom in Crude Oil?

    November 5, 2013, 12:18 PM

    The first days of the new month have been hard for oil bulls. After the breakdown below the lower border of the declining trend channel the buyers didn’t manage to stop oil bears. The bears showed their claws on Thursday and pushed the price below the October low. This event resulted in a heavy decline, which took light crude below $95. On top of that, yesterday we saw further deterioration and crude oil dropped to a new monthly low of $94.06. Taking these facts into account, investors are probably wondering where the final bottom of the current correction is. Will we see it in the nearest future? Is it possible that the light-crude-to-oil-stock-index ratio will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Will Crude Oil Drop Any Further?

    October 29, 2013, 12:43 PM

    Another hard week for oil bulls is behind us. In the previous week we saw significant deterioration. The price of crude oil not only dropped below the psychological barrier of $100, but also reached a new four-month low of $95.95. In spite of this drop, the buyers managed to push light crude higher at the end of the last week. On Monday, we saw further improvement and crude oil closed higher for the third day in row. Can light crude move higher in the nearest future? Is it possible that that the dollar and the oil stock index will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Crude Oil and Its Connections with the U.S. Dollar

    October 21, 2013, 11:50 AM

    Looking at the chart of crude oil from today’s point of view, we can say that last week was hard for the buyers. Although light crude still remains in the narrow range between $100 and $104 per barrel, oil bears managed to push crude oil to its new monthly low of $100.03. In the previous week, light crude lost 0.86% and this is its lowest weekly close since June. Additionally, the breakdown below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level was confirmed. Did this event have as negative an impact on light crude as it seems at the first sight? Can oil move lower in the nearest future? Is it possible that that the dollar will give us some interesting clues? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Crude Oil and Its Correlation with Oil Stocks and Gold

    October 14, 2013, 11:42 AM

    Without a doubt, the previous week was quite hard for the market players. When we take a closer look at the chart of crude oil, we clearly see that the price of light crude remains in the narrow range between $100 and $104 per barrel. Since the beggining of the month oil bulls and bears have pushed it above or below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, however, neither the buyers nor the sellers have had enough strength to win and trigger another bigger move. Will we see a breakthrough in the following days? Are there any technical factors that may have an impact on crude oil? Has anything changed in the relation between light crude and gold? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Further Declines or a Rally in Crude Oil?

    October 7, 2013, 10:28 AM

    Looking at the chart of crude oil from today’s point of view, we can say that the first week of a new month and a new quarter was quite good for oil bulls. Although, we saw a drop below the August low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the buyers didn’t give up and stopped further declines, which resulted in an increase to a weekly high of $104.38. In the previous week, light crude gained 0.87% and closed higher for a first time in four weeks. What impact did this growth have on light crude’s chart? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Can oil climb higher in the nearest future? Would this result in higher levels of the oil stock index? Could they have any implications for gold? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Oil Investment Update: Will Downside Price Action in Crude Oil Continue?

    September 30, 2013, 9:13 AM

    Tensions in the Middle East have always had an impact on everyday life around the world through their effect on the price of oil. During the last month we saw this impact very clearly. At the beginning of September, the price of light crude dropped as fears of U.S. military action against Syria faded. In the following days, crude oil declined as Libya's production recovered to nearly 40% of pre-war capacity. Higher crude oil output in Iraq was an additional bearish factor, which pushed the price lower. In the previous week, investors watched closely all the US-Iran news. On Friday, the price of oil fell as tensions eased between the United States and Iran after the Obama-Rouhani talks.

    What impact did these events have on the price of light crude?

    Looking at the chart of crude oil from today’s point of view, we can conclude that September was a hard month for oil bulls. After the June-August rally, which resulted in a new 17-month high, the situation in the oil market deteriorated. The price of light crude dropped from the September high at $110.70 to a new monthly low at $102.20 per barrel. With this move, crude oil has lost nearly 5% so far this month and declined for a third straight week. 

