Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.4% and +0.1% on Thursday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors reacted to some economic data releases. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along the level of 2,050. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,050, and the next support level is at 2,030-2,040, marked by previous local lows. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,080-2,085, marked by recent local highs. The next important level of resistance remains at 2,100-2,110, marked by late April highs. Last year's highs along the level of 2,100 continue to act as medium-term resistance level. Will the market break above these highs and continue its seven-year long bull market?

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.3%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.4% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Producer Price Index, Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m., Business Inventories, Michigan Sentiment number at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it extends its short-term uncertainty. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,045-2,050, marked by local lows. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,060-2,065, marked by some short-term local highs, among others. For now, it looks like a downward correction following recent move up:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract trades within a similar intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates along the level of 4,300. The nearest important level of support is at 4,300, and resistance level is at 4,350, marked by yesterday's local high, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market continues to trade within a short-term consolidation, as the S&P 500 index fluctuates along the level of 2,050. It still looks like a correction following February - April rally. The index remains relatively close to last year's medium-term highs along the level of 2,100 and continues to trade above its late March - early April local lows. It still looks like a correction within a medium-term uptrend, so we prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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