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December 13, 2013, 12:00 PM
In one of our previous essays we considered what implications for gold the collapse of the dollar or the euro would have. Today, we discuss a different scenario: one in which the currencies hold up in spite of the enormous debt burden. Are the perspectives rosy for precious metals even if the greenback and euro don't deteriorate completely? We give you some reasons why investing in gold may be a good idea even if serious changes in the global currency system are not just round the corner.
December 13, 2013, 6:35 AM
This week was full of action for precious metals investors and traders. Gold, mining stocks, and (especially) silver rallied in the first days of the week only to disappoint on Wednesday and Thursday. No wonder; the rally didn’t have “strong legs” as gold’s strength was meager compared to that seen in the euro - another USD alternative.
In today’s essay we will provide you with 3 gold-related charts; each will tell a different story about gold’s performance, but ultimately, they will all point in the same direction.
December 12, 2013, 12:00 PM
The dollar's "imminent" collapse has been discussed for years now. How can you stay protected in case the unlikely does in fact materialize? What about the euro?
December 12, 2013, 10:00 AM
In our last essay on oil stocks, we checked the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio to find out what impact it could have on future oil stocks’ moves. Back then, we emphasized the strong positive correlation between the ratio and the oil stock index in recent months. Taking into account the fact that we have seen a downward move, which took the ratio below the lower line of the gap between the April 2009 low and May 2009 high, we've decided to find out what impact this event had on the oil stock index. We invite you to check our today’s essay. Have a nice read.
December 10, 2013, 1:33 PM
In our previous essay, we examined the situation in crude oil in different time horizons. Back then, we wrote that the short-term situation had improved as crude oil had broken above both short-term resistance lines on relatively high volume and had come back above the previously-broken medium-term support line and the long-term one. In the following days, crude oil extended gains and approached its 200-day moving average. What’s next? Is the worst already behind oil bulls and we will see further improvement? Is it possible that three ratios will give us clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
December 9, 2013, 12:23 PM
The American central bank is still planning to make sure that the banking system has enough Dollars at hand to keep them afloat. What may change is the tool affecting that process.
December 6, 2013, 7:20 AM
The precious metals sector was weak in the previous weeks and it remains weak today as well. Gold, silver, and – to some extent – mining stocks rallied on Wednesday and many investors and traders were led to believe that the worst was over. Is it?
December 5, 2013, 3:11 PM
November was another hard month for oil bulls. Market participants pushed crude oil down 3.6% as rising supplies weighted on the price. With this downward move, light crude hit a fresh monthly low of $91.77 and broke not only below the short-term support, but also the medium-term one. Despite this deterioration, this week, crude oil rebounded and rallied to a fresh five-week high for a fourth straight session of gains. Does this mean that investor sentiment is improving? Could we see further growth in light crude? What is the current technical picture for the oil market? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
December 4, 2013, 1:28 PM
In our previous commentary, we focused on the U.S dollar, the euro and their impact on precious metals. Since that essay was posted, gold, silver and mining stocks have extended their declines and dropped to fresh monthly lows. Will they drop any further in the short term? We want you to be effective and profitable investors. That's why we take a look at the situation from different perspective and examine gold and silver mining stocks to find out what kind of impact they can have on precious metals’ future moves. We invite you to read our today's essay.
December 2, 2013, 12:22 PM
In our previous essay on the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio, we focused on its implications for crude oil. Back then, we wrote that there was a strong negative correlation between the ratio and the price of light crude, and if the ratio declined, we would likely see the bottom of the current correction. However, taking into account bearish signals from the oil stocks index charts, we’ve decided to check this ratio to find out what impact it could have on future oil stocks’ moves. We invite you to check our today’s essay. Have a nice read.
December 2, 2013, 11:55 AM
The certain fact is that Yellen is ready to continue with Fed’s expansionary operations.
November 29, 2013, 11:21 AM
At the beginning of the week, gold, silver and mining stocks declined and dropped to their fresh monthly lows. Although we’ve seen some improvement in recent days, precious metals still have been trading in the narrow range. Is this a sign of strength or just a pause before the major plunge? Is it possible that the dollar and euro will give us some interesting clues once again? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 27, 2013, 11:28 AM
Earlier this week, after four straight weeks of losses, silver extended its declines and hit a fresh monthly low. With this downward move, the white metal reached its initial downside target created by the long-term support line. Taking this fact into account, investors are probably wondering what comes next. Will this important support stop further declines and encourage buyers to act? Or maybe, silver will test the strength of the next support level in the near future? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 26, 2013, 4:02 PM
Although crude oil dropped to a fresh monthly low in the previous week, it seems that the long-, medium- and short-term support levels finally encouraged oil bulls to act. We have noticed a pullback, which took light crude to its first important resistance. Despite yesterday’s drop, the buyers managed to stop further deterioration and hold the November low. Does this mean that investor sentiment is improving? Will the market players be more likely to buy crude oil? Or maybe light crude will drop once again in the coming days? Is it possible that the stocks-to-oil ratio will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 25, 2013, 6:37 AM
It is always worthwhile to study previous careers of potential central bankers in order to understand their future role in case they get elected (Alan Greenspan being a proud exception to that rule!). It is therefore advisable to see past interpretations and opinion of Janet Yellen.
