Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,240, and profit target at 2,060, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.4% on Tuesday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following recent advance. The S&P 500 index has reached yet another new all-time high at the level of 2,204.80. The nearest important support level is at 2,190-2,195, marked by previous level of resistance. The next important level of support remains at 2,170-2,180. The market continues to trade along its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat, with index futures currently down 0.1%. The main European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for series of economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Durable Orders at 8:30 a.m., FHFA Housing Price Index number at 9:00 a.m., Michigan Sentiment, New Home Sales at 10:00 a.m., Crude Inventories at 10:30 a.m., FOMC Minutes release at 2:00 p.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend, as it retraces some of its yesterday's move up. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,200-2,205, marked by local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 2,190, among others. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see short-term overbought conditions:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures follows a similar path, as it currently trades within an intraday downtrend. The nearest important level of resistance remains at 4,900-4,920, marked by record highs. On the other hand support level is at 4,800-4,850, marked by recent fluctuations, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the broad stock market has reached new all-time high yesterday, following last week's rally. We can see short-term overbought conditions, accompanied by negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on Wednesday, November 16 at 2,177 - opening price of the S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,240 and potential profit target is at 2,060 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

To summarize: short position in S&P 500 index is justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following entry prices, stop-loss orders and profit target price levels:

S&P 500 index - short position: profit target level: 2,060; stop-loss level: 2,240
S&P 500 futures contract - short position: profit target level: 2,055; stop-loss level: 2,235
SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500, not leveraged) - short position: profit target level: $206; stop-loss level: $224
SDS ETF (ProShares UltraShort S&P500, leveraged: -2x) - long position: profit target level: $18.38; stop-loss level: $15.64 (calculated using trade's opening price on Nov 16 at $16.6).

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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