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September 6, 2013, 7:13 AM
Investors await key U.S. economic data releases today. Will the current uptrend hold?
September 5, 2013, 8:38 AM
Last week, crude oil reached its highest peak this year at $112.24. However, it declined to $104.21 earlier this week when military action against Syria became less certain. Did this drop change the outlook for crude oil? Can oil climb above $110 in the near term once again? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
September 5, 2013, 7:28 AM
It seems that all eyes and ears are focused on the prospect of military strikes in Syria. Yesterday’s events stimulated safe-haven buying in gold once again and resulted in an increase in price to above $1,416 an ounce. Did this strength change anything in the overall outlook? Is it possible that the copper and palladium charts will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
September 5, 2013, 7:27 AM
Investors await Friday’s unemployment releases as economic data expectations overshadow Syrian crisis. S&P500 at the resistance level.
September 4, 2013, 10:24 AM
As always, there are many ways in which the situation can develop and in today’s article (and to a much greater extend in the current Market Overview report) we will focus on what is probably the most important factor that will to a great extent determine what will happen in the coming months, not just in the precious metals market, but also in bonds, stocks and real estate markets.
Yes, you guessed correctly – we are going to discuss the Fed’s possible actions and the probable effects on the markets. Will we actually see any form of tapering or will we just hear about it? If so how will remarks made by the Fed impact actual events? As you know, very often what Bernanke or some other Fed official says can ignite large price moves. So, for the analysis to be complete, we should focus not only on what happens but also on how it is announced.
In today’s article we will feature one of these scenarios in greater detail. Namely, we will discuss what would likely happen if the Fed froze the program and went into “stand by” mode because of positive news.
September 4, 2013, 7:59 AM
Indexes continue to consolidate as investors await economic releases and the outcome of the Syrian crisis. S&P500 in a week-long horizontal trend.
September 3, 2013, 2:23 PM
In the previous week gold rose as high as $1,433.31 on speculation of a strike against Syria. It was yellow metal’s highest level since mid-May. However, as the prospect of an imminent attack on Syria receded, gold gave up some gains and dropped below $1,400 an ounce on Friday. Will these circumstances reduce its appeal as a safe haven? It’s seems quite possible at the moment. Today, the shiny metal extended losses to a third session and remains below $1,400. Will this drop trigger further dips? What’s the current outlook for gold? What impact could the dollar and the euro have on future prices of the yellow metal? Could they drive gold prices higher or lower in the near term? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today’s essay.
September 3, 2013, 6:51 AM
Stocks may bounce after the holiday weekend, however, the market sentiment has somewhat cooled down amid fears of Syrian conflict. Investors await Friday’s unemployment data release.
September 2, 2013, 10:40 AM
The crude market is always sensitive to Middle East conflict. As you remember, prices rose to $115 on the unrest in Libya two years ago and to $110 on Iran’s nuclear program. In the previous week we saw similar price action.
On Wednesday, light crude surged to its highest level since May 2011 and reached over $112 per barrel on concerns that the conflict in Syria would spread and threaten exports from a region which accounts for 35 percent of the world oil production.
However, in the following days, the price of light crude declined as the prospect of imminent attacks on Syria receded. Should we believe that the Syrian conflict poses only a short-term risk and without its impact the price of light crude will drop further? Are there any other factors, which may have an impact on future oil prices? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? We invite you to check our Oil Update. Have a nice read.
September 2, 2013, 6:46 AM
Indexes may rebound as market sentiment warms up at the beginning of a new month. Investors react to Syrian crisis developments, waiting for Friday’s unemployment report.
August 30, 2013, 12:04 PM
Since Wednesday’s top gold has lost over $33 and dropped below $1,400 per ounce, as the probability of an immediate U.S. strike on Syria has faded. Taking this into account, it seems that markets overestimated the probability of an invasion. What’s next? Can gold decline without disturbing news from the Middle East? Is it possible that the stock market and mining stocks will give us some interesting clues? We invite you to read our today's essay.
