Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,510, and profit target at 2,300, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.1% and +0.3% on Tuesday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors hesitated following recent economic data releases, among others. The S&P 500 index got close to its late June local low at around 2,405 on Thursday. It has bounced off that support level. The index is now trading just 1.2% below its June 19 all-time high of 2,453.82. It reached new record high after a breakout above short-term consolidation along the level of 2,420-2,440. Stocks have rebounded sharply following their mid-May quick two-session sell-off and continued over eight-year-long bull market off 2009 lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged on Monday, as the blue-chip index remained close to 21,400 mark. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger again, as it gained 0.3%. It has retraced its last week's move down. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,425-2,430, marked by recent fluctuations. The next resistance level remains at 2,450-2,455, marked by all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its a month-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Positive Expectations

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.2-0.3% vs. yesterday's closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.7-0.9% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Crude Inventories at 10:30 a.m., Fed's Beige Book release at 2:00 p.m. The market expects that Crude Inventories fell 3.2M last week. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, following an overnight consolidation along yesterday's session closing price. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,425-2,430, marked by some recent local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,440-2,450, marked by all-time high. On the other hand, support level is at 2,420, and the next support level is at 2,400-2,410, marked by last week's local low. Which direction is next? Will the market break above short-term consolidation and continue eight-year-long bull market?

Techs Still Stronger

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday uptrend following yesterday's bounce off support level at around 5,670-5,700. The Nasdaq extends its short-term uptrend. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 5,750-5,780, marked by recent local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 5,700, and the next level of support remains at 5,670, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the S&P 500 index lost 0.1% on Tuesday, as it extended its short-term fluctuations along the level of 2,420. The broad stock market continues to trade along mid-June all-time high. Will the broad stock market break above short-term consolidation? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see negative technical divergences, along with some medium-term overbought conditions.

Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened at 2,437.83 on June 5 - opening price of the S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,510 and potential profit target is at 2,300 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

To summarize: short position in S&P 500 index is justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following entry prices, stop-loss orders and profit target price levels:

S&P 500 index - short position: profit target level: 2,300; stop-loss level: 2,510
S&P 500 futures contract (September) - short position: profit target level: 2,297; stop-loss level: 2,507
SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500, not leveraged) - short position: profit target level: $230; stop-loss level: $251
SDS ETF (ProShares UltraShort S&P500, leveraged: -2x) - long position: opening price: $12.56; profit target level: $13.98; stop-loss level: $11.82

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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