Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday
(next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.8-1.9% on Thursday, extending their short-term move up. The S&P 500 index has retraced its recent move down, as it bounced off support level at around 1,990-2,000. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,070-2,080, marked by some previous local extreme levels. The next level of resistance is at 2,090-2,100, marked by the December 29th all-time high of 2,093.55. For now, it looks like a volatile medium-term consolidation following last year’s October-November rally:
Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are virtually flat. The main European stock market indexes have lost 0.2-0.4% so far. Investors will now wait for some important economic data announcements: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate at 8:30 a.m., Wholesale Inventories number at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) is in an intraday consolidation, following yesterday’s move up. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,055-2,060. On the other hand, support level remains at 2,030-2,040, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is in a similar intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates along the level of 4,230. The nearest important level of support is at around 4,180-4,200, marked by previous resistance level, as the 15-minute chart shows:
Concluding, the broad stock market retraced most of its recent sell-off, as investors reacted to oil prices rebound, among others. For now, it looks like a volatile medium-term consolidation following last year’s October-November rally. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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