August 30, 2013, 7:50 AM
Downtrend reversal or just a correction? Strong economic releases outweigh Syria worries
August 29, 2013, 11:54 AM
In the recent days, the rupee has become the worst performer among Asian emerging-market currencies, despite the government and central bank attempts to support it. The rupee has lost more than 16 percent against the dollar so far in 2013, causing a sharp rally in gold. On Wednesday, the yellow metal priced in rupees hit its highest level since 1985. Investors are probably wondering what to do next. Will this relationship between gold and the Indian rupee last longer? Or maybe it will wane? Will gold prices climb up once again and reach the next psychological barrier at Rs 100,000 ahead of the busy marriage and festival season? Before we know the answers to these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay and find out what the current outlook for gold priced in rupees is.
August 29, 2013, 7:25 AM
Market sentiment strengthens slightly as stocks rebound after Tuesday’s sell-off. Investors await U.S. economic data announcements
August 28, 2013, 12:20 PM
In the recent three weeks we saw a rally in gold which pushed prices up to the highest level since May 14. So far, in August gold has achieved its biggest monthly climb since January 2012. Does this growth change the outlook for the yellow metal? What’s next? Can gold climb higher in the near term? Is it possible that the dollar and mining stocks will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
August 28, 2013, 7:17 AM
Stocks fall as tensions over Syria rise. S&P500 extends its August downtrend, drifting further away from all-time highs.
August 27, 2013, 7:00 AM
In July the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the underlying strength in the U.S. economic data and the speculation about shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles have resulted in a rally. It took the price of light crude not only above the psychological barrier of $100, but also resulted in a new local top at $108.93 per barrel.
Since then, the situation hasn’t changed much and crude oil is still trading in a narrow range between the June top and the August bottom. It seems that investors are reluctant to make a major move until the Federal Reserve clearly signals its intentions.
On the one hand, last week’s positive global economic data improved the outlook for oil consumption and resulted in an increase above $106 per barrel on an intraday basis on Friday. On the other hand, the same data raised fears that the Federal Reserve may start tapering its commodities-supportive stimulus measures as early as September.
What’s next? Can oil climb above $110 in the near term? Will it result in higher levels of the oil index? Or maybe the oil bears will return and trigger a deeper correction? If crude oil moves lower, will it trigger lower prices in oil stocks? Or maybe these relationships do not look as they seem at the first sight? Could they have any implications for gold?
Today, we take a look at the charts from different vantage points. If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's Oil Update.
August 27, 2013, 6:58 AM
Stocks fall amid Syria fears, economic data. Investors take profits after recent move up
August 26, 2013, 10:52 AM
There has been a lot of talk about the divergence between the gold physical markets and the financial markets. There are those who spout conspiracy theories how financial institutions (including central banks) are manipulating the gold market (and as someone observed that should not come as a surprise since central banks manipulate bond markets and interest rates every day). How much these statements are true is a separate issue, yet there is in fact some level of discrepancy between the financial market and the real market (which overall in the longer run disappears). This discrepancy can help us separate short run speculations from long run movements.
August 26, 2013, 7:02 AM
Trend reversal or just a pullback? S&P500 still below the August 15 daily gap as investors fear Fed tapering
August 23, 2013, 10:00 AM
Without a doubt, the Fed’s debate over when to cut its monthly asset purchase program has roiled all financial markets. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting, released on Wednesday, suggest that Fed officials are “still in line for September tapering”. What impact did this have on the general stock market? Is the final top behind us or maybe we will see new historical highs? What impact could such circumstances have on future precious metals moves? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
August 23, 2013, 8:13 AM
Investors await Jackson Hole Fed Conference speeches as the indexes rebound from recent losses. Will this uptrend hold?
August 22, 2013, 6:45 AM
Indexes extend recent correction, still with no clear short-term trend reversal signal. Investors await further economic data announcements, fearing end of Fed stimulus.
August 21, 2013, 12:18 PM
Without a doubt, the most important event this week will be the release of Fed’s minutes today. Investors will look closely at the minutes for clues as to when and by how much the central bank will cut its monthly asset purchase program in response to stronger economic growth. Will Fed surprise the markets once again? What’s next? Will the precious metals market be very sensitive to what happens after that event? Will the minutes trigger a further rally or a decline? Before we'll know the answers to these questions, we invite you to read today's essay.
August 21, 2013, 7:18 AM
Indexes fluctuate after last week’s drop. Will the June-August uptrend’s correction deepen?
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