November 22, 2013, 10:34 AM
In our previous essay, we examined the situation in silver. On the same day, after the essay was posted, the white metal dropped below $20, hit a fresh three-month low and moved very close to the declining support line that we had featured in that essay. Additionally, we also saw drops in case of gold and mining stocks. Today, we will examine three interesting long-term charts. Is it possible that they will help us answer the big question: Is the final bottom for gold, silver and mining stocks already in? We invite you to read our today's essay.
November 21, 2013, 7:53 AM
In the previous week, crude oil lost 0.65% and dropped to the levels that we saw back in June. Despite this decline, light crude remains above important long-, medium- and short-term support. Although we’ve seen a pullback in recent days, it is too small to say that the situation has improved. Is the final bottom of the current correction behind us? Or maybe crude oil will extend declines in the coming days? Is it possible that the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 20, 2013, 10:02 AM
Without a doubt, the most important event this week will be the release of Fed’s minutes today. Investors will look closely at the minutes for clues as to when the central bank will cut its monthly asset purchase program in response to economic growth. Will Fed surprise the markets once again? What’s next? Will silver be very sensitive to what happens after that event? Will the minutes trigger a rally or a further decline? Before we know the answers to these questions, we invite you to read today's essay.
November 20, 2013, 4:17 AM
Although light crude moved lower once again and reached a new monthly low of $92.51 in the previous week, oil stocks didn’t follow this decline. They bounced off the bottom of the recent corrective move, pulled back and approached the 2013 high on Friday. In spite of Monday’s decline in light crude, the oil stock index climbed up once again and hit a fresh annual high. What’s next? Can the XOI climb higher in the near term? What is the current technical picture of oil stocks? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 18, 2013, 11:12 AM
In predicting the inflation rate, labor markets and GDP growth, Yellen has overshadowed the others. But what has been discussed recently is her statement back from 2005, when the real estate bubble was at its highest. Her reasonable observation was: there was a bubble.
November 15, 2013, 7:45 AM
In our most recent article on gold, USD and Euro Indices we wrote that the outlook for the yellow metal was bearish just as the outlook for the Euro Index and just as it was bullish for the USD Index. At this time – since all of the above-mentioned markets moved in the opposite way – you might be wondering if we are sticking to the above analysis. In the medium-term, we do, but not in the short run. In fact, earlier this week we told our subscribers to cash in the profits from the short positions as the bullish correction was quite likely to be seen. So, have metals bottomed?
November 14, 2013, 8:57 AM
In today’s essay we decided to examine one of the most interesting relationships present on the crude oil market – the one between oil stocks and other stocks. After all, oil stocks’ weakness relative to other stocks might indicate weakness in the entire oil sector. Can divergences tell us something about the future price moves in the crude oil sector? It turns out that this might be the case. You will find details in today’s essay.
November 12, 2013, 12:12 PM
The yellow metal has been trading below $1,300 since Friday and has fallen about 3% in the last four sessions as data on strong U.S. economic and jobs growth boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve will move to reduce its bond purchases and remove a long-running source of support from the gold market. Taking the above into account, investors are probably wondering whether the final bottom of the recent corrective move is already in or not. Will gold drop any further? Will it test the strength of the October low in the coming days? Is it possible that the dollar and euro will give us some interesting clues? If you want to know our take on these questions, we invite you to read our today's essay.
November 11, 2013, 8:47 AM
Without a doubt, the biggest news in recent weeks has been the upcoming replacement of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke by Janet Yellen, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors and a highly qualified economist who, many predict will continue in the Bernanke mold. Bernanke’s story is actually quite fascinating, and can teach us how to approach future Fed nominations.
November 8, 2013, 11:04 AM
In our Wednesday’s free essay we discussed the situation in the Euro Index and mining stocks. We wrote that the long-term downtrend in the Euro Index remains in place and that the short-term uptrend might already be over. We emphasized that, based on the precious metals’ correlations with the currency markets, the implications of the bearish outlook for the Euro Index are also bearish for gold, silver and mining stocks.
This was further confirmed by the analysis of the miners themselves (not only had the HUI Index reached its declining medium-term resistance line, but the same had been the case with the gold-stocks-to-gold ratio). In today’s article, we will further elaborate on the mining stock sector and discuss whether this week’s consolidation is really a sign of strength.
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