    What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Can oil climb higher in the nearest future once again or is the final top behind us? How does the relationship between light crude and the oil stocks look like? Could lower prices of crude oil have any implications for gold? We invite you to check our Oil Investment Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Short-Term Breakdown – What Changed and What Didn't

    September 24, 2013, 10:49 AM

    In spite of bullish EIA oil data, which showed that inventories hit their lowest level since March 2012, and an unexpected Fed’s statement, light crude lost more than 3% in the previous week. One-day rally on Wednesday was not enough to push the price of crude oil above $109 per barrel. In the following days, the combination of oil bulls’ weakness and news from the Middle East triggered a correction which took light crude below $105. What impact did the recent decline have on the crude oil’s chart? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Can oil climb higher in the nearest future once again? Would this result in higher levels of the oil index? Could they have any implications for gold? We invite you to check our Oil Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Will the Short-Term Link Between Crude Oil and Gold Wane?

    September 16, 2013, 10:51 AM

    In August crude prices surged on fears that unrest in Syria might spread to other parts of the Middle East, disrupting supplies. Then we saw a decline after Russia’s proposal raised the chance that a U.S. military strike would be delayed or averted. However, that was not the end of changes. Investors’ worries about whether diplomatic efforts would avert military action pushed the price of crude oil higher once again. Finally, the United States and Russia agreed to back a nine-month U.N. program to destroy Syrian chemical arsenal. Some investors could call it a roller-coaster. Looking at these events it is tempting to say that we have a relatively peaceful outcome so far: no war, no bombs, no oil disruptions. But is it good for price of crude oil?

    Uncertainty around Syria was the major factor, which has driven the prices in the recent weeks. What will happen if Syria moves out of news? Investors will move their attention to other events. And what is the most important event of the week? Of course, the FOMC meeting. On Wednesday, we’ll know answers to questions that trouble investors for weeks. However, before this happen, we want introduce you to the current situation in light crude and oil stocks. We also examined the relationship between them and the short-term link between crude oil and gold. Has anything changed in these relations? We invite you to check today’s Oil Update.

  • Oil Investment Update: Oil's Relationship with Oil Stocks and Gold

    September 9, 2013, 8:40 AM

    Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, we clearly see that significant changes occurred at the beginning and at the end of last week. In both cases the major factor which fueled the oil market was the uncertainty surrounding the Syrian conflict. On Friday, crude oil climbed above $110 per barrel and closed at its highest level since May 2011. It is oil’s largest weekly percentage gain since July 5. It is also the largest daily percentage gain since August 27. What impact did the recent growth have on the light crude’s chart? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? Can oil climb higher in the nearest future? Would this result in higher levels of the oil index? Could they have any implications for gold? We invite you to check our Oil Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: No Breakout So Far, but the Trend Remains in Place

    September 2, 2013, 10:40 AM

    The crude market is always sensitive to Middle East conflict. As you remember, prices rose to $115 on the unrest in Libya two years ago and to $110 on Iran’s nuclear program. In the previous week we saw similar price action.

    On Wednesday, light crude surged to its highest level since May 2011 and reached over $112 per barrel on concerns that the conflict in Syria would spread and threaten exports from a region which accounts for 35 percent of the world oil production.

    However, in the following days, the price of light crude declined as the prospect of imminent attacks on Syria receded. Should we believe that the Syrian conflict poses only a short-term risk and without its impact the price of light crude will drop further? Are there any other factors, which may have an impact on future oil prices? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Update. Have a nice read.

  • Oil Investment Update: Oil, Oil Stocks, and Oil-Gold Link

    August 27, 2013, 7:00 AM

    In July the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the underlying strength in the U.S. economic data and the speculation about shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles have resulted in a rally. It took the price of light crude not only above the psychological barrier of $100, but also resulted in a new local top at $108.93 per barrel.

    Since then, the situation hasn’t changed much and crude oil is still trading in a narrow range between the June top and the August bottom. It seems that investors are reluctant to make a major move until the Federal Reserve clearly signals its intentions.

    On the one hand, last week’s positive global economic data improved the outlook for oil consumption and resulted in an increase above $106 per barrel on an intraday basis on Friday. On the other hand, the same data raised fears that the Federal Reserve may start tapering its commodities-supportive stimulus measures as early as September.

    What’s next? Can oil climb above $110 in the near term? Will it result in higher levels of the oil index? Or maybe the oil bears will return and trigger a deeper correction? If crude oil moves lower, will it trigger lower prices in oil stocks? Or maybe these relationships do not look as they seem at the first sight? Could they have any implications for gold?

    Today, we take a look at the charts from different vantage points. If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's Oil Update.

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