In short: no speculative positions.
Time surely flies. We have been posting Bitcoin Trading Alerts for more than five years now. What’s even more exciting, Bitcoin has been around 11 years. You read that right, 11 years. On October 31, 2008, 11 years ago to the day, the Bitcoin white paper was published. In an article on CoinDesk, we :
Halloween 2019 marks the eleventh anniversary of the release of the white paper for the first fully decentralized, peer-to-peer electronic cash by anonymous creator(s) Satoshi Nakomoto. In the wake of the Great Recession of 2007–2009, a single email for a small collective of cypherpunks proved to be the catalyst for a monetary revolution.
“I’ve been working on a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party,” Satoshi wrote to open his email, attaching the bitcoin white paper.
Rolling out bitcoin’s code the following January with the mining of the genesis block, bitcoin’s first year was inauspicious at best. Eleven years later, however, most metrics point towards a bright future. The white paper’s birthday month proved to be one of the best yet.
We wouldn’t read to much into the fact that Bitcoin has performed particularly well precisely in it’s birthday month. Sure, people could have gone a little bit more enthusiastic close to the anniversary, but we don’t think this is the major factor behind the move. And yet, the fact that Bitcoin has been able to survive so long and has actually significantly increased the interest of the investment public is a sign that the new asset class of digital currencies is probably here to stay, at least for the foreseeable.
On theBitStamp chart, we are seeing the recent appreciation quite clearly.
The recent jump in the price of Bitcoin took the currency above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and, even higher, above the 38.2% retracement. The move up was very significant in terms of the price – Bitcoin went up from the range of roughly $7,500 to the range of roughly $9,500. But there’s an even more important factor at play here. Namely, the volume was the most significant in 2019. Yup, the recent move up is the most significant move in terms of the volume in almost a year. So, all of this is very bullish. One factor which makes this slightly less bullish is that the currency is now right at the 38.2% retracement, which means that this levels has not yet been cleared as far as the bullish outlook is concerned.
Not Yet Bullish
On theBitfinex chart, the move is also quite visible.
On Bitfinex, we are seeing that the move up brought the currency above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Here, the story is pretty much the same as with the short-term picture – Bitcoin is at this level but hasn’t confirmed the breakout in a very convincing way. If we don’t see another move to the upside, the implications for the long-term might be very different than for the short term. If we see some more depreciation, the recent move up might be another in a series of lower highs, a potentially bearish sign.
Summing up, in our opinion not having speculative positions might be favorable at the moment. The recent appreciation has not yet flipped the situation to bullish.
Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no positions.
Bitcoin Trading Strategist