Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Thursday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors reacted to quarterly corporate earnings releases, among others. The S&P 500 index has managed to reach a new all-time high at the level of 2,120.49, which is slightly above its February top. The nearest important resistance level remains at around 2,120. On the other hand, level of support is at 2,090-2,100, marked by recent local lows. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.6%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.7% so far. Investors will now wait for the Durable Orders number release at 8:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday consolidation, following yesterday's move up. the nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,110-2,115 marked by local highs, and support level is at 2,09-2,100, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) remains relatively stronger, as it extends its long-term uptrend today. The nearest important support level is at around 4,480-4.490, marked by local lows, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its long-term uptrend yesterday, as the S&P 500 index got slightly above its February high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (2,098.27, S&P 500 index), as we expect a downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,140, and potential profit target is at 1,980. You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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