...and it's not the euro. The British pound has barely moved, and the Australian dollar is swinging widely. Can the opportunity be in another commodity currency? Yes, and as it hangs in the balance, read on to discover whether we went short or long, and why.

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

• EUR/USD: none
• GBP/USD: none
• USD/JPY: none
• USD/CAD: long (a stop-loss order at 1.3172; the initial upside target at 1. 3341)
• USD/CHF: none
• AUD/USD: none

EUR/USD

While the euro declined yesterday, it's still trading inside the blue consolidation. Therefore, the overall situation remains unchanged. Earlier today, the pair has bounced from its yesterday's lows and from the support area created by the lower border of the blue consolidation and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

USD/CAD

Although USD/CAD moved lower in the previous days, the sellers had visible problems taking it below the lower border of the rising green trend channel.

Yesterday, the pair moved lower and slipped below this support, but the bulls triggered a rebound and invalidated the earlier tiny breakdown before the day's close. As a result, the exchange rate finished the day back inside the trend channel, which encouraged the bulls to overpower their opponents also earlier today.

Such price action increases the probability of further improvement in the coming day(s). Should it be the case and the pair goes on to rise from here, we'll see a test of the upper border of the green trend channel as a minimum. This level currently intersects the resistance based on the last week's peak. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator is very close to invalidate its earlier sell signal - this would also support the bulls.

Connecting the dots, opening long positions is justified from the risk/reward perspective. All details below.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss order at 1.3172 and the initial upside target at 1. 3341 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD rose on Monday once again, and climbed to the previously broken lower border of the declining red trend channel. This verification of the earlier breakdown below it encouraged the bears to act again earlier today.

Let's quote our Tuesday's commentary:

(...) Nonetheless, the pair is still trading inside the declining grey trend channel and above the early-2019 low. The daily indicators have also just flashed their buy signals, hinting at a possible reversal around the corner.

But as long as there's no breakout above the lower border of the declining red trend channel, a bigger move to the upside is questionable. Therefore, opening long positions isn't justified from the risk/reward perspective.

What could happen if the bulls fail in the above-mentioned support area? Then, further deterioration and even a test of the green support zone seen (created by the late 2008 and early 2009 lows) would lie ahead.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We will keep you informed should anything change, or should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.

Summing up the Alert, the euro again bounced from supports earlier today, and remains trading inside its recent consolidation - no new positions are justified. USD/CAD appears on the verge of an upside reversal, and the mounting bullish clues lead us to opening long positions. Apart from these, there're no other opportunities worth acting upon in the currencies. As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - informed.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist