Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence. However, we decided to change our long-term outlook to neutral recently, following recent move down below medium-term lows:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.1-2.5% on Wednesday, extending their relatively volatile short-term consolidation, as investors reacted to Apple's quarterly earnings release, the FOMC's Rate Decision announcement. The S&P 500 index got back below the level of 1,900 again. The nearest important level of resistance remains at around 1,900-1,920, marked by recent local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 1,850-1,880, marked by local lows. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. The market fluctuates following first half of the month sell-off. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Last year's August - September lows continue to act as a medium-term support level, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.4-0.8%. The main European stock market indexes have lost 0.6-0.8% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data releases: Initial Claims, Durable Orders at 8:30 a.m., Pending Home Sales number at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces a part of its recent move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 1,900-1,920, marked by short-term local highs. On the other hand, support level remains at around 1,850. The market extends its short-term fluctuations, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract sold off yesterday, as investors reacted to Apple's quarterly earnings release. However, it has managed to retrace some of this decline today. It currently trades around one percent below 4,200 mark, as it extends its short-term consolidation. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,200-4,250, and support level is at 4,100, among others:

Concluding, the broad stock market retraced its Tuesday's move up yesterday, as investors reacted to Fed's decision announcement, quarterly earnings releases. The S&P 500 index extends its fluctuations following first half of the month move down. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. The index may continue to trade along its last year's August - September local lows for some time, as they act as a medium-term level of support. We still prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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