DEC 12 GOLD ALERT
The GLD ETF declined yesterday on volume that was greater than the volume that had accompanied Tuesday's rally even though the rally had been much bigger than the decline. This is a bearish sign, as it indicates that the volume that should have accompanied Tuesday's rally, should have been much higher than it actually was.
From the non-USD perspective (meaning the gold:UDN ratio), gold is at the rising medium-term support/resistance line after closing there last week, so at this time there is no meaningful breakout to speak of.
How much changed? How much of this could affect your portfolio? Sign up to our Premium Service and read more.
Dec Market Overview: Tapering Is Not Tightening: Decomposition of Tapering
Tapering is not the same as tightening even though everyone seems to view these terms as synonyms. We had previously described tapering as highly unlikely, but the truth is that it was an oversimplification that we used to make a point about the possibility of monetary policy tightening without getting into details - which we do in the December Market Overview.
Some form of “tapering” may actually happen even though the Fed stays “easy like Sunday morning” in its approach to money printing, and… One form of tapering has already been seen in 2010!
The truth is that there's much more to the tapering issue than just the Quantitative Easing program simply because there are more tools that the Fed uses than the QE itself:
- Interest rates are kept very low for a significant amount of time
- Quantitative easing, which means money production for support of various assets, especially government bonds
- Easing in terms of qualitative aspects, that is the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet which has benefited not only government bonds, but also mortgage backed securities
One of the most important questions for gold investors regarding Fed's policy is what could be tapered and what's highly unlikely to be tapered. The even more important question is how it will impact gold market and your portfolio. Subscribe and read the latest Market Overview report.
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