currency and forex trading

nadia-simmons

Has the Euro Found Support, or Is It too Early to Declare a Bottom?

August 2, 2019, 12:07 PM Nadia Simmons

This far from being only about the euro. Currencies are presenting us with so many moves that it's actually hard to crown any day for the most interesting action. For instance today, we've adjusted several of our profitable open trade parameters. Let's dive in to the rich details.

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

  • EUR/USD: short (a stop-loss order at 1.1165; the exit downside target at 1.0980)
  • GBP/USD: none
  • USD/JPY: short (a fresh stop-loss order at 107.92; the next downside target at 106.40)
  • USD/CAD: none
  • USD/CHF: short (a stop-loss order at 1.0021; the initial downside target at 0.9815)
  • AUD/USD: none

EUR/USD

EUR/USD reversed its decline, rebounding during recent hours. This has taken the pair to the previously-broken green zone, which serves now as the nearest resistance.

Such price action looks like a verification of the earlier breakdown and suggests that another attempt to move lower may be just around the corner - especially when we factor in the head and shoulders formation, which is underway.

How low could the pair go? In our opinion, the next downside target for the sellers will be around 1.0980, which is where the size of the downward move would correspond to the height of the above-mentioned formation.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): short positions with a stop-loss order at 1.1165 and the exit downside target at 1.0980 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

USD/JPY

We wrote these words regarding the orange resistance zone in our Wednesday's commentary:

(...) The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has stopped the bulls (...) Combined with the current position of the daily indicators, lower values of the pair are probably just around the corner.

USD/JPY has indeed moved sharply lower yesterday, declining not only below our initial downside target and closing the day below it, but also below the green support zone.

Earlier today, the exchange rate extended losses and slipped slightly below the June low, making our short positions even more profitable.

What's next? Taking into account the sell signals generated by the daily indicators, another downswing appears still ahead of us. How low could the pair go? In our opinion, the next downside target for the bears will be the turquoise support zone marked on the chart below.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): already profitable short positions with a fresh stop-loss order at 107.92 (we lowered it to protect some of our yesterday's gains) and the next downside target at 106.40 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

USD/CHF

We wrote these words in our Wednesday's commentary:

(...) The current position of the daily indicators and today's attempt to move below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement suggest that further deterioration may be just around the corner.

USD/CHF invalidated the earlier tiny intraday breakout above the previous peak and the pink resistance zone. These bearish developments triggered further deterioration earlier today, making our short positions even more profitable. The sell signals of the daily indicators continue supporting the bears.

Taking all the above into account and combining it with the current position of the daily indicators, lower values of the exchange rate are likely still ahead of us and we're set to see at least a drop to our initial downside target in the following week.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): already profitable short positions with a stop-loss order at 1.0021 and the initial downside target at 0.9815 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Summing up the Alert, the euro decline has given way to stabilization and higher values earlier today. The previously activated head and shoulders formation keeps pointing to lower values, though an adjustment to the trade parameters of the profitable short position is in order. USD/JPY has profoundly rolled over to the downside, making our short positions more profitable - as well warranting the waiting orders' update. USD/CHF has also powerfully rolled over to the downside yesterday and earlier today - the short position remains justified. Apart from these, there're no other opportunities worth acting upon in the currencies. As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - informed.

Thank you.

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